Recession Predicted

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by dukebound85, Oct 20, 2008.

  1. dukebound85 macrumors P6

    dukebound85

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    #1
    and at the time it was a minority held view. one more reason why i think Ron Paul was a great choice

    From his economic adviser, Peter Schiff
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfascZSTU4o

    i will say that the other guy looks like a fool at this point

    what are you thoughts?
     
  2. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #2
    Schiff's an optimist? :)

    When I've been reading for months about the job losses, the trillions of dollars written off or printed, the number of big chains closing stores or filing for bankruptcy protection, I sorta figure we're already in a recession. Doesn't matter what the Feds are yapping, trying to prevent panic in an election year.

    The consumer inflation rate follows the money supply (M3, before they got scared and quit telling us) with a small time lag. M3 has been above 10% for years.

    Then, sorta figuring that http://www.shadowstats.com is also optimistic, I'd call it "stagflation". Just like at the end of Carter/start of Reagan--but I think this time around will be worse.

    The Dow has dropped from a P/E average of 24-ish to around 11. Buffet may claim that's a bottom, but in the 1930s the average was around 7, so there's room to "un-grow".

    Since this contraction is world-wide, about the only good thing is that gasoline will not climb for a while--but the world supply is not increasing.

    My guess is that since the Fed and Congress have tried to solve problems created by excess liquidity by creating more liquidity, we're in deep doo-doo for several years. Hard to solve a problem by having the folks who caused it repeat the same experiment, expecting a different result. I'm certainly not "for" McCain, but Obama's ideas parallel those of Congress--which will merely exacerbate the problems.

    I'm just glad that my overhead is low and I don't spend what's coming in while I sleep. I figure to just sit back and ride it out from the sidelines. I pity the poor devils who have lost and who will lose jobs.

    New retirement plan, following the advice in the Onion: Call it the 401k(evorkian).
     
  3. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    #3
    Have you found a good article that talks about how to not break or exacerbate the problems?

    Also, I was wondering where you had disappeared to, I was beginning to think you might have stayed out on the backhoe too long. ;)
     
  4. Iscariot macrumors 68030

    Iscariot

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    #4
    I predicted the recession.

    Write-in "Judas Iscariot".
     
  5. Ugg macrumors 68000

    Ugg

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    #5
    As always, The Onion cuts to the quick of the matter. Too bad it's true...
     
  6. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #6
    Isn't the "other guy" the same one who came up with the infamous "Laffer curve"? 'Nuff said!

    Funny you mention predictions from two years ago, because I just recently downloaded this video where somebody else foresaw this economic mess as well. (Starts about 2:00 into the clip.) Sure, he's not an economist, but that's the point: he saw it coming. And that "economist" Laffer didn't.
     
  7. KingYaba macrumors 68040

    KingYaba

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    #7
    Mark your calendars for Oct. 30th. The BEA will release the stats.
     
  8. Anuba macrumors 68040

    Anuba

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    #8
    Given that the world economy goes in 4-8 year cycles, anyone can predict a recession, this isn't like the Rapture. Whenever there's a bubble, there will be a recession, and the housing bubble was the biggest I've ever seen, so...
     
  9. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #9
    hulugu, I've looked back to Japan's debacle, to our hard landing of 1981-1983 and the Great Depression. Read a bunch of stuff, these last couple of months.

    As near as I can tell, we had the same lead-in to this whoopilah as in the 1920s: Loose money, easy credit. Boom times. The Fed let low interest rates continue too long, just as these recent years.

    Our current big mistake began with the first Fed/Treasury interventions. That parallels Japan, when their meltdown began. And they've had some twenty years of misery, now. I've no clue as to what could be done, now. The horse is out of the barn and long gone. That first set of bail-outs didn't really work. Then, it's already been figured out that the $700 billion's not enough, and more bail-out is coming.

    Congress has the bit in its teeth to "Ease yore pane" in this election year, buying votes with another stimulus package--which is more deficit spending.

    So, no, I have no solution. Too late. We're just stuck with a deep recession that's only just begun during this year, given the job losses resulting from many, many factors. The downturn began last year, with pullbacks in consumer spending due in large part to high gas prices.

    The projected federal deficit for next year is at least a trillion greenies. Could be more, depending on how phony the bookkeeping is.

    And, of course, since we're the King Kong market, our downturn is clobbering other countries' export markets--while they, too, are suffering from high inflation.

    And all this printing of money is just gonna knock our own buying power down. We're short-term looking good, as a safe haven for foreign currencies, but it won't last.

    Hell, I've been harping on all this for several years now.

    Other questions arise: Folks here have talked about R&D into alternative fuels, alternative cars' powerplants, alternative electric generating. Okay, wonderful: Where's the money gonna come from, and from whom, to pay for all that? The worldwide money loss, this last dozen or so months, is over eight trillion dollars. The US Government certainly doesn't have the money to do much, and industry can't get credit. Remember credit?

    Folks who study the nationwide electrical system say we're headed into brownouts; infrequent, initially, but becoming more frequent. We're already behind by some forty or fifty big coal-fired plants' worth of megawatts. One coal-fired plant typically equals 1,000 to 1,500 wind units. And power plant costs have doubled, these last few years. Again, credit doth raise its ugly head.

    Hey, the demographic boffins say we're gonna have another 140 million people in the U.S. by 2050. Won't that be fun? They'll want lights and cars and houses and water and food and...and somebody's in trouble.

    Read about Argentina? They've imploded, so the solution was to nationalize all retirement funds. Our Congress is now considering no more deferring of taxes on 401ks. Won't help anything, but as usual, the taxpayer is screwed.

    Basically, insofar as monetary policy, Keynes was wrong, the Austrians were correct, and we need a majority makeup of Congress of a bunch of Ron Paul-minded folks.

    I've looked in occasionally, but I've no interest in yap-yap threads pro or con either candidate. Trivial stuff. Neither candidate has a clue about monetary policy, although Obama's fundamental philosophy is more harmful than McCain's fuzziness. Just look at who their economic advisers are, for one thing. Even there, Obama loses, with that Raines creature--although not by a whole helluva lot.

    Hope y'all got plenty of wealth for the upcoming Redistribution.

    'Rat
     
  10. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    #10
    Thanks 'Rat, now I'm completely depressed. ;)

    In all seriousness, what have you been reading? Are you chewing on articles or books?
    I'm trying to get a handle on this situation, especially the long-term view, and I'd really like to find some good books on historical precedents, such as Japan's long-term recession and monetary-policies.
    Right now, I'm reading The Great Tax War and a couple of others, but I'd really enjoy some suggestions.
     
  11. 3rdpath macrumors 68000

    3rdpath

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    #11
    look up nouriel roubini'.

    he's a professor/economist who called this whole scenario, play by play, years ago.

    and continues to call it...

    he's predicting we may have to shut financial markets down for a week or so to calm things down when the hedge funds start imploding.
     
  12. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #12
    Yeah, roubini is an influence on the folks I read. I subscribe to Agora Publishing's "Strategic Investor", which gets me the daily emails of Whiskey&Gunpowder and The Daily Reckoning.

    I first started with them some twenty years back. Overall, their batting average on stock picks has run 85% or better, with gains commonly averaging around 20% per year. Some break-even; even the losers are low percentage.

    They give a lot of numbers not regularly seen on pMSNBC or CNBC. No happy noises intended to keep the suckers coming.

    Doug Casey is another whose views have been spot-on.

    These people focus on making money, and analyze politics and world events as to impacts on investments or investment sectors. Socialism is of course anathema, and they basically have little national loyalty. So, they're rather objective in their views.

    Me? I became a pessimist about the long-term economic health of the U.S. back around 1974. I was already aware of Hubbert's Pimple, and the huge jump in energy costs during the 1970s made it obvious that our transition from a producer economy to a consumer economy was a was a decaying road from four-lane to two-lane to dirt.

    Saturday night sprees are inevitably followed by Kris Kristofferson's song about Sunday. So, I partied less and saved more and made myself as independent as I possibly could. I didn't quit having fun, and I didn't scrimp in some ridiculous fashion, but when you have some clues about what's likely to happen, it's easier to prepare.

    And that's why I don't partake of all these threads about the upcoming elections. Waste of time; meaningless. It doesn't matter about Obama's BS about his mentor or his mother. It doesn't matter about Palin's views on anything. I just look at the history of tax policies and monetary policies, since those have the most impact. Next, of course, is the ever-strengthening police-state legislation, but neither candidate will change that, so I don't bother: It's just gonna get worse. When it comes to my money, and your money, Obama loses. McCain loses less, but not a helluva lot less. But, something's better than nothing...

    I had to chuckle: Tamara (Bikes, Books & Boomsticks blog) is re-reading Jeff Cooper's "Gargantuan Gunsite Gossip", in which he refers to Biden as "the lickspittle lapdog of the lunatic left". The book ws published 1987. Some things don't change. :)

    'Rat
     
  13. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #13
    Sorry 'Rat, but you make me giggle. First you say that Obama's tax policy is bad, then you say McCain's is bad too, but just only by a hair. You're also assuming that either one would be able implement their policies, which people on your side of the aisle love to say neither of them will be able to do anyway.

    And sorry- I gotta tell ya- trickle down sure as hell isn't working either. We got big bills 'Rat, and the collection agency has just shown up at our door.
     
  14. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #14
    Reid & Pelosi are in full accord with Obama's ideas about monetary policy; look at what they are now proposing. So, why would his ideas be resisted? Odds are, McCain *might* not get into the "ease yore pain" trap, and *might* not exacerbate the mess. And, whatever ideas he has which are different from those of Congress would be resisted. The longer the time before Congress does anything at all, the better off you are.

    I stay out of the "trickle down" arguments because it appears that everybody who uses the term has his own definition of what it is. So, it's pointless to argue over it.

    Lemme add to your sense of well-being :D about the monetary future:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNewsAndPR/idUSPEK466920081024?sp=true

    'Rat
     
  15. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #15
    I have heard about a coming recession, but have felt that "recession" for the last 8 years. I don't know what the appropriate definition is, but it certainly feels that way now.
     
  16. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #16
    Hey, folks have been calling me a dumb-butted old Depression-era idjit since back almost twenty years ago, when I started grumbling, "This can't go on!" It's gone on longer than I ever expected.

    And this, just today:

    http://www.takimag.com/blogs/article/the_standard_of_living_bubble_and_why_its_about_to_go_pop/

    Karen De Coster is a newbie to the scene, but she has it right...

    Ain't it an old song, "Hey, children, what's that sound? Expectations, going down." Gonna be rough on a lot of psyches.

    'Rat
     
  17. gotzero macrumors 68040

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    #17
    It takes a long time for the official arbitrator to actually call a recession. I think we will find all of 2008 to be in the called zone once the dust settles.
     
  18. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #18
    It doesn't seem to occur to folks to index the GDP for inflation. Nor does it seem to be realized that if you're spending more and getting less and the GDP numbers go up some from the increased spending, you're not necessarily better off with the fewer goods and services.

    'Rat
     
  19. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #19
    Can I assume you're against outsourcing, then?

    Also, even given that the economy MIGHT not be as good under Obama, the risks of a possible Palin presidency are to great to our freedoms in this country. She is absolutely terrifying. As long as my rights are intact, I'll figure out a way to pay the bills if not do better than that.
     
  20. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #20
    I don't see what outsourcing has to do with this, but what difference does my opinion or your opinion make? Folks are going to buy from the least-cost source, so if you can't compete with your own operating cost structure, you lose. Our cost structures with our wage/retirement/medicoverage levels made us non-competitive. Sure, we could have imposed tariffs, but then our bottom 30% of the populace would not have had the store-bought goodies that outsourcing brought them.

    I don't see how Palin could be any worse threat to freedom than what both parties of Congress have been doing to us, these last forty years. War on Drugs? Biden's baby; among other things, he led the charge for us to have a Drug Czar. So, hey, "Arrest that money!" War on Terror, Patriot Act, Son of Patriot Act, TSA: All bi-partisan, and no freedom has been enhanced via this Democratic control of Congress. Nor will it be; governments never yield power back to the citizenry. That's not what they are in business to do. And generally, those who speak in support of the Second Amendment aren't activists in the freedom-reduction bidness. The gun-control freaks are--Biden again being in the lead of that charge. :D

    But what do I know? I've only been watching this dreck since the Great Society began...

    'Rat
     
  21. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #21
    And Palin wants a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, and wants the lines between church and state done away with.

    Outsourcing has done away with many jobs for Americans, period. You can't argue that it hasn't. That has definitely impacted the economy. Just because you don't need a job anymore, doesn't mean the rest of us don't.
     
  22. solvs macrumors 603

    solvs

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    #22
    I posted this in another thread:

    Economic Honor Roll (VIDEO)
    Economic Dishonor Roll (VIDEO)

    And not to be that guy or anything, but I remember a few of us here saying awhile ago that the economy wasn't doing as great as some seemed to think (and the Bush administration tried to make it seem) and were roundly criticized for it.
     
  23. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #23
    "And Palin wants a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, and wants the lines between church and state done away with."

    Irrelevant. Won't happen.

    "Outsourcing has done away with many jobs for Americans, period. You can't argue that it hasn't."

    I never have. I've merely pointed out some of the causes.

    "That has definitely impacted the economy."

    Of course it has. Until it happened in a macro sense, of course, nobody noticed. I first noticed it in 1962, when I worked at Chevrolet Test Lab. I was startled to learn that some Chevvie parts came from Canada.

    "Just because you don't need a job anymore, doesn't mean the rest of us don't."

    The problem is not the need of a job. The problem is the lack of ability to have a remunerative job which allows one his preferred lifestyle. So, when tradition goes out the window, one must needs find a non-traditional job. If IT or bookkeeping doesn't do it, try law or construction or some sort of maintenance or repair work. There is no excuse whatsoever for only knowing one skill or trade. None.

    Back to the thread: Insofar as interconnectivity between the US and the rest of the world, consider this little jewel and it's probable effect on our exports and jobs:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...on-the-brink-of-currency-crisis-meltdown.html

    "The financial crisis spreading like wildfire across the former Soviet bloc threatens to set off a second and more dangerous banking crisis in Western Europe, tipping the whole Continent into a fully-fledged economic slump.

    Currency pegs are being tested to destruction on the fringes of Europe’s monetary union in a traumatic upheaval that recalls the collapse of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.

    “This is the biggest currency crisis the world has ever seen,” said Neil Mellor, a strategist at Bank of New York Mellon."
     
  24. Brien macrumors 68020

    Brien

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    #24
    I do find it funny that the media is trying to tell us the sky is falling and yet at the same time, there's nothing wrong, no recession.

    When you look at the fact that there's a line of retailers waiting to go out of business (Linens N' Things, Mervyn's, Circuit City, Blockbuster, the list goes on and on) it's easy to see we're not in a good position.

    I think the bailout is a stop-gap solution but I don't think we're in for another great depression, although money and credit are going to get really tight.
     
  25. Sun Baked macrumors G5

    Sun Baked

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    #25
    Can I see my brother in-law's house underneath the crosshairs on this thing, and what does this lunch button do?
     

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