Politico/Quinnipiac: Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Jess13, Jul 13, 2016.

  1. Jess13 Suspended

    Jess13

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    Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/07/trump-has-edge-in-key-states-225442

    Did Donald Trump really just surge past Hillary Clinton in two of the election's most important battlegrounds?

    New swing-state polls released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University show Trump leading Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania — and tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio. In three of the states that matter most in November, the surveys point to a race much closer than the national polls, which have Clinton pegged to a significant, mid-single-digit advantage over Trump, suggest.

    The race is so close that it's within the margin of error in each of the three states. Trump leads by three points in Florida — the closest state in the 2012 election — 42 percent to 39 percent. In Ohio, the race is tied, 41 percent to 41 percent. And in Pennsylvania — which hasn't voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1988 — Trump leads, 43 percent to 41 percent.

    Other polls give Clinton an advantage in all three states. Including the new Quinnipiac surveys, POLITICO’s Battleground State polling average — which include the five most-recent polls in each state — give Clinton a 3.2-point lead in Florida, a 2.8-point edge in Ohio and a larger, 4.6-point advantage in Pennsylvania.

    While the Quinnipiac results are eye-popping, they don’t represent any significant movement — except in Florida. In three rounds of polling over the past two months, the race has moved from a four-point Trump lead in Ohio in the first survey, then tied in the next two polls. In Pennsylvania, Clinton led by one point in the first two polls and now trails by two.

    But in Florida, the race has bounced around. Clinton led by one point in the first poll two months ago, but she opened up an eight-point lead in June — a lead that has been erased and more in the new Quinnipiac survey.

    The polls from the Connecticut-based school are likely to be met with some skepticism. When Quinnipiac released their first round of polls in the same three states two months ago, they prompted a round of sniping from Democrats and an F-bomb on Twitter from Nate Silver, the FiveThirtyEight founder who has built a career using poll results to make political predictions.

    But subsequent polls later confirmed the May Quinnipiac surveys: Trump pulled virtually even with Clinton nationally after knocking out his rivals for the GOP nomination.

    It’s possible the results of the FBI investigation into Clinton’s private email server dating back to her service as secretary of state — FBI Director James Comey called Clinton and her staff “extremely careless,” even as he said the government shouldn’t press charges because there wasn’t evidence of criminal intent — are driving Clinton’s poll numbers down leading into the conventions, typically a critical time for campaigns.
     
  2. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #2
    Polls are all over the place since the FBI announced that they won't recommend indictment of Hillary. Trump got a bounce from that. He'll get a bounce from the convention next week. Hillary will get a bounce in 2 weeks from her convention. Polls will start becoming more meaningful around Labor Day when people will really start paying attention.
     
  3. steve knight Suspended

    steve knight

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    then trump will open his mouth and reduce it again.
     
  4. thermodynamic Suspended

    thermodynamic

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    #4
    Seconded.

    The CNN article that shows swing states and lets a reader play with numbers to see who needs to win which states to make it to 270 is interesting... and what happens if neither candidate gets to 270. Which doesn't make it an easy victory from Trump either, but there are plenty of variables in place right now.
     
  5. Huntn macrumors G5

    Huntn

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    #5
    A routine occurance. In the unlikely event Trump wins, might as well get the bulldozers out and shove this wreck of a country into the Atlantic, citizens included and start from scratch (a figurative statement). :p
     
  6. DearthnVader macrumors regular

    DearthnVader

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    #6
    If no candidate gets 270 electoral votes, then the House of Representatives will choose the President and the Senate will choose the Vice-President. I believe from the top three electoral vote getters for each P/VP.

    If Trump wins we'll need a bulldozer to push all the crap away after the Democrats cake themselves.
     
  7. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    Quinnipiac could have it right on Pennsylvania. It might go big for Trump. "Clinging to guns and religion" is not a negative thing in the eyes of some voters in the rural areas. That whole backlash from a prior campaign won't go away until even the scrawny crows are fat in those economically challenged counties. The economy is coming back for the top and the top middle, but at the bottom those guys are still looking at trickle-down drought. Perfect setup for a guy like Trump ringing the strongman bell.

    Yah, well nice if we could dodge entrusting the fate of the executive branch of the next government to the singularly short-sighted attentions of the 114th Congress.
     
  8. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

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    #8
    of course he got a bounce, she should be in jail.
     
  9. Robisan macrumors 6502

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    #9
    Double colon! Lol. Someone needs a colonoscopy: "In Search of: Source of the Belief that Trump Can Win."
     
  10. DearthnVader macrumors regular

    DearthnVader

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    #10
    Even after making that amazingly stupid commit, Obama still won Pennsylvania, twice. So too lose it, Clinton would have to be really weak.
     
  11. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #11
    Late in the day though, isn't it. Skip the primaries and sometimes you can really end up surprised in November.

    FirstOfAllIfYouAreNotSittingDown.jpg
     
  12. nfl46 macrumors 603

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    #12
    Lol! Why are Trump supporters so excited when he's ahead in polls? As a Hillary supporter, we are so used to being ahead of polls that we like "blah" when a new one is released. Keep holding on to faith, Trump supporters...keep holding on...lol!
     
  13. DearthnVader macrumors regular

    DearthnVader

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    #13
    Could have something to do with the fact that Hillary has spent almost four times the money as Trump. Her cash on hand is eight times what Trumps is and of the top 20 Industries contributing, Hillary's #20 on the list has given her almost twice as much as Trumps #1.

    In short Trump hasn't sold his soul to Wall Street for $32,532,065 or Lawyers for $19,696,997, yet he's still in the race.
     
  14. nfl46 macrumors 603

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    Dang. So, he's going to win?
     
  15. DearthnVader macrumors regular

    DearthnVader

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    #15
    He's in the fight.
     
  16. CalWizrd Suspended

    CalWizrd

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    #16
    Yeah. With a pocket knife in a gun fight.
     
  17. DearthnVader macrumors regular

    DearthnVader

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    #17
    Rush a gun, run from a knife.
     
  18. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    He hasn't sold his soul because nobody wants to buy it. With cable news covering every fart from the Orange Judas, she has no choice but to spend to try and counter it.
     
  19. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #19
    Wall Street and he may be in rough agreement that he shouldn't look to sell them his soul since they don't seem very interested in buying.

    True (and that's his tweet style, isn't it!) although he has come a bit late to the solicited donations game. He did do a lot better last month.

    I don't know what to make of the latest McClatchey polls at RCP. Weird.

    clinton trump johnson stein, 40 35 10 5, clinton up 3

    clinton trump, 42 39, clinton up 5

    Guess it's best I leave it to fivethirtyeight and even then look only once in awhile.


     
  20. nfl46 macrumors 603

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    fsdf.gif
     
  21. DearthnVader macrumors regular

    DearthnVader

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    #21

    If what you're looking for in a candidate is someone who will take your vote, then exchange your interests for Wall Street profits, you've found your home in Clinton. For the rest of us Wall Street profits don't mean Main Street jobs anymore.

    National Polls mean nothing, we have to look fat the polls in the Battle Ground states.

    Poll averages.http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
    FL: Trump +0.2
    GA: Trump +4.2
    NC: Clinton +0.7
    VA: Clinton +4.0
    PA: Clinton +1.4
    NH: Clinton +2.7
    ME(CD2):Trump +1
    OH: Clinton +1.7
    IA: Clinton +4.7
    CO: Clinton +7.0
    AZ: Clinton +0.5
    NV: Clinton +4

    Trump only needs to win the Battle Ground states of FL, GA, NC, PA, OH, and AZ. All of which, but GA, are virtual dead heats.
     
  22. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #22
    Latest NBC/Marist polls:

    IA
    Clinton- 42%
    Trump- 36%

    PA.
    Clinton- 45%
    Trump- 36%

    OH
    Clinton- 39%
    Trump- 39%
     
  23. steve knight Suspended

    steve knight

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    #23
    only sharp thing he has is his tongue.
     
  24. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    #24
    Horse-race, click-bait nonsense from Politico. Okay.

    Two points:

    Polls only tell you what people are thinking today, and can really be understood only by looking at trend lines.

    Reviewing battleground state polls are important, but here too, you must look to the averages.

    So, while Quinnipiac University shows Trump and Clinton in a tie in Ohio, for example, all the other polls conducted in Ohio, including the latest poll by Marist College shows Clinton up.

    This also happened in Florida.

    And, Colorado is rapidly shifting in Clinton's favor. In November, a Quinnipiac poll showed Trump up by 9 points, but other later polls show Clinton up. Analysis by FiveThirtyEight shows Clinton's chances of winning the state have increased 30 percent over the past few months.

    And, for Trump the fact that Arizona has become a battleground state is actually problematic. Not only because he could lose a state that has become a Republican bastion, but the campaign may have to put extra effort into maintaining their edge there. (And, demographic shifts might make Arizona shift very fast into Clinton's column.)

    In previous elections candidates could expect to see post-convention bounces, but that might not happen for Trump—who's been picking fights in his own party with guys like Arizona Sen. Flake and has promised a show of celebrities as likely to backfire as help.

    Meanwhile, Clinton's email scandal can recede into the distance, while Sanders' remaining acolytes will start deciding that Clinton, for all her faults, isn't as awful as Trump.

    The current project by FiveThirtyEight shows Clinton has lost ground this week, but still has a 67 percent chance of winning the election.
     
  25. steve knight Suspended

    steve knight

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    #25
    well trump is suing his old campaign aide for 10 million. hoof meet foot.
     

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