Post Your Election 2012 Picks! (Electoral Map)

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Prof., Oct 12, 2012.

  1. Prof. macrumors 601

    Prof.

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    #1
    Did a quick search, and it appears no one has done this, yet. Here are my two possible outcomes.

    Note: CNN allows you to create your own map.
     

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  2. myrtlebee, Oct 12, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2012

    myrtlebee macrumors 68020

    myrtlebee

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    #2
    Another 2000

    I had a hard time allocating Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and Ohio, so I wouldn't be surprised seeing any of those flip from what I have in my map - but I see this as the most realistic situation.
    I actually think Nevada would be the most plausible "flipper" out of these four - even over Iowa.
    The hispanic population and influx of residents from all over the country gives Obama an edge with diversity that's not as prominent in Iowa.

    Ohio - he has that locked down for one reason- the auto industry.
    Remove northern Ohio and you'd have another Kentucky for Romney.
    I don't see how anyone could give Romney New Hampshire.
    I think New England's had enough of him for this century.

    Living close to Virginia and having spent a good chunk of my life there, I really do not see how Obama would win this time.
    Sweeping NOVA isn't going to cut it.
    I live in Maryland, one of the bluest of the blue states as far as election outcomes, and all I see are Romney signs everywhere - the Baltimore suburbs, Eastern Shore, Western Maryland - everywhere except the DC suburbs - not to mention bumper stickers, Facebook posts, and general conversation - all anti-Obama - so, this is going to be one of the reddest Presidential elections in a long time (although Obama will still win by double digits).
    I saw more Obama signs in Pennsylvania than anywhere else the past few months - that, in combination with electoral history, leads me to believe that it's pretty much set in stone Obama.

    Forget North Carolina for Obama - he has no hope this time around.
    Florida - He'll be a couple of points away from Romney at the most, but still lose it.

    Note the exact tie in electoral votes in my projection.
    It wasn't planned - but it reinforces my opinion that we are looking at another 2000.
     

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  3. leenak macrumors 68020

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    #3
    I live in MD as well and I only see Romney signs where I normally see republican signs. I know I keep getting calls for Romney and wish they'd stop :) It seems they are trying to do some heavy campaigning here. We are one of the few states (only state?) that didn't lose our governor to a tea partyer last election. I imagine we'll be blue this election.

    I agree that VA is as red as red can be.
     
  4. myrtlebee macrumors 68020

    myrtlebee

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    #4
    That's strange about the Romney calls. I keep getting Obama calls. They asked me to volunteer today, which I found strange since haven't been a Democrat for years (I'm independent). I do get pollsters calling every other night for question 7 and the other ballot measures- which I don't mind because I love taking polls, so the more the merrier. I'm sick of question 7, but I'm glad it's getting all of the attention and drowning out opposition for the gay marriage measure. I spend most of my time in the Eastern Baltimore suburbs, Western MD and the Eastern Shore and have yet to see an Obama sign. I have seen a few Cardin signs, though - but usually not by people's homes. Virginia is only "red as can be" outside NOVA - but combine that with a purple NOVA this go-around and he's cooked. As far as MD, it's hard for me to see any counties besides PG, MoCo, and Howard (along with Baltimore City) going for Obama (of course, that's enough of the population centers for a strong win). Maybe he'll get Baltimore County but after decades of living here and having a good idea of the area's pulse, Obama is likely going to lose the Northern and Eastern sections of the county. I guess Towson, Catonsville and Reisterstown could save it for him, though. Kent and Charles County are out of the question this time for O.
     
  5. leenak macrumors 68020

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    #5
    I'm in MoCo so maybe why I don't see overwhelming Romney signs but I see some in the same areas I saw McCain signs prior. I was going through parts of VA last weekend and saw a ton of Romney signs though but that is typical. (NoVA but almost not). Question 7 is crazy because I'm like what is the big deal? I'm glad same sex marriage seems to be getting ignored, maybe it'll slide in under the radar.
     
  6. myrtlebee macrumors 68020

    myrtlebee

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    #6
    Oh... that would be why. Haha. MoCo is like another world implanted in the state of MD. It is nothing like the rest of the state. Especially the Lower Eastern Shore and Western Maryland with their Stars & Bars and Gadsden flags, respectively. I'm surprised there are any Romney signs there (MoCo) at all to be honest. I drove through your county for maybe the 3rd time in my life this summer and saw some pretty extreme anti-Bush bumper stickers.

    Amen. I don't care about 7 so long as they build the casinos in urban areas and not do what they did in Perryville- you know, plop a casino in the middle of a field with nothing else around and erect mile-high signs in a rural small town to just piss people off. Keep the casinos in PG county and Baltimore City and Ocean City and what kind of games and how many shouldn't be an issue. Who gives a **** if there are table games? I hope marriage does slide in under the radar. The only ad I've seen so far is pro-gay marriage TV ad with a black baptist minister. Surprised me a bit that there hasn't been more opposition. But, then again, maybe I should keep my mouth shut before I speak too soon.
     
  7. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #7
    Okay, here's my map as of this moment. I took 2008's map and played with it a little.

    I could totally be wrong on Colorado and Florida. I went cautious on Florida and went red with it as maybe the medicare info isn't registering with voters there. I am not sure and haven't got a sense of it so I erred on the side of caution. The reason I gave Colorado to Romney, is because of Obama's poor debate showing here which I think could impact some voters in this state more then others since that was where the debate was held.

    I believe that IN will flip to red, and VA will stay blue. I could be wrong about NV but I gave it to Romney anyway. NC I flipped to Romney red also.

    So despite the fact that I flipped 5 states to red, Obama still wins.
     

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  8. myrtlebee macrumors 68020

    myrtlebee

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    #8
    Why do you think this? Have you spent time in Virginia within the past few months?
     
  9. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #9
    if so, then like Gore, perhaps Romney will wake up the next day and regret not having won his home state
     
  10. myrtlebee macrumors 68020

    myrtlebee

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    #10
    Which home state? Hasn't he claimed every state in which he has a home as his home state? It's awfully hard to lose 36 states.
     
  11. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #11
    Dude, don't even go there!

    269-269? You know what could happen?

    Either an elector will switch his vote (meaning one guy will end up selecting the president)...

    or the House votes on the president, and the Senate on the VP -- and we end up with a Romney-Biden administration.
     
  12. myrtlebee macrumors 68020

    myrtlebee

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    #12
    Scary. There are actually quite a few plausible scenarios leading to a 269 split if you play with the map.
     
  13. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #13
    yes, but he was only governor in one of them :p
     
  14. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #14
    Because of the women vote. Women don't like to be presented with legislature like this from a Republican Governor who pushed this law big time:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/29/us-abortion-virginia-idUSTRE81S0DR20120229

    The women of VA will remember this come election day. Paul Ryan's comments at the debate the other night didn't help matters either.
     
  15. myrtlebee macrumors 68020

    myrtlebee

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    #15
    I've lived in Virginia and I visit often, since it is about a half hour away. Barack Obama is not going to win Virginia this year. It's a mistake to think McDonnell's ultrasound bill agitating the suburban-transplant women of NOVA is going to stop the rest of Ol' Virginny from voting red with their Obama hatred. I think people are underestimating the passion to vote Obama out of office in this state. Once you're past Fredericksburg and clear of NOVA, I'd doubt there will be more than a handful of counties going for Obama. What's more, there are still a ton of conservatives in NOVA, so it's absolutely still a "purple" region. Purple + red does not equal a blue win. Remember, NOVA's where most Republicans who work in DC choose to live - it's a choice pretty much between the MD and VA suburbs. Hell even Gingrich and Fred Thompson live there. It isn't like Maryland's capital region, which is militantly blue. I would be amazed if Obama won Virginia again this year- in which case you could have your big chance to tell me how much I don't know anything- which I'm sure would bring you great joy ; )
     
  16. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #16
    Great joy? No. Okay..maybe a little. lol But I don't know why you are discounting the women vote so much. You factor in all the Republicans who live in the metro DC area, but didn't they live there when Obama got elected too? So in order for Virginia to flip back to red, would require that either Democrats are now voting Republican, Democrats are staying home (while Republicans are not), or there are a whole lot of independents moving in the other direction. And again, this totally dismisses the women vote who DO have a very big impact on this race. Then there is also Virgil Goode, who will be syphoning some votes from Romney. Even if only a little, it still could have an impact on a close race. Between all of these factors I do not see how you can confidently say that Virginia will go Romney's way. I just don't see it.
     
  17. myrtlebee macrumors 68020

    myrtlebee

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    #17
    I see what you're saying, and it's definitely one way to look at it. Except, remember in 08 Obama won more throughout the state of Virginia, and this time, through my own ground observations, I don't see it as being the case. So, you have an almost solid-red rest-of-VA and not a solidly blue NOVA like in 08 (it will be more red in NOVA)- even if we say, okay, NOVA will be solidly blue this time that still leaves the rest of Virginia red.

    Leaving my usual sarcasm aside, I really mean this - I don't think you see it because you literally don't see it. I'm basing my opinion off of my time in Virginia. I feel the same about Nevada and Iowa - if someone who lives there got the feeling that the state was swinging blue based on first-hand observation, I'd seriously take that into consideration over my own guesses since I've never been to either state.
     
  18. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #18
    Okay...so some questions for you then.

    Do you think that women's issues and the efforts by the Republican Governor of Virginia have no bearing on the race in this state?

    Do you think that 3rd party candidates will not affect Romney at all in VA?

    If you see the state flipping red, is it because Democrats are now voting Republican? Is it because of just Independents? What? More yard signs around town? What gives you this feeling specifically? Is it based on any polling data?

    I know, it's a lot of questions. Sorry. But I've always been fascinated by Virginia. It is one of my favorite states.
     
  19. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    #19
    I'll pass.

    Rather than try to predict the future, I'll just wait and see how it resolves itself.
     
  20. Prof. thread starter macrumors 601

    Prof.

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    #20
    Really? :rolleyes:
     
  21. myrtlebee macrumors 68020

    myrtlebee

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    #21
    Yes, to a large extent- as mentioned before, I don't see the issue gaining much traction outside NOVA. In other words, it might be something thought about in the rest of the state, but definitely not something that will be the deciding factor in their votes- especially considering the strong anti-Obama sentiment.

    Don't know - I haven't seen any third party presidential yard signs - but it's possible. Would have expected to hear some more day-to-day chat about Goode if this were the case. It hasn't really been something I've thought about much to be honest.

    No, not really. I wouldn't consider it flipping red at all as it is still a red state. Going for Obama in '08 was a fluke flip - just like North Carolina. Before 2008, VA never voted for a Democrat for President since 1964. I just don't see any Republicans, or many independents, crossing over like some did for Obama in 08. I guess there are still some very elderly more-socially-conservative Southern Democrats around who never switched parties in the 60s/70s who will switch over to Romney. Some will argue that the demographics are changing in VA and NC due to transplants in NOVA and the Triangle, respectively. That's true- but not enough to make either state reliably blue for at least another decade. As far as what gives me the feeling - simply being there. I know this is not scientific and what have you, but even then just look at recent polling- for the past few weeks Obama has been losing support in polling in VA and Romney has moved ahead.

    No, it's fine. I enjoy making and hearing projections- it's half the fun in politics. & Me too. It's a beautiful state (then again- almost all of them are, aren't they).

    Oh, come on, it's all in good fun- give it a shot
     
  22. iPhil macrumors 68040

    iPhil

    #22
    I guess - I'll pull my '08 post of election pick Just omit Mcain for Mitt then'll be damn near close ... :rolleyes:


    Obama V McCain
     
  23. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    #23
    Yes. Really.

    There's no value (in my opinion) with trying to guess the results of the election. Most of us would use 90% of what someone else has already told us and add our 5-10% pulled-out-of-our-arse pure speculation.

    And then we'll imagine ourselves super-heros if we guess right ... or conveniently forget all about it if we guess wrong. Very human-naturish ... but ultimately—to borrow a favorite phrase of our conservative friends—a circle jerk.

    But do carry on. Don't let me spoil the ... fun.
     
  24. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #24
    Okay...we shall see. I cannot wait to see the demographic data for Virginia's election results. It should be interesting.

    CNN did a story on him the other night. Showed him campaigning at a fair in Virginia. And there was some interviews with 3rd party candidates the other night as well. So there is some buzz. Not enough to win an election of course. But could be enough to have an effect on a close race. For instance what if Romney were to win by a few thousand votes but those 3rd party candidates snagged 3000? That could change the outcome. It's telling because earlier in the year, Republicans tried to keep Goode off the ballot. So they must be worried about this too.
     
  25. myrtlebee macrumors 68020

    myrtlebee

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    #25

    Well, one can only hope. Maybe I should start campaigning for Goode in Virginia.
     

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