Place your bets! Who win Iowa Primary?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by PracticalMac, Feb 1, 2016.

  1. PracticalMac macrumors 68030

    PracticalMac

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    #1
    Just for giggles! (if you can in this case)

    I bet Trump will squeak a win (though this a few day before, not just now).
    Rubio 2ed
    Cruz (gasp) 3ed.


    Hillary will be top-o-hill but Bernie rolling close after.
     
  2. bradl macrumors 68040

    bradl

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    #2

    My bet: no-one will win the Iowa Primary.

    BL.
     
  3. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    #3
    I'm such a stick in the mud when it comes to making predictions. I like Bradl's.

    Otherwise, let a little time pass and we'll find out soon enough.
     
  4. bradl macrumors 68040

    bradl

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    #4
    Won't matter. no-one will win the Iowa Primary. ;)

    BL.
     
  5. MisterKeeks macrumors 68000

    MisterKeeks

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    #5
    Sanders and Clinton will tie popular vote, Clinton gets more delegates.

    Trump will barely beat Cruz. Rubio a relatively distant third.
     
  6. MacNut macrumors Core

    MacNut

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  7. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #7
    I think Cruz and Hillary win tonight. America loses.
     
  8. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    #8
    Doh! Of course. Caucus.
     
  9. bradl macrumors 68040

    bradl

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    #9
    Exactly. :)

    BL.
     
  10. vrDrew macrumors 65816

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    #10
    If you take the time to learn how the Iowa CAUCUS system works


    and furthermore understand how unrepresentative Iowa as a state is of the rest of the United States; and that furthermore the Iowa caucus system itself is heavily influenced by evangelical Christians.....

    Then I think you have to conclude that no one wins the Iowa Caucuses. And that the rest of the United States, and potentially humanity itself loses by giving a ridiculous amount of power, influence, and attention to people who don't deserve it.
     
  11. nbs2 macrumors 68030

    nbs2

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    #11
    Beyond the visible of support and the judgement of others, can you help me understand how the evangelicals wield such strong influence on the system? I've been busy lately and living in a late primary state don't want to get my hopes dashed if my candidate withdraws.

    Anyway, the reason for my post was to ask about Iowa as a representative state. What state is really representative of the rest of the country? Maybe Ohio or Virginia, but even then not so much.
     
  12. vrDrew macrumors 65816

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    #12


    Its a combination of math and activism. The unusual format for the Caucus system (ie. you have to spend a couple of hours hanging around and talking to strangers) mean that relatively few people participate. In 2008, for instance, only 116,000 people (out of a population of about 3 million) took part in Iowa's GOP caucus . And 60% of them were Evangelical Christians. And of those Evangelicals who do participate, they tend to be the ones holding the most extreme views regarding the religious faith of potential Presidential nominees.
     
  13. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #13
    Who my heart says will win: Rubio & Bernie.
    Who my head says will win: Trump & Hillary.

    One caveat: the weather is getting kind of nasty and that might favor Bernie's younger and more enthusiastic cohort who are more likely to go out in the weather to support their man.
     
  14. tunerX Suspended

    tunerX

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    #14
    I would prefer Paul & Bernie, in my heart of hearts.
    Who I think... Trump & Hillary.
     
  15. AustinIllini macrumors demi-god

    AustinIllini

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    #15
    It will be Trump and Hillary. I feel like we're on a crash course towards Hillary v Trump.
     
  16. Huntn macrumors G5

    Huntn

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    #16
    GO Cruz! He's ahead 30% to Trump's 27% at 8pm Central time.
     
  17. nbs2 macrumors 68030

    nbs2

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    #17
    So it isn't systemic control so much as participatory control. I don't fall in line with too many of their views, and even fewer in some cases, but I can't fault them for that.

    If you aren't showing up, you lose the right to complain - be it at work or the political realm. If prefer that alignments remain hidden, but I do like the interaction. That level of engagement is what makes a community more than a collection of individuals.
     
  18. mrkramer macrumors 603

    mrkramer

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    #18
    Unfortunately my prediction is Cruz will win. Probably Trump in second, but I'm hoping Rubio can pull off a second place at least. For the Democrats I think it'll be close, but Clinton will come out ahead.
     
  19. thewap macrumors demi-god

    thewap

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    #19
    If any of the bozos who the media is pushing wins - we lose.
     
  20. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #20
    No way does O'Malley make the 15% cut so it will be interesting to see if his supporters go to Hillary or Bernie. They could be the kingmaker.
     
  21. sodapop1 Suspended

    sodapop1

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    #21
    Interesting theory if all the voters weren't already there caucusing for the last couple hours. Maybe the old folks will just go home early and not vote. :rolleyes:
     
  22. AustinIllini macrumors demi-god

    AustinIllini

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    #22
    I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm so happy that Cruz is winning Iowa.
     
  23. MacNut macrumors Core

    MacNut

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    #23
    So Trump lost yuuuuge. Where is our resident supporter?
     
  24. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #24
    Cruz wins by a large margin, not the 1% percent experts said would happen, Trump and Rubio tied for 2nd 4.5 percentage points back. Cruz is as narcissistic as Trump and he will get grandiose over this and make the mistake that the rest of America will choose him first.

    Clinton and Sanders about even, still too early to tell. Clinton was up by three percent but may not even lead by half a percent at this point, 10:30 PM EST.
    --- Post Merged, Feb 1, 2016 ---
    There appears to be a movement towards Sanders. He has made up nearly 2.5% percent from the 3% percent hole he was in not too long ago this evening. 3% percent is huge, 2% percent fairly significant, but less than 1% percent, a razor thin margin as CNN calls it, looks good for Sanders. O'Malley is mildly anti-establishment and Clinton is as establishment as they get, behind Jeb Bush of course.

    I am crossing my fingers for Sanders.
     
  25. Wild-Bill macrumors 68030

    Wild-Bill

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    #25
    Bernie or bust ! Hillary is as crooked as a question mark.
     

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