Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Apple Q411 Earnings Call

[MacRumors]

Philip Elmer-Dewitt has put together his list of analyst expectations ahead of Apple's quarterly earnings report this afternoon. The list includes estimates from 16 "independent" analysts and 42 "affiliated" analysts who work for large investment houses or research organizations.

As usual, the independent analysts are much more bullish than the affiliated analysts. The independent consensus expects earnings per share (EPS) of $9.07 on revenue of $33.47 billion. The institutional consensus is EPS of $7.31 on $29.45 billion in revenue.




Click through to Elmer-DeWitt's post at Fortune to see the full-size chart.

Apple will announce its earnings for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2011 (third calendar quarter) and host a conference call regarding the release this afternoon at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific. The earnings release itself typically comes in around 4:30 PM Eastern.

Last quarter the company announced record-breaking results in a number of areas, including $7.31 billion in profit on revenue of $28.57 billion. For the fourth fiscal quarter, Apple has issued guidance of $25 billion in revenue with profits of $5.50 per share.

Article Link: Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Apple Q411 Earnings Call

 

[Naimfan]

I can't help but think two things:

First, the results will be overshadowed by Steve's passing.

Second, the results will still be terrific by any objective measure.

 

[Small White Car]

My guess:

Highest numbers ever in all categories. Stock will drop like a brick anyway.

 

[andreiru]

Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPod; CPU iPhone OS 5_0 like Mac OS X) AppleWebKit/534.46 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.1 Mobile/9A334 Safari/7534.48.3)

Remarkable.

 

[cvaldes]

My wild-@$$ guess: $9.25 EPS on $34B in revenue.

 

[bobob]

Who got it right last time?

 

[*LTD*]

Rumor has it that Apple shipped *only* 13 million iPads, which happens to be a record, blowing away the previous record of 9-something million.

Meanwhile the numbers are said to indicate that the tablet market outside the iPad is struggling a little more than previously.

 

[liven2]

No matter what -- the stock price will drop if...

I say this with Sarcasm but also with some level of truth...

Do not be surprised if the stock price drops significantly if those number are not beat by significant levels. I think investors expectations are much higher and last weeks run up will possible encourage some profit taking. I HOPE I AM WRONG!!

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My guess:

Highest numbers ever in all categories. Stock will drop like a brick anyway.

agreed!!

 

[androidfan]

The stock and Apple as a company is slowing down Androids marketshare is beginning to crush them. Also it will be overshadowed by the Android event today

 

[Mattsasa]

I say this with Sarcasm but also with some level of truth...

Do not be surprised if the stock price drops significantly if those number are not beat by significant levels. I think investors expectations are much higher and last weeks run up will possible encourage some profit taking. I HOPE I AM WRONG!!

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agreed!!

I don't understand.

Why does the stock drop after apple announces financial results?

 

[*LTD*]

The stock and Apple as a company is slowing down Androids marketshare is beginning to crush them. Also it will be overshadowed by the Android event today

We keep hearing this from the Android fans who inexplicably camp Apple-centric sites, yet the opposite keeps happening.

I'm afraid that no competitor's event can overshadow the iPhone-mania that is happening now - worldwide - in response to the 4S.

 

[Nungster]

The stock and Apple as a company is slowing down Androids marketshare is beginning to crush them. Also it will be overshadowed by the Android event today

Android market share is up , but AAPL can still deliver beyond expectations.
The independent analysts have been correct more often than Wall Street, and I feel that they will be closer to the actual numbers than the street.

 

[Naimfan]

I don't understand.

Why does the stock drop after apple announces financial results?

It's an old stock market truism: Buy on rumor, sell on news.

 

[Mattsasa]

ah, either way Apple's market cap is close to becoming double Microsofts, with Apple's being close to 400B and Microsoft around 220B

 

[Small White Car]

I don't understand.

Why does the stock drop after apple announces financial results?

A little bit of some people simply selling because they want to take advantage while things are good.

And possibly a little bit because large investors convince small ones to do just that, then take advantage of the cheap price in a big way.

There's always a lot of odd things happening around Apple stock that doesn't seem to make sense and yet happens again and again. Doesn't seem like a coincidence.

 

[*LTD*]

ah, either way Apple's market cap is close to becoming double Microsofts, with Apple's being close to 400B and Microsoft around 220B

What did you expect?

One company creates real value and pushes the market forward. The other one creates vapourware videos and milks the same ish they've been milking for the past 20 years, hoping the trend will somehow continue forever.

There's a reason Apple has MS firmly in their rearview and is seeing them get smaller with every quarter.

 

[wovel]

The stock and Apple as a company is slowing down Androids marketshare is beginning to crush them. Also it will be overshadowed by the Android event today

People have made this claim for years. During those years Apple stock and revenue has outgrown all of the Android manufacturers combined (and individually, since companies like Motorola always lose money, it may screw up the figures).

 

[RafaelT]

The stock and Apple as a company is slowing down Androids marketshare is beginning to crush them. Also it will be overshadowed by the Android event today

You are joking, right?

Also, Tim Cook could call a press conference to announce that someone at apple just pooped and it would over shadow any Android or other tech event for that matter.

 

[Spoony]

First off I advise everyone to listen in on the earnings call. It's actually really informative and you learn a lot. Tim cook talks a lot and Peter Oppenheimer talks a lot. After that the analysts get to ask 20 mins of questions. Go to apple.com and there is a link in "investor relations" it's quicktime. It's like a 45 min thing. I think it starts like 4:30 or so.

Stock drops after earings if
1. some metric falls short of expections
2. forward guidance is not bullish.

For example This quarter last year Apples Gross margin decreased a lot more than analysis thought. Even though apple crushed all other metrics the stock dropped considerably b/c they got worried apple was making less per device.

Over the past year the gross margin has actually been increasing so that concern was all for nothing.

I expect a pop after hours once they announce earnings. going to have incredible forward guidance with the new iphone 4S. Costs are down meaning margins are up b/c components are cheaper and it's the same design.

The past two quarters the stock went up after the earnings were released.

Disclosure: I'm long apple common shares.

----------

What did you expect?

One company creates real value and pushes the market forward. The other one creates vapourware videos and milks the same ish they've been milking for the past 20 years, hoping the trend will somehow continue forever.

There's a reason Apple has MS firmly in their rearview and is seeing them get smaller with every quarter.

Also Microsoft at it's height was valued at over $600B. So Apple at $400B although it sounds like a lot is still $200B off Microsoft. Apple has a lot of room to grow. They will eventually pass that $600B mark. Stock is cheap relative to growth and earnings.

 

[iMikeT]

Here's to hoping that I can make some money with my 6 shares of aapl.

 

[alent1234]

First off I advise everyone to listen in on the earnings call. It's actually really informative and you learn a lot. Tim cook talks a lot and Peter Oppenheimer talks a lot. After that the analysts get to ask 20 mins of questions. Go to apple.com and there is a link in "investor relations" it's quicktime. It's like a 45 min thing. I think it starts like 4:30 or so.

Stock drops after earings if
1. some metric falls short of expections
2. forward guidance is not bullish.

For example This quarter last year Apples Gross margin decreased a lot more than analysis thought. Even though apple crushed all other metrics the stock dropped considerably b/c they got worried apple was making less per device.

Over the past year the gross margin has actually been increasing so that concern was all for nothing.

I expect a pop after hours once they announce earnings. going to have incredible forward guidance with the new iphone 4S. Costs are down meaning margins are up b/c components are cheaper and it's the same design.

The past two quarters the stock went up after the earnings were released.

Disclosure: I'm long apple common shares.

----------



Also Microsoft at it's height was valued at over $600B. So Apple at $400B although it sounds like a lot is still $200B off Microsoft. Apple has a lot of room to grow. They will eventually pass that $600B mark. Stock is cheap relative to growth and earnings.

the costs per device are down but apple is paying for icloud which is paid for by the hardware sales

 

[samcraig]

What did you expect?

One company creates real value and pushes the market forward. The other one creates vapourware videos and milks the same ish they've been milking for the past 20 years, hoping the trend will somehow continue forever.

There's a reason Apple has MS firmly in their rearview and is seeing them get smaller with every quarter.

I love when you make up crap like this. Yes - clearly Microsoft hasn't done a thing in 20 years.

If you want people to discuss things with you using facts - why don't you practice what you preach?

 

[Nungster]

I don't understand.

Why does the stock drop after apple announces financial results?

look at 7/19/2011
4/20/2011 and 1/18/2011 and tell me if you'd rather have bought the stock then or now.

Those are the last three earnings reporting dates.

 

[KPOM]

First off I advise everyone to listen in on the earnings call. It's actually really informative and you learn a lot. Tim cook talks a lot and Peter Oppenheimer talks a lot. After that the analysts get to ask 20 mins of questions. Go to apple.com and there is a link in "investor relations" it's quicktime. It's like a 45 min thing. I think it starts like 4:30 or so.

Stock drops after earnings if
1. some metric falls short of expections
2. forward guidance is not bullish.


Disclosure: I'm long apple common shares.

Long, too.

Anyway, I agree that the analyst call can be informative. If you can't make it, there is usually a recording later on. It's interesting to see what questions get asked. Macworld and CBS Marketwatch usually run good live blogs, as well (Macworld more on the raw shipment data and CBS on the financial data).

I think the guidance will be critical. There's a rumor that Apple "only" sold 13 million iPads in Q4, so it will be interesting to see what the real number is. Plus in the holiday quarter, Amazon is firing with all cylinders with the Kindle Fire. The early iPhone 4S sales data has blunted concerns that an incremental update would be overshadowed by other releases, though certainly there will be some concern that the Nexus Prime and Moto RAZR will steal some sales.

Analysts know that Apple always puts out conservative guidance, and take that into account when making "real" estimates. They probably have "real" estimates of what they think the forecast will be, so if it is lower, they might trade down. Plus, Apple is seen as a bellwether for the tech industry. If they are predicting a downturn, then that will weigh on the entire industry (under the "if Apple can't sell, who can?" philosophy).

 

[Nungster]

Here's to hoping that I can make some money with my 6 shares of aapl.

You should learn to trade options my friend.

----------

First off I advise everyone to listen in on the earnings call. It's actually really informative and you learn a lot. Tim cook talks a lot and Peter Oppenheimer talks a lot. After that the analysts get to ask 20 mins of questions. Go to apple.com and there is a link in "investor relations" it's quicktime. It's like a 45 min thing. I think it starts like 4:30 or so.

Stock drops after earings if
1. some metric falls short of expections
2. forward guidance is not bullish.

For example This quarter last year Apples Gross margin decreased a lot more than analysis thought. Even though apple crushed all other metrics the stock dropped considerably b/c they got worried apple was making less per device.

Over the past year the gross margin has actually been increasing so that concern was all for nothing.

I expect a pop after hours once they announce earnings. going to have incredible forward guidance with the new iphone 4S. Costs are down meaning margins are up b/c components are cheaper and it's the same design.

The past two quarters the stock went up after the earnings were released.

Disclosure: I'm long apple common shares.

----------



Also Microsoft at it's height was valued at over $600B. So Apple at $400B although it sounds like a lot is still $200B off Microsoft. Apple has a lot of room to grow. They will eventually pass that $600B mark. Stock is cheap relative to growth and earnings.

Finally, some real sense. Tune in and listen for yourselves people. Whether you have $500 or $5000000 at stake, listen to the horse's mouth and form your own opinion.

We live in a wonderful time where the small guy can get the same info as the institutions. take advantage of it!