Prediction time (with maps)

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by KingYaba, Jun 8, 2008.

  1. KingYaba macrumors 68040

    KingYaba

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    #1
    It's June and we have a few months. I thought it would be fun to look back in November and see if any of us are right. ABC has a cool interactive map that allows you to see the past four presidential elections and then predict the 2008 election by clicking on states.Fill in those blue and red states and share.

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/
     

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  2. miloblithe macrumors 68020

    miloblithe

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    #2
    I'll take Obama 363, McCain 175.

    Obama will win: HI, CA, OR, WA, CO, NM, MN, IA, MO, WI, IL, IN, MI, OH, PA, NY, VT, NH, ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, VA, SC, and FL.

    McCain: AK, NV, AZ, UT, ID, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, TN, KY, WV, and NC.

    McCain has a shot at FL, SC, VA, and IN, which is not enough for him to win anyway.

    Obama's got a shot at TX, NC, LA, MS, ND, MT, and NV.

    Should be a blow out of Bill Clinton proportions.
     
  3. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #3
    I sure do hope you're right.

    I'm not going to predict anything for 2 reasons:
    1. I don't know enough about every state's demographics to make even a half-assed guess
    2. I'll fudge the numbers any way I can to give Obama a landslide :D
     
  4. KingYaba thread starter macrumors 68040

    KingYaba

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    #4
    Too much text. I want to see some colors. ;) Here is what yours looks like.
     

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  5. solvs macrumors 603

    solvs

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    #5
    I suspect I will either be disappointed once more, or shockingly surprised, nothing in the middle.

    That is to say, I think it'll be a landslide either way.
     
  6. it5five macrumors 65816

    it5five

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    #6
    I won't be doing this (yet) for the same reason as yg17, but I would like to add that McCain isn't even doing as well in his home state as expected. Recent polls showed him with only an 11 point lead against Obama, and this was before Hillary had dropped, so it may be even closer now. Those that did the polling and even those in McCains campaign expected a much larger lead. I don't know if Obama will be able to actually close the gap here in Arizona, but I think it shows how awful McCain will be doing this November if he can't even do as well in his own state as expected.

    I'd also expect to see this lead further dwindle if Obama picks our governor, Janet Napolitano, as his running mate (pretty unlikely, but I've heard her name here and there in regards to the VP spot, and she had endorsed Obama pretty early on in the race).
     
  7. swiftaw macrumors 603

    swiftaw

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    #7
    If you add up the electoral college votes for all the states that have voted the same way for the past 4 elections you get Obama 248 McCain 135. Thus, Obama needs only to find 22 electoral college votes from the 'swing states'.

    Three (potentially) obvious ones are:
    New Hampshire (voted Democrat except for 2000): 4
    Iowa (voted Democrat except for 2004): 7
    New Mexico (voted Democrat except for 2004): 5

    That's another 16 electoral college votes, meaning he needs to find 6 more from the following states:

    Nevada (democrat 1992,1996; republican 2000,2004): 5
    Arizona (democrat 1996; republican 1992, 2000,2004): 10
    Montana (democrat 1992; republican 1996, 2000,2004): 3
    Colorado (democrat 1992; republican 1996, 2000,2004): 9
    Missouri (democrat 1992,1996; republican 2000,2004): 11
    Arkansas (democrat 1992,1996; republican 2000,2004): 6
    Louisiana (democrat 1992,1996; republican 2000,2004): 9
    Ohio (democrat 1992,1996; republican 2000,2004): 20
    Kentucky (democrat 1992,1996; republican 2000,2004): 8
    Tennessee (democrat 1992,1996; republican 2000,2004): 11
    Georgia (democrat 1992; republican 1996, 2000,2004): 15
    Florida (democrat 1996; republican 1992, 2000,2004): 27
     
  8. Don't panic macrumors 603

    Don't panic

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    #8

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  9. Chundles macrumors G4

    Chundles

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    #9
    I tried a few times to make a picture where Florida looked a bit rude but couldn't figure it out.

    So a smiley face was the best I could come up with.
     

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  10. pooky macrumors 6502

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    #10
    Utah? Really? Seems unlikely. Isn't illegal there to vote for a democrat?
     
  11. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #11
    Only illegal if you get caught :D

    I think a lot of Utahians are angry at McCain and other repubs for the attacks on Romney, and will either vote for Obama, or won't vote for all. Unless Romney is his running mate, then Utah is his. Mormons :rolleyes:
     
  12. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #12
    Here's what the map looks like with any state that went 3 or more of the previous four elections to the same party. The grey split 2 and 2.

    If the 1 out of four is a fluke for those years then we're looking at a pretty solid win for Obama. Since he already wins and will most likely pick up 1 or more of the split states as well.

    If I guess at the rest of the states, the second map is kind of how I see it falling out.

    Edit:
    Sorry, had NC in Obama's camp doesn't fit by my criteria.

    first map is my full take, second map is the 75% or more of previous elections as the indicator.
     

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  13. Don't panic macrumors 603

    Don't panic

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    #13
    haha you're probably right. I actually meant Nevada, but now that i made the bold prediction i'm sticking to it :p
    in any way, Obama is only 40+ points behind in Utah, so it can only get better :).
     
  14. KingYaba thread starter macrumors 68040

    KingYaba

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    #14
    You think Texas will vote for Obama? :confused: The poll you posted says McCain will take the state.
     
  15. stevento macrumors 6502

    stevento

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    #15
    if you go to CNNPolitics.com then you'll see the poll of polls only has Obama up by 4 points. as we all know, a 4 point lead is not a lead so we need to stop acting like Obama has already won the presidency. The democratic party loves him but that doesnt mean the entire country will embrace him that way. Especially not lunch bucket workers and hispanics, don't think he already has those wrapped up.


    NH, OH and PA, FL, MI are states Obama needs to worry about
    TX, NV, AL FL and MI are states McCain needs to worry about.
    especially Michigan because John McCain is running ads here and I haven't seen any Obama ads here. our economy is in awful shape, in addition to the nations economic situation, and we've got a democratic governor, so Obama needs to watch out
     
  16. themadchemist macrumors 68030

    themadchemist

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    #16
    For someone who agreed to support the Democratic candidate, you sure are grumbling a lot.
     
  17. KingYaba thread starter macrumors 68040

    KingYaba

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    #17
    I must be missing something. :confused:
     
  18. stevento macrumors 6502

    stevento

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    #18
    yes Texas. in 2000 Al Gore thought OH would go his way for sure. the reason TX was locked in 00 and 04 is because that's Bush's home

    i'm not joining this histeria bandwagon that thinks Obama is heaven sent. I want a democratic president in 2008. that means he has to win in november, and thats not going to come easy

    edit: i just read an article saying McCain is spending $500,000 /week on ads here and i haven't seen any ads from Obama
     
  19. Mike Teezie macrumors 68020

    Mike Teezie

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    #19
    A few of you have Louisiana going for Barack.

    I hate to tell you, but that will never happen.
     
  20. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #20
    Really? After Katrina it still has no chance of going Dem? They went Dem in '92 and '96 so it's not historically unprecedented. Admittedly the polls aren't in his favor at the moment but I think a lot of states that were previously unreachable might be up for grabs this fall after the two of them meet face to face on TV.
     
  21. themadchemist macrumors 68030

    themadchemist

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    #21
    The problem is a large percentage of the most-affected populations post-Katrina has been flung far and wide...Those folks aren't in New Orleans anymore and if they are, they are being rapidly gentrified out. So I'm not sure, it's possible, but unlikely.
     
  22. Mike Teezie macrumors 68020

    Mike Teezie

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    #22
    You know those 28 percenters you hear about? They all live here.

    I say all this slightly tongue in cheek, but it would really be one of the shocks of my life if Obama carried this state.

    People say things like, "can you believe a n****r is running for president?"

    In public.

    :(:mad:
     
  23. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #23
    I live in Texas and we have our fair share of the 28%, and I think my father-in-law has probably said that exact quote (hey I married his daughter, not him). While I would be surprised if TX went Dem I won't call it impossible, yet.

    I actually had a dream about the election the other night and there were only about 5-10 states that went to McCain, and TX wasn't one of them... maybe, for once, my visions will come true.
     
  24. CalBoy macrumors 604

    CalBoy

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    #24
    I think it's a bit premature to try to predict the electoral map at this stage of the game.

    However, I think that we will see the four big determiners of the election (Obama's message of hope, McCain's message of "stay the course," McCain's age, and the economy) decided long before November.

    If McCain slips up ever so slightly because of his age (falls asleep while someone is giving a speech for example, or suffers from any situation which exemplifies his age), it will most likely drive the electorate against him. The later it happens in the election season (ie October or after), the more doomed the McCain campaign will be.

    And I think that for the first time, Texas is very much in play. The Texan electorate has been shifting as more minorities fill into the state. The Republicans still control Texas's legislature and governorship, but as the population becomes more diverse, and the economy falters, the electorate will be more willing to take out its rage on the Republican party at the Federal level. McCain will probably win Texas, but it's going to cost him a pretty penny to do so.
     
  25. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #25
    it's way too early of course.....but fun anyway

    this map looks like what I suspect will happen
     

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