Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Apple's Q1 2012 Earnings Call

MacRumors

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Original poster
Apr 12, 2001
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Philip Elmer-Dewitt has assembled his list of analyst expectations ahead of Apple's quarterly earnings report Tuesday afternoon. The list includes estimates from 17 "independent" analysts and 34 "affiliated" analysts who work for large investment houses or research organizations.

As usual, the independent analysts are much more bullish than the affiliated analysts. The independent consensus expects earnings per share (EPS) of $12.01 on revenue of $43.14 billion. The institutional consensus is EPS of $10.19 on $39.23 billion in revenue.




Click through to Elmer-DeWitt's post at Fortune to see the full-size chart.

Last quarter Apple announced it had broken $100 billion in sales for fiscal 2011, the first time it had breached that figure, and posted $6.62 billion in profit on revenue of $28.27 billion. For the first fiscal quarter of 2012, Apple has issued guidance of $37 billion in revenue with profits of $9.30 per diluted share.

Apple's best quarter ever was fiscal Q311 when it posted $7.31 billion in profit on sales of $28.57 billion. It appears Apple will solidly beat those numbers this quarter, posting its best results ever.

Apple will announce its earnings for the first fiscal quarter of 2012 (fourth calendar quarter of 2011) and host a conference call regarding the release on Tuesday January 24th at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific. The earnings release itself typically comes in around 4:30 PM Eastern.

Article Link: Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Apple's Q1 2012 Earnings Call
 

iMikeT

macrumors 68020
Jul 8, 2006
2,304
1
California
Why do I have the feeling that analysts' expectations are too high again and Apple will "miss" like they did last quarter and the stock price will be punished the next day?
 

Wang Foolio

macrumors regular
Jan 11, 2010
164
0
No matter what, some of the analysts will find a way to spin the results as "disappointing". Even if Apple beats its own targets, these industry types always figure they'll obliterate every expectation. I'm guessing a 2% drop following the results (keep in mind I'm just some sarcastic guy on a forum, not an "anslyst", whatever that means).

As someone with no Apple stock, it's pretty fun to watch, that's for sure :D For those who are both fans and investors, it must be a frustrating day!
 

shompa

macrumors 6502
Jul 23, 2002
387
0
No matter what, some of the analysts will find a way to spin the results as "disappointing". Even if Apple beats its own targets, these industry types always figure they'll obliterate every expectation. I'm guessing a 2% drop following the results (keep in mind I'm just some sarcastic guy on a forum, not an "anslyst", whatever that means).

As someone with no Apple stock, it's pretty fun to watch, that's for sure :D For those who are both fans and investors, it must be a frustrating day!
Just like last Quarter. Apple "missed" target and only had 54% bigger profit. :roll eyes:

Tomorrow they will say that iPhones missed targets with only 35 million sold. iPad is doomed since Kindle RuleeeeeZzzZ.

BTW. Apple could have larger revenue in 1 quarter then Google have in a year.
 

Chupa Chupa

macrumors G5
Jul 16, 2002
14,834
7,369
Big question is will the BODs will announce a dividend as some Apple watchers have suggested it will. SJ didn't believe in dividends, but Art Levinson is Chairman of the Board now. Of course they might wait until the shareholders meeting, but I think it must be coming. Too much pressure on Apple not to distribute some profits to shareholders.
 

BuddyTronic

macrumors 65816
Jul 11, 2008
1,195
820
Who wants to play 'what the stock will end at' game for Weds?
I don't know - it's always crazy.

Scenario 1
They will post the best results ever, so as usual I would say AAPL should jump up - maybe I'd put money down and say $460 for Wednesday.

Scenario 2
But you know what? The usual thing that happens is that the shares will drop a big amount (say down to 405, and then pop back up to an all time high a week later up to something like $440 after everyone realizes that everything is OK.

I'd put my money down on Scenario 1 though, but wouldn't be surprised to see the usual drop thing.


ACTUALLY - I looked at what I wrote and I'm not saying much EXCEPT that I guess I believe that the stock will not remain at $427. I think you will see some big delta here in the price. Up or Down, your guess is better than mine probably. If I reconsidered this one, I'd now be putting my money that AAPL will be higher than $450 and/or lower than $408 - that's my "spread"
 
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sparks05

macrumors member
Aug 18, 2011
35
0
Colorado
Apple will crush estimates

Simple math shows that Apple will crush estimates this quarter. Looks like the consensus for iPhone unit sales is about 30 million. My estimate is 35.5 million. This is based on simple math. Here are some notes I made a couple of days ago.

  • In Q3 Verizon sold 2 million iphones while Apple sold a total of over 17 million. Therefore, Verizon's iPhone sales represented 12% of total iPhone sales. In Q4 Verizon sold 4.2 million. 4.2 million is 12% of 35 million--pointing to 35 million iPhone sales.
  • Apple recorded 1.7 million iPhone sales when the iPhone 4 was launched. This represents about 12% of total sales for that quarter. This year Apple recorded over 4 million iPhone sales during the opening weekend of the iPhone 4S. 4 million is 12% of 34 million--pointing to 34 million iPhone sales.
  • This quarter an additional carrier was added in the United States: Sprint.
  • Sprint declared its sales record was broken by 1PM EST on iPhone 4S launch day.
  • AT&T was on track to double record iPhone activations in a single day for iPhone 4S launch--meaning double the day they released the iPhone 4. So if Apple's iPhone sales doubled for the 4S quarter just as they did with the iPhone 4 quarter, this is pointing to 34 million iPhone sales this quarter.
  • There is an extra week in Q4 compared with Q3.
  • The iPhone 4S launch falls in a quarter that leads right up to Christmas, including all holiday sales. The iPhone 4 was released in the summer. It is very likely that iPhone 4S sales kept more momentum than the iPhone 4 due to the holidays.
  • Tim Cook's (Apple CEO) words should not be taken lightly: this marks "our fastest iPhone rollout ever"; "Customer response to products in China has been off the charts"; "we--in our wildest dreams, we couldn't have gotten off to a start as great as we have on the 4S."
  • Apple has lower priced and more competitive iPhones available for purchase than it did when the iPhone 4 launched.
  • Apple's Asia-Pacific segment is exploding and difficult for analysts to keep up with.
 

BornAgainMac

macrumors 603
Feb 4, 2004
6,388
3,268
Florida Resident
It looks like it might go up after the earnings call. This is only based on patterns in the stock from the past. The professional investor knows more than me.
 

phpmaven

macrumors 68040
Jun 12, 2009
3,398
453
San Clemente, CA USA
I'm a bit confused. Aren't sales and revenue pretty much the same thing? 100 Billion in sales and only $42.14 Billion in revenue? I'm assuming that $42.14 billion figure is for the first or last 2 quarters of the year since they did $28.27 billion in the 4th quarter alone.
 

cmvsm

macrumors 6502a
Nov 12, 2004
784
0
I'm a bit confused. Aren't sales and revenue pretty much the same thing? 100 Billion in sales and only $42.14 Billion in revenue? I'm assuming that $42.14 billion figure is for the first or last 2 quarters of the year since they did $28.27 billion in the 4th quarter alone.
Sales can be a subset of Revenue. The Revenue of a business can contain other income from investments, licenses, debt interest, or sales income. However, for businesses that don't offer up credit or have investments, then yes, total Sales may equal that of total Revenue. I'd say that Apple has plenty of investments and does extend credit, so in their case, total Sales would not be equal to total Revenue.
 

sparks05

macrumors member
Aug 18, 2011
35
0
Colorado
sales = revenue

Sales can be a subset of Revenue. The Revenue of a business can contain other income from investments, licenses, debt interest, or sales income. However, for businesses that don't offer up credit or have investments, then yes, total Sales may equal that of total Revenue. I'd say that Apple has plenty of investments and does extend credit, so in their case, total Sales would not be equal to total Revenue.
Sales equal revenue for Apple. The article is speaking of 2011 "fiscal" revenue exceeding $100 billion for the first time. It was simply saying that the total revenue for 2011 exceeding $100 billion for the first time.

Then it goes to speak of expectations of the revenue for this quarter. Analysts estimate that Apple will have over 42 billion in sales/revenue in this quarter alone.

sales = revenue ;)
 

cvaldes

macrumors 68040
Dec 14, 2006
3,237
0
somewhere else
I'm a bit confused. Aren't sales and revenue pretty much the same thing? 100 Billion in sales and only $42.14 Billion in revenue? I'm assuming that $42.14 billion figure is for the first or last 2 quarters of the year since they did $28.27 billion in the 4th quarter alone.
Sales and revenue are basically the same.

The reason why you are getting confused is because the $100B refers to Fiscal 2011 sales. The $43.14B figure refers to estimated sales in Q1FY12, i.e., what Apple is about to announce.

You're comparing one quarter's estimated sales to that of the entire previous fiscal year.
 

nylonsteel

macrumors 6502a
Nov 5, 2010
791
34
re original article

i'm always amused when i see how much the aapl cash pile grows each quarter

role the bones aapl
 

IJ Reilly

macrumors P6
Jul 16, 2002
17,892
1,466
Palookaville
Why do I have the feeling that analysts' expectations are too high again and Apple will "miss" like they did last quarter and the stock price will be punished the next day?
Forest for the trees. The markets begin to anticipate earnings reports as the street estimates arrive in the weeks beforehand. Experienced investors know that the institutional analysts are conservative so anything less than a significant beat is generally seen as a disappointment. If the street is saying $10.00 EPS then it better be $11.00 or more. Last quarter wasn't a beat, it was under the street, which is bad, since the market was already anticipating the street, plus 10% or so. It's also not to form for Apple to miss the street. It was the first time that's happened since 2004. Read Philip Elmer-Dewitt's article. It's brief but explains some of this clearly. Some of the comments on his article are also good.

In any case, only day traders and speculators worry about this. Investors look at what happens to a stock in the weeks before earnings are announced and for the week or so afterwards. That's where investor sentiment is really expressed, not in daily gyrations.
 

iMikeT

macrumors 68020
Jul 8, 2006
2,304
1
California
I just bought Apple stock on Friday :eek:

I did something similar last quarter thinking that AAPL was easy money just days before their earnings announcement, boy was I wrong. AAPL beat its own estimates but didn't beat bonehead analysts' unrealistically high expectations and I got stuck having to hold AAPL.


bad timing....where were you 5 years ago.. ;)

More like 16 years ago when AAPL was trading for $3/share.


Forest for the trees. The markets begin to anticipate earnings reports as the street estimates arrive in the weeks beforehand. Experienced investors know that the institutional analysts are conservative so anything less than a significant beat is generally seen as a disappointment. If the street is saying $10.00 EPS then it better be $11.00 or more. Last quarter wasn't a beat, it was under the street, which is bad, since the market was already anticipating the street, plus 10% or so. It's also not to form for Apple to miss the street. It was the first time that's happened since 2004. Read Philip Elmer-Dewitt's article. It's brief but explains some of this clearly. Some of the comments on his article are also good.

In any case, only day traders and speculators worry about this. Investors look at what happens to a stock in the weeks before earnings are announced and for the week or so afterwards. That's where investor sentiment is really expressed, not in daily gyrations.

I don't consider myself an investor. At best, maybe a very short-term investor. And by short-term I mean that I usually hold onto stocks for no more than a couple of weeks unless I get stuck, that's my trading pattern.
 

smoledman

macrumors 68000
Oct 17, 2011
1,912
309
Just like last Quarter. Apple "missed" target and only had 54% bigger profit. :roll eyes:

Tomorrow they will say that iPhones missed targets with only 35 million sold. iPad is doomed since Kindle RuleeeeeZzzZ.

BTW. Apple could have larger revenue in 1 quarter then Google have in a year.
You see this is the kind of fanboying which should be left at Macdailynews.
 

Slurpy2k8

macrumors 6502
Feb 26, 2008
383
0
I can't even wrap my mind around 35million phones. Damn.
Wasn't that long ago that 5 million iPhones per quarter was incredibly impressive.