Post-Debate - Obama thunders past 50% in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Cleverboy, Oct 1, 2008.

  1. Cleverboy macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    #1
    http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jVJLH6pLyVW-LX9fBoS2fed6EnFAD93HLA9O0
    Um... OUCH.
    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml
    http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081001/NEWS0107/81001010/1075

    ~ CB
     
  2. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #2
    FiveThiryEight.com has Obama way ahead in the EC. I'm worried he may be peaking too early.

    [​IMG]
     
  3. Anuba macrumors 68040

    Anuba

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    #3
    Right, but is that post-debate or post economic meltdown? IMHO this is all about the economy and the bailout vote. McCain has been made the fall guy for that. The problem is, McCain and Obama will join forces in the Senate today and revive the failed bailout bill. Once that happens, there's gonna be a lot of discontent. It will probably tip the balance a little in favor of McCain, because now they will both look equally bad, whileas before, Obama was relatively unscathed. It will also affect voter turnout negatively, which will hurt Obama more than McCain I think.
    Sadly he peaked much earlier than this. Obamania peaked during the primaries, there was so much hype and energy spent in order to get him ahead of Hillary that the outcome became a bit of an anticlimax. The charm of novelty had worn off. The reasons he's well ahead of McCain now are 1) the economy, 2) Sarah Palin. Since Obama has no control over those two factors, he will need quite a bit of luck in order to stay on top all the way.
     
  4. yoppie macrumors 6502a

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    #4
    If the polls keep favoring Obama, McCain will have to suspend his campaign again. :p
     
  5. Cleverboy thread starter macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    #5
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/30/mccain-may-suspend-campai_n_130553.html
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsKfMuENxhY

    ~ CB
     
  6. JG271 macrumors 6502a

    JG271

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    #6
    Anuba - I think you may be right about it being based on the economy. The debate had no definitive winner, and people may be thinking that a change is needed economy wise, and perhaps seeing McCain as a close friend of the current administration won't do him any favours.

    Whilst the election could still go either way, all the polls i have seen show Obama at at least +5%, some even up 8%. With the VP debate tomorrow, i think we'll see more people make concrete decisions on who they are going to vote for.
     
  7. Cleverboy thread starter macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    #7
    Meh, the economy is part of it, and the McCain shinanigans and Palin fallout are a part, but Obama's definitely come out in support of the "Rescue" bill. He just didn't look erratic and suspend his campaign over it. He's made his case to the public, but the media is really over-shadowing any message being sent by the politicians at this point. Turning public sentiment when the initial action was badly sold (due to its "out of no where" nature), is extremely rough, especially in the house, where many representatives are up for re-election. They're trying to pull "retiring" Reps over to support now... its really harsh, and its highly political. No one's "winning" in this one and it shows.

    ~ CB
     
  8. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

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    #8
    I think we're going to see an increasingly desperate McCain campaign over the next few weeks. If you think they've been ugly to this point, I'm afraid we ain't seen nothin' yet...
     
  9. Anuba macrumors 68040

    Anuba

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    #9
    Yeah, the McCain ad about Obama's supposed "strong fundamentals" statement really took the cake, especially in the light of McCain's own statements (he said those words verbatim, whereas Obama's had to be taken out of context and reassembled).

    The next logical step is Obama montages where the McCain team splices together parts of sentences and come up with stuff like "I - love - terrorists - and - kill - babies", and a sarcastic voiceover comes in and says "Do you *really* want a muslim extremist who eats infants to be your next president?"
     
  10. it5five macrumors 65816

    it5five

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    #10
    This is great news. Also worth noting, I think, is that Obama is leading in Virginia too.
     
  11. donga macrumors 6502a

    donga

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    #11
    election day seems so far away from now. there are tons of things that can and will happen between now and then.

    i don't think the polls are accurate indicators. there's a recent article saying the battleground state voters are extremely volatile
     
  12. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

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    #12
    Sigh... The sad part is that this isn't going to be the last time I have to repeat this before election day.

    Polls are not predictors of future behavior. They are snapshots of the population at a point in time. They are accurate indicators of where people are today, not where they will be on Nov. 4th. A single poll is rather meaningless in this regard, as it doesn't tell you much beyond what people are thinking on the day you polled them; which is why you must watch the trendlines of polls that ask the same question over time. Trendlines can and do establish the direction of movement in thought among those polled.

    For instance, you could have a poll that shows two candidates tied. But knowing that Candidate A was 20 points ahead a week prior puts a whole new spin on the poll.

    And of course you have to watch out for poll outliers and for disreputable pollsters.
     
  13. CalBoy macrumors 604

    CalBoy

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    #13
    Of course some states allow voting to begin as of now (in fact, Ohio is one such state), which means that some voters may be casting ballots that they may eventually regret.
    Polls, however, do track changes very well. Since the GOP convention ended, McCain's lead has slowly and continuously dwindled to the point where he is now consistently behind in critical states like Colorado, and where he has lost a once solid lead in states like Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. If only one of these states goes for Obama, Obama will win the election. And if current trends continue, it seems like Obama has a good shot at taking all three, if not at least two.
     
  14. OutThere macrumors 603

    OutThere

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    #14
    I've been very pleased with what I've seen over the past 36 hours or so. http://electoral-vote.com/

    For the poll haters: as has been stated before, the trends are more important than the individual polls themselves. When they start having rapid fire polls moving up to the election (pretty much now), the trend can give us a good picture of what will happen....a candidate on an upswing right before an election, for example, could very well go on to win the election a day or two later, surprising people who only looked at one poll but not those who'd watched the whole week beforehand.

    The polls now can give us a good picture of how the voters react to events...the conventions and debates, for example.
     
  15. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #15
    I do recognize that a poll is a mere snapshot.

    However, only a few weeks ago Obama was a little behind or tied in Ohio. He was behind in Florida. Other swing states are swinging Obama's way. This is a rather stunning, if not completely unexpected, turnabout.

    And the really exciting news is that there are no factors in sight which work to McCain's advantage. Palin, the economy and McCain's own behavior have become boat anchors that are weighing him down.

    Barring some completely unexpected reversal -- an Obama scandal, real or imagined, or a terrorist attack upon the United States -- Obama is going to be president.

    Addendum: Obama leading in Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada and Virginia as well.
     
  16. yojitani macrumors 68000

    yojitani

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    #16
    As an anecdote to this, I got a call from the Obama campaign asking if I had made up my mind who I would vote for (I was leaning Green or Socialist) and told them Obama. I got into a discussion with the woman who called about the campaign and explained that I changed to Obama for the simple reason that Iowa is a swing state (it went red last time) and there is no way that I could tolerate a nutter like Sarah Palin so close to power. She said, I quote, "we've been hearing a lot of that recently."
     

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