Remind me again, who is putting sanctions on whom?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Southern Dad, Aug 7, 2014.

  1. Southern Dad macrumors 65816

    Southern Dad

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    #1
    Russia imposes new import bans in sanctions stand-off. I thought we were imposing sanctions on Russia, not Russia imposing sanctions on us?

    Is Putin sending a message to the leaders of European nations about these sanctions? Sanctions can work both ways. Now, what happens to Europe if Russia decides to stop all exports of home heating oil? Winter is coming. 79% of Russia's oil production goes to Europe.

    Russia sanctions: Vladimir Putin retaliates, sanctions Canada

    Russia stops Bulgarian imports as punishment for the sanctions

    Russia to ban all U.S. agricultural imports

    Germany's Russian energy dilemma

    Russia Is Europe’s Gas Station
     
  2. iBlazed macrumors 68000

    iBlazed

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    #2
    Time for the Europeans to switch to natural gas heating. :eek:
     
  3. iStudentUK macrumors 65816

    iStudentUK

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    #3
    Russia need the revenue from gas and oil - an export ban would hurt them as much as the EU. Furthermore, the EU would eventually find other sources of oil and gas and Russia would lose out in the long term.
     
  4. G51989 macrumors 68030

    G51989

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    #4
    Ahhh Natural gas which Russia is also....one of the largest producers in the world.

    ----------

    I mean, lose out in the long term? Probably not, j ust because the EU really doesn't have anywhere else to go for affordable fuel. The US is the other huge producer, but it can't fill its own needs.

    Added to the fact that Russia will just sell anything it can't sell to the EU straight to China, who is eating up fuel at an insane rate.
     
  5. Happybunny macrumors 68000

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    #5
    The most common thought around Europe at this present time is that Russia will not cut off gas and oil supplies to the EU.(for the reasons stated above)
    The other sanctions that Russia has imposed are going to be used to try to pry Europe away from the US/UK. The idea being that mainland Europe will suffer while the Anglo Saxon economies don’t, only time will tell if this ploy can work.

    If cracks start to appear it will be the southern countries of the EU which buckle first.
     
  6. miloblithe, Aug 7, 2014
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2014

    miloblithe macrumors 68020

    miloblithe

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    #6
    As the Ruble drops to 36 per dollar (from an average of about 30 from 2010 to 2013) banning food imports (which will raise prices even more) will only serve to remind the Russian populace that they live in a god forsaken hellhole of a country that's incapable of producing enough food.

    The articles above mention that Russia will have to replace the food imports with imports from other countries or make their own. That reminds me of the Siberian wine I tried once. It tasted like turpentine with a few drops of low quality grape juice added.
     
  7. Happybunny macrumors 68000

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    #7
    But if large scale unemployment hits various nations of Europe, the will to stand firm might just crumble.
     
  8. miloblithe macrumors 68020

    miloblithe

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    #8
    Europe, by their virtue of being relatively democratic countries that are responsive to their populations, will crumble before Russia--an autocratic country well practiced in suffering and blaming other countries for their woes.
     
  9. Happybunny macrumors 68000

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    #9
    What cannot be under estimated is some countries of the EU like Spain Greece Cyprus, have gone through a living hell of unemployment for the last 6 years. Now just when they start to see light at the end of the road, this happens.
     
  10. Southern Dad thread starter macrumors 65816

    Southern Dad

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    #10
    I agree that a gas and oil ban would hurt Russia. However, while it would hurt Russia what would or could it do to any sanctions that the EU were to be putting on Russia? A very expensive and cold winter could have a chilling effect upon the EU's view of Russia.

    Remember Putin only needs currency if others are trading with him. If the other countries are using sanctions or even an embargo against him, money on hand means nothing.
     
  11. Michael Goff macrumors G4

    Michael Goff

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    #11
    But the question is who can absorb the hurt better.
     
  12. thekev macrumors 604

    thekev

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    #12
    The agricultural import ban primarily hurts his own people. I'm not sure what he hopes to accomplish there.
     
  13. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #13
    If Obama was smart, he'd ban Apple from exporting the new iPhones to Russia. That would rile up the population. :D
     
  14. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #14
    It's unlikely that Europe is willing to endure even one cold winter without Russian oil or natural gas, just to support America's failed and rudderless foreign policy.
     
  15. vrDrew macrumors 65816

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    #15
    I'd recommend reading this analysis of Vladimir Putin's essentially failed statesmanship, written by former US Ambassador to Moscow Michael McFaul.

    It's a ~ 10 minute read, but IMHO definitely worth it to better understand where this conflict came from, and where its likely going. (McFaul doesn't believe Putin will compound his errors by actually invading eastern Ukraine.)

    Putin has managed to destabilize parts of eastern Ukraine, and boosted - temporarily at least - his approval inside Russia itself. But he has failed miserably in his larger goals. Roughly $75 billion in assets has left Russia since the start of the crisis (money the country desperately needs to continue investment and economic growth.) The goodwill and international prestige Putin spent tens of billions on in Sochi vanished, overnight, with the downing of the Malaysian airliner.

    This crisis erupted in large part because Ukraine declined to join Putin's Eurasian Economic organization. That will never happen now. And by his rash actions, Putin has made the prospect of US troops being stationed in Poland and the Baltic States - previously Russia's worst military scenario - all that more likely.

    Russia embargoing US fruits and vegetables? In the big scheme of things, who cares?
     
  16. Southern Dad thread starter macrumors 65816

    Southern Dad

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    I agree with this. There was a time that other countries wouldn't have went against the USA on a matter such as this but I think those times are past.

    It's just a twist that Russia decide to embargo us rather than wait for the sanctions to start to cripple his economy. I think he's showing the world that he doesn't need to trade with the USA. I've visited Russia twice. Once under the old USSR and once since the break up. It isn't the dark, horrible place that many picture it.

    Some of the best heirloom tomatoes are from Russia. Yes, they will lose oranges and corn but Russia grows turnips, cabbage, beets, potatoes, onions, garlic and cucumbers in large amounts. It isn't likely to cause the Russian people to starve.

    I really think that we, the USA is messing with the wrong guy. Vladimir Putin isn't going to blink. His putting sanctions on our imports is his way of telling us he doesn't need us.
     
  17. miloblithe macrumors 68020

    miloblithe

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    #17
    Russians won't starve. That's true. They'll have bread, potatoes, cabbage, beets, etc, as you say. If these sanctions really happen, they'll seriously want for meat, which Russia doesn't produce in sufficient amounts. The Russians I knew weren't exactly vegetarians (they believed vegetarianism is impossible in Russia because the climate is so harsh), so they will eventually get pissed about this. Putin's approval ratings had dropped near 50% before invading Ukraine (wars are always popular at first). In the long run, these actions are going to make life worse for Russians, and they're going to get pissed about it. Putin's pretty good at propaganda and intimidation, so maybe he'll channel all that rage towards the U.S. Maybe not.

    Why all the Putin love? Why do you admire him so much?
     
  18. bradl macrumors 68040

    bradl

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    #18
    If Obama were smart, he'd do no such thing.

    If the Chinese are so worried that Apple let the NSA throw some spyware on their devices, Obama (or any POTUS) would only hope that Putin buys an iPhone or iPad.

    Reality of it though, is that Putin is already aware of this, via Snowden, and is a couple steps ahead of the game.

    BL.
     
  19. Happybunny macrumors 68000

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    #19
    Russia’s 1-year ban on food products from the EU, US, Canada, and Norway will force Russia to increase food imports from Latin America, specifically Ecuador, Brazil, Chile, and Argentina.

    Russia will ban meat, dairy, fruit, and vegetable imports from countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine conflict, which opens the door to Russia’s partners on the other side of the world.

    Russia will have to fill an 8 percent gap in its total agricultural imports that it sources from the EU, USA, Canada, Australia, and Norway. The Netherlands, Germany, and Poland are currently Russia’s biggest food suppliers in the EU.

    Meat and dairy products from Ecuador, Chile and Uruguay may appear on Russian supermarket shelves as early as September, said Julia Trofimova, a at Rosselkhoznadzor, Russia’s consumer watchdog.

    On Wednesday the three countries confirmed they are ready to start supplying Russia with agricultural goods and Moscow will soon hold meetings with ambassadors from Brazil and Argentina.

    Import bans could be expanded to any country that has a sanction policy against Russia, including: Albania, Australia, the United Kingdom, Germany, the European Union, Iceland, Canada, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Moldova, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, the USA, Ukraine, France, Montenegro, Switzerland, Estonia and Japan.

    Here's what the key Latin America economies have to offer.

    Brazil
    Brazil’s main agriculture exports are soybeans, raw sugar, meat, coffee, and tobacco. In 2012, the turnover of trade between Russia and Brazil reached $5.9 billion, and total exports to Russia were $3.14 billion, or about 7 percent of the total $43 billion of goods Russia imported from now sanctioned- countries last year.

    The 2014 World Cup host has already expressed interest in expanding into the Russian market and is ready to export meat and dairy products to Russia. In order for this measure to go through, Russia’s consumer watchdog, Roselkhoznadzor, will have to annul a restriction against Brazilian meat companies it imposed in July 2011.

    "Given the results of the negotiations, the interest of Russian importers, taking guarantees from the Veterinary Service of Brazil, Rosselkhoznadzor considers it possible to cancel the temporary restrictions on the number of Brazilian companies for the production of animal products," the Russian watchdog said.

    Before the restrictions in 2011, Brazil was the number one meat supplier to Russia.

    Argentina
    Agricultural products dominate Argentina’s export tally. Russia imports Argentinian pears, grapes, apples, citrus fruits, beef, peanuts, butter, and cheese, and in 2012 trade turnover exceeded $1 billion. Meat producers in Argentina are considering the possibility of increasing meat exports to Russia, but like Brazil, it faces trade restrictions.

    Chile
    In 2013, Chile exported $567 million worth of agricultural products to Russia, mostly salmon, trout, fruit, pork, and wine. Russia imports a large amount of gelatin - an ingredient used to make jello and cakes – from Chile. Regionally, Chile exports an array of fruits, including grapes, avocadoes, berries, plums, and kiwis.

    Ecuador
    Even though Ecuador primarily sends exports to the US and EU, it still has the potential to cut into the Russian agriculture and raw materials market. At present, bananas, cut flower, and coffee and tea are sent eastward to Russia.

    http://rt.com/business/178664-latin-america-benefits-russia-ban/
     
  20. vrDrew macrumors 65816

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    #20
    Russia's sanctions on US fruits and vegetables are all but meaningless. We export very little of such agricultural products to Russia, and US growers presently have far bigger things to worry about (like the crippling drought in the West.) And sanctions and embargoes on Russian gas exports simply make US gas supplies (we are on track to become the leading exporter) that much more valuable. The increased value of our natural gas dwarfs any losses from embargoed fruit.

    We are "messing with the wrong guy"?

    I'm not sure what the alternative is. Are we supposed to just let him destabilize and annex Ukraine? Declare war on Russia? I'm sure the Sarah Palin School of International Relations will come up with some cockamamie theory that we "emboldened Putin through our weakness" - but outside of the dimmer reaches of Fox News that theory doesn't hold up to reality.

    The truth of the matter is we are responding the best way we can. Putin and Russia in 2014 are in no way analogous to Hitler and Germany in 1938. Our sanctions and leadership have finally galvanized both the EU and NATO to take concrete steps to isolate Russia. Putin's actions have further strengthened the resolve of the Baltic republics and other former Soviet satellite nations to integrate both militarily and economically with the West.

    The "best" that Putin can hope for vis-a-vis Ukraine is to have a continued weakened and destabilized neighbor on his western border. If that's Putin's idea of "winning" - its a very strange one.
     
  21. Southern Dad thread starter macrumors 65816

    Southern Dad

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    #21
    Where have I said that I admire him? I'm just being very matter of fact about it. Putin isn't just a newcomer to the scene. The Russians have elected him more than once. They don't have Fox, NBC, ABC, CNN, etc so you could be right on the propaganda.

    This isn't our fight. If Russia decides to roll tanks into its neighboring countries are we going to put US boots on the ground? I hope not. There are certain classic blunders. "The most famous of which is never get involved in a land war in Asia" - The Princess Bride

    Excellent post.
     
  22. shinji macrumors 65816

    shinji

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    #22
    He may keep Crimea and prevent the Ukraine from joining the EU.

    But I agree it's in no way analogous to Hitler and Germany in the 30's. I get sick of seeing that comparison.
     
  23. Ugg macrumors 68000

    Ugg

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    #23
    Putin took one step too far over the line. His import embargoes are mostly meaningless.

    As the excellent article by the former ambassador pointed out, Putin had it all after Sochi and then he squandered it all. When his billionaire buddies suddenly become mere millionaires, you can bet that Putin can start counting his days in power.
     
  24. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    #24
    I'm assuming that mathematicians and economists [and others] consult with the nations' leaders to war-game these scenarios and forecast the effects of sanctions and the retaliatory moves that are sure to follow.

    I'd love to sit in on one of those meetings.
     
  25. Southern Dad thread starter macrumors 65816

    Southern Dad

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    #25
    Hold on... You think that President Obama really seeks out counsel of other before telling Putin, he'll have more leeway after the election?
     

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