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Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by mudslag, Jul 29, 2016.
What is the RNC going to do with this guy Trump.
His base totally loves him for his crazy tweets and pressers. That's pretty clear if you look at some of the tweets.
But every time he caters to them anew, and then somehow what he said backfires and gets retracted or admonished by other (or should I say actual) Republicans, and all that gets played in a loop on media all over the country, another couple hundred Reagan Democrats sigh and say you know what I don't think I can vote for this guy.
And if you think those Democrats weren't the target of the Dem convention.. the flags, the faith references, the praise for conservative values of hard work and making it up the ladder...
I'm not saying the remnants of Reagan Democrats will vote for Clinton. Some might stay home. But Donald Trump needs them more than Hillary Clinton does. The RNC must be tearing its hair out watching Trump keep on keepin' on for his fans of loudmouth blustery bull, since they are too few by themselves to put him in office.
I'm dying to know if the big donors fest hosted by the Kochs will arrive at some decision to fund or not fund a candidate this year. That's some big pile of money still on the fence. Meanwhile Donald tweeting about a million dollar matching fund he'll put up a million if we collectively put up a million. Wow, an extra million bucks. Dropped into this campaign season, that's not even like one extra little drop of water splashing as you turn off the tap.
A curious thing that Rachel Maddow reported on tonight is that this big first weekend of the general election campaign has ZERO events for Pence or Trump. Shouldn't they be out there?
Also curious was this week they sent Don Jr. to Mississippi. Huh? Does the Trump campaign think that state is now a battleground?
Donald Trump received more primary votes than any Republican candidate ever, including Reagan. If there is one thing most Republicans hate more than Barack Obama it is Hillary Clinton. The last count that I looked at, the Republicans also had more voters in the primaries than Democrats did. I won’t try to predict what will happen this November, but don’t be surprised if Trump becomes president.
Updated 2 hours ago, after Hillary’s convention
FiveThirtyEight founder and still Editor in Chief
After Silver successfully called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009.
In 2010, the FiveThirtyEight blog was licensed for publication by The New York Times. In 2012 and 2013, FiveThirtyEight won Webby Awards as the "Best Political Blog" from the International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences.
In the 2012 United States presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, Silver correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Predicting election results for this November does seem very difficult, but I agree with you it's fun to watch how the polls move from day to day, week to week during the season.
Actually, though, I'd be very surprised if Mr. Trump wins this election. I am not sure he wants to win. I am not sure his party even wants him to win. I know some of the GOP voters don't want him to win.
And who the heck knows where Trump and Pence even are this weekend. Maybe they went to the high money donors gig the Kochs are supposed to be hosting and Pence had suddenly said he would not be attending. Well whatever. Maybe someone changed Pence's mind and roped Trump into going along too If he was invited, I mean. You have to be invited to show up at a Kochs event. Trump has been sort of rude to the Kochs this year, which beggars belief when I think about it.
The Trump campaign does need some funds if they're going to run against the Clinton juggernaut. I think the RNC will have to sink most of its money into the Senate races this year.
How about some electoral college predictions, transient though they may be. It just takes 270 to win it. Well that one to the far right looks especially promising for Trump. Only behind 3 to 2. But I got these off MSNBC so he could be doing maybe a litte better than shown, if Maddow's program leans a bit left
The image I posted above shows electoral college, and it has Trump winning.
You realize that what you posted is a dynamic site that changes from week to week right? I wouldn't get excited and count your chickens before they hatch just yet else you may be having a Karl Rove moment on election night.
The lower numbers for dem primaries doesn't mean much. Dems are notorious for only coming out to vote once every four years for Presidential elections. It's something we totally have to fix. One of our biggest problems.
Also another thing to consider is the voter ID laws that are getting struck down in state after state. No more limiting days of voting to target just one group. No more disenfranchising all those poor and black people anymore. Sorry!
I'm not saying Trump couldn't still win, because he could. But you have to ask yourself why he is spending campaign efforts in a red state like Mississippi this past week?
If you're a fan of Silver, how did you miss the bit where he said that the primaries had no predictive value for the general?
I saw Trumps response to Michael Bloomberg's speech. Trumps response about "hitting" was absolutely ridiculous. Bloomberg goes off with this very articulate and powerful speech... Trump sounds like a 7 year old. I don't think Trump is that stupid, never this inarticulate. It almost leaves me to believe his response is some sort of well researched reality-TV tactic... Creating this over the top emotional response to objective issues.
Or perhaps he's attempting to bait Bloomberg into have an emotional response- particularly the taunting of "Little". Bloomberg's may be 5'8"-5'9" but he's worth 4x+ what Trump claims to be worth (last I heard ~$40B vs. "10B") which should mean a lot to Trump.
I know Michael Bloomberg personally through my father and he's not going to respond to that nonsense- it really just makes Trump look bad. I stated long before the DNC Bloomberg has an extremely low opinion of Trump personally and professionally. And here we are.
Updated - they don't like Trump, still mulling Hillary:
One other thing:
I only parrot reports, you get to actually decide.
--- Post Merged, Jul 30, 2016 ---
So you and @LizKat both prove it's too early to tell. All Trump needs to do is focus on swing states, for which there are a few this year. Depending on which candidate screws up the most, which party feels the more apathetic, which individuals decide not to vote the way anticipated... lots of freasons.
It's going to be a close race.
--- Post Merged, Jul 30, 2016 ---
Better get the ball rolling. Good luck. Having been in a small community of sorts, it's not easy. The Democratic party is much larger and even less in solidarity with itself, as voting records in the past show. Like this one, from 2005: http://www.ontheissues.org/SenateVote/Party_2005-63.htm
P.S. Anyone is free to look up how both parties do a share of disenfranchising. No more partisan pattycake, people. Example: http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-b...art-still-disenfranchising-a-oppressing-votes
--- Post Merged, Jul 30, 2016 ---
That 538 chart shows only what would happen if the election were held today...and as we know, Nate Silver never relies solely on that kind of data. Here's his chart using a polls plus model, from that same link:
There's plenty of other data there as well, and much of it points to a Clinton victory.
It's looking like he may be victorious. If so, liberal progressives are in for a very rough time.
Very good points, seldom brought up.
- I don't think he wants to win. He thought he could gain notoriety for his brand (or just to satisfy his ego) from being the outsider who was too rebellious and brilliant to be accepted by the GOP.
As an example, he realises that he spoke too fast, and now he's been back-pedalling even on his most notorious promise: the cost of his wall went from an out of the blue 4 billion to 12 to 16 billion. Losing the election is the easy way out of all the pipe dreams he's been promising.
- His party doesn't want him to win. With him at the helm, all those years spent climbing the long, long ladder of brown-nosing are over and they'll have to start over. The tea party was bad enough, now they got this to deal with...
- Sane republican voters don't want him to win because, let's face it, he's a clown who will say anything, the US version of Boris Johnson, who will promise anything and disappear when it comes facing the outcome of their actions.
I also have to wonder if Pence knows the meaning of the word demagogue.
Come back next week after the first post-DNC polling data is incorporated into his model. Those polls are being conducted by the various polling agencies this weekend into the beginning of next week.
What?! For months you have been promising me a Hillary coronation!! Outrageous.
These polls are becoming impossible to keep up with.
I'm much more worried about the result than many of you. Trump could indeed win. His supporters will likely have a very high turnout.
Nope, it hasn’t been updated since 14 hours ago. If the election were today: Trump wins
Hey, remember the person who told me there was going to be a human sacrifice at the DNC convention? Didn't happen. The closest we came to that was Bernie falling on his sword.
52-48 is basically as good as a 50/50 chance.
I make no predictions what will happen this November. Today: Trump wins.
Ugh I loathe these posts that say X says Trump will win so HAH! and Y says Hillary will win so HAH! etc back and forth.
We will only truly know in November... Unless one of them has an enormous disaster.
I would otherwise assume a close race and perhaps some unexpected outcomes in voting.
And apparently a minute after you posted that it updated again: