Polls are moving back in Bush's direction

Thomas Veil

macrumors 68020
Original poster
Feb 14, 2004
2,435
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OBJECTIVE reality
I give up. I just don't know what to say anymore.

With just two weeks left to go, and in spite of Kerry winning all three debates, the latest CNN/Gallup poll shows Bush widening the lead, 52% to 44%, over Kerry among likely voters.

This follows a Newsweek poll a day or two earlier which reached a similar conclusion.

I don't get it. Does Bush have to physically come to your house, rob you blind and shoot your children not to get elected?

If this doesn't change quickly, you might want to think about following through on that threat to move to Canada.
 

meta-ghost

macrumors regular
Apr 9, 2002
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San Francisco
relax. the truth is nothing of the sort. cnn/gallup are shills for the gop. if you look at the internals of the poll, it's legitimacy falls apart pretty quickly.

this is who they say will be voting on election day.

Republicans = 296 (38%)
Independents = 211 (27%)
Democrats = 278 (35%)

now tell me that we are going to see 3% more registered republicans voting. no way.

1) goopers have never in history had such an advantage in registered numbers.
2) democrats have registered millions.

it's crap pure and simple. big media doesn't want a change in the fcc and they're doing all they can to work with the rethug team. it's about creating an aura of invincibility.

in 2000, the gallup model over-sample rethugs by 3% and under-sample dems by 4%. a 7% mistake.

this election won't be anywhere near as close as most are saying. especially electorally
 

LethalWolfe

macrumors G3
Jan 11, 2002
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Los Angeles
Thomas Veil said:
With just two weeks left to go, and in spite of Kerry winning all three debates, the latest CNN/Gallup poll shows Bush widening the lead, 52% to 44%, over Kerry among likely voters.
Just because people think candidate X presented himself better during a debate doesn't neccisarily<sp?> mean people think candidate X will do a better job in the White House.

The "who won the debate" poll is, IMO, pointless and only good for PR for the winning side.


Lethal
 

Sun Baked

macrumors G5
May 19, 2002
14,874
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LethalWolfe said:
Just because people think candidate X presented himself better during a debate doesn't neccisarily<sp?> mean people think candidate X will do a better job in the White House.

The "who won the debate" poll is, IMO, pointless and only good for PR for the winning side.


Lethal
I guess that's why they seem to have ignored candidate Z, he would have make them both look like jokes.

Ralphie has done more for the average citizen than both candidate X & Y together.

Of course that doesn't make him a leader, but just somebody that's done a lot.

---

Would have been interesting to see him on stage though, nobody could be worse that Ross Perot on stage, besides Bush. ;)
 

LeeTom

macrumors 68000
May 31, 2004
1,527
68
Yeah, these polls are pointless. Kerry will win with 9% of the electoral vote, and all the news agencies will call it a big surprise, yada-yada.
We know who will win.

Lee Tom
 

zimv20

macrumors 601
Jul 18, 2002
4,388
7
toronto
at this late date, i think these "swings" we're seeing are more variances due to who's polled and what questions are asked than true opinion movement.

fwiw, this zogby poll has the margin at 2.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic challenger John Kerry (news - web sites) cut President Bush (news - web sites)'s lead to 2 points with just over two weeks to go before the Nov. 2 election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released Sunday.

Bush led Kerry by 46 percent to 44 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll of the closely contested race for the White House. The president led the Massachusetts senator by 48 percent to 44 percent the previous day.

(more)
 

meta-ghost

macrumors regular
Apr 9, 2002
230
0
San Francisco
LethalWolfe said:
Just because people think candidate X presented himself better during a debate doesn't neccisarily<sp?> mean people think candidate X will do a better job in the White House.

The "who won the debate" poll is, IMO, pointless and only good for PR for the winning side.
4 years of incompetence AND looking like an idiot who doesn't know the issues can usually be overcome when:
1) you own the media
2) you own congress
3) you own scotus

but not this year.
 

meta-ghost

macrumors regular
Apr 9, 2002
230
0
San Francisco
zimv20 said:
at this late date, i think these "swings" we're seeing are more variances due to who's polled and what questions are asked than true opinion movement.

fwiw, this zogby poll has the margin at 2.
zogby is one of the better pollsters. check this approach out:

The very creative John Zogby, in a print-only article in this week's New Yorker reveals why he was so sure the 2000 election would be incredibly close --- by polling America's true reality, the imaginary land of Oz. And... *this same polling technique currently forecasts a 10% Kerry landslide for 2004! Here is what Zogby told Larissa MacFarquhar, the author of the article:

"I asked one question the Saturday before the election in 2000. I called my call center in Utica and said, 'Put this in the poll:"You live in the land of Oz, and the candidates are the Tin Man, who's all brains and no heart, and the Scarecrow, who's all heart and no brains. Who would you vote for?"' The next day, I called Utica and said, 'Whaddaya got?' They said, 'Well we've got Gore---, 'I said, 'I don't care about Gore. What's Oz? 'It was 46.2 for the Tin Man and 46.2 for the Scarecrow. It was right there that I knew I wasn't going to know what was going to happen. But I asked this question again two weeks ago and the Tin Man led by 10 points.

Apparently Zogby has been polling Oz on this race ever since, and as recently as April of 2004 the Tin Man and the Scarecrow were running dead even. But now it's a blow-out! (actually Zogby's poll is two weeks old, which suggests that in Oz the debates took place during September...).
 

LeeTom

macrumors 68000
May 31, 2004
1,527
68
That's fascinating about the Zogby Oz thing... and, I might point out, is in line with my prediction! :)

Lee Tom
 

Thomas Veil

macrumors 68020
Original poster
Feb 14, 2004
2,435
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OBJECTIVE reality
Well, I feel a little better about things.

But it also seems to me at, as election day nears, the few remaining undecided voters usually seem to gravitate towards the status quo rather than the challenger. I hope I'm wrong.
 

IJ Reilly

macrumors P6
Jul 16, 2002
17,915
1,466
Palookaville
According to what I've been reading, an incumbent president's most important poll number is being at 50% or better; anything less is an advantage for a challenger. This supposedly is a more accurate predictor of victory than who is ahead at any given point. Since the advent of modern polling, very few incumbents have won when they polled under 50% -- which is where George W. is at today. Also, according to the pollsters, very few incumbents have done better in the election than their poll numbers predicted. George Bush the Elder is one of the few, but by less than one percent. All of the others have underperformed their poll numbers.
 

yg17

macrumors G5
Aug 1, 2004
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St. Louis, MO
After seeing the front page of USA Today where it said dubya was ahead by 8 points, some of the facts made in this thread help re-assure the crook only has 15 more days left :)
 

zimv20

macrumors 601
Jul 18, 2002
4,388
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toronto
yg17 said:
the crook only has 15 more days left :)
well, there is the lame duck period.

any guesses on what bush'll do during that time, should kerry win? i.e. would bush do something rash to intentionally **** the kerry presidency?
 

meta-ghost

macrumors regular
Apr 9, 2002
230
0
San Francisco
zimv20 said:
well, there is the lame duck period.

any guesses on what bush'll do during that time, should kerry win? i.e. would bush do something rash to intentionally **** the kerry presidency?
there isn't much he can do now, his hands are tied. he can't invade iran/syria because the old guard conservative power structure realizes iraq has been a disaster in every respect. nor would he have support from an international community in any way.

domestically, thank the lord we have the filibuster.
 

yg17

macrumors G5
Aug 1, 2004
14,888
2,480
St. Louis, MO
zimv20 said:
well, there is the lame duck period.

any guesses on what bush'll do during that time, should kerry win? i.e. would bush do something rash to intentionally **** the kerry presidency?
d'oh! forgot about that

thats what worries me the most...all this time he's had to be careful with his decisions because he's up for re-election. But during the lame duck period or if god forbid shrub gets re-elected, he can do just about whatever the hell he wants becuase he doesnt have to worry about re-election
 

wwworry

macrumors regular
Mar 23, 2002
235
0
I was out canvasing the other day and I noticed that a lot of people who were "infrequent voters" were going to be sure to vote in this election. It's something that most of my lazy friends and I were all out canvasing and most of us poor slobs had given money to the dems for this election whereas before we had never even considered it. I know there are a lot of people out there who are not considered "likely" voters who will be voting this time around.

I don't know if it will make a difference but at least we tried. The polls don't matter. We matter.
 

Blue Velvet

Moderator emeritus
Jul 4, 2004
21,652
123
Perhaps this may make some Republican voters complacent and not bother voting... after all, if it's in the bag...
 

Dont Hurt Me

macrumors 603
Dec 21, 2002
6,056
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Yahooville S.C.
Forget those polls, i have not had anyone call me or ask me how iam going to vote and if i recall i saw hundreds of thousands of people demonstrating against Bush and that was everywhere. Bush has pissed off many folks for a plethera of reasons...............i expect a large turnout and a large turnout doesnt bode well for Bush. Whats the weather forcast 2 weeks from now? ;)
 

meta-ghost

macrumors regular
Apr 9, 2002
230
0
San Francisco
Dont Hurt Me said:
Forget those polls, i have not had anyone call me or ask me how iam going to vote and if i recall i saw hundreds of thousands of people demonstrating against Bush and that was everywhere. Bush has pissed off many folks for a plethera of reasons...............i expect a large turnout and a large turnout doesnt bode well for Bush. Whats the weather forcast 2 weeks from now? ;)
democrats will swim thru shark infested waters to vote this year.
 

IJ Reilly

macrumors P6
Jul 16, 2002
17,915
1,466
Palookaville
Dont Hurt Me said:
Whats the weather forcast 2 weeks from now? ;)
Weather junky to the rescue. My patented Approx-u-Weather forecast for November 2 for major cities across the country:

Boston: partly cloudy, breezy, 35/40
Cleveland: overcast, 35/45, chance of rain
Chicago: overcast, breezy, 42/45, chance of rain
Dallas: partly cloudy, 60/65
Denver: overcast, 20/30, light snow
Des Moines: cloudy, 45/48, rain
Detroit: partly cloudy, 35/40
Los Angeles: clear, 40/55
New York City: overcast, 35/40
Miami: partly cloudy, breezy, 75/78
Phoenix: clear, 45/60
Pittsburgh: overcast, 30/45, chance of light rain
Seattle: overcast, 38/45, rain
St. Louis: overcast, 45/52, chance of light rain
Washington DC: partly cloudy, 32/38​

No sharks in the models yet, but I'll keep an eye out.
 

Dont Hurt Me

macrumors 603
Dec 21, 2002
6,056
6
Yahooville S.C.
Could be a Republican day with all those clouds.....I find it interesting that Putin Dictator ..i mean President of russia is backing Bush. I wonder how many Americans will vote Bush because a Russian dictator darn it i did it again i mean president of russia tells us to.