Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q3 2013 Earnings Call

Discussion in 'MacRumors.com News Discussion' started by MacRumors, Jul 23, 2013.

  1. MacRumors macrumors bot

    MacRumors

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    Philip Elmer-Dewitt has assembled his quarterly list of analyst predictions ahead of Apple's earnings report this afternoon. The list includes estimates from 59 analysts: 21 "independent" and 38 "institutional" who work for large investment houses or research organizations.

    Apple's stock price remains down significantly from its highs of last year, and investors are concerned about Apple's growth prospects across both existing and potential new product lines.

    As far as hardware goes, Apple only introduced new MacBook Air models during the past quarter, and only in the final month. The company is not expected to introduce new iPhone models -- its financial bread and butter -- before the last month of Q4.

    [​IMG]
    Two quarters ago, Apple changed how it provides financial guidance, choosing to offer a range of guidance for what the company believes it can achieve, rather than a point prediction. Apple provided guidance for the third quarter for revenue of between $33.5 and $35.5 billion and gross margin between 36% and 37%.

    Last year, in the third quarter of 2012, Apple reported a profit of $8.8 billion on $35 billion in revenue.

    Apple will announce its earnings for the third fiscal quarter of 2013 (second calendar quarter of 2012) and host a conference call regarding the release this afternoon at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific. The earnings release itself typically comes in around 4:30 PM Eastern. MacRumors will have live coverage of the proceedings.

    Article Link: Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q3 2013 Earnings Call
     
  2. lars666 macrumors 6502a

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  3. ka-spot macrumors 6502a

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  4. needfx macrumors 68040

    needfx

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    #4
    my mental projection of analysts is a group headless chickens running in all directions

    except Kuo of course. he's the rooster
     
  5. ValSalva macrumors 68040

    ValSalva

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    #5
    Sadly it seems nothing Apple could realistically announce later will change this. It feels almost pre-programmed. The sharks are circling...
     
  6. nihilisticmonk macrumors 6502

    nihilisticmonk

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    #6
    So that's 10pm BST right?
    I'll be back around 11pm then to see if there's any retina goodness to be had.
     
  7. scbn macrumors 6502

    scbn

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    #7
    Oh man, here we go again. Now the expectations have gone down so low, I wonder if Apple will surprise us to the up side this time.
     
  8. Newton70 macrumors regular

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    #8
    I hope Apple at least meets its own financial guidance, or things will get ugly real fast....unless they forecast above expectations for the current or next quarter...in which case the stock should go up even if they didn't meet last quarter's forecast.
     
  9. drummerdude1390 macrumors member

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    #9
    What are the odds that the Dev Portal will before the Earnings so that they don't have to respond to questions.

    One can hope, no?
     
  10. TallManNY macrumors 601

    TallManNY

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    #10
    One would think that with the dearth of new products, that Apple would be improving its cost structure. It doesn't seem like we are seeing that effect in these gradually eroding gross margins. But I'm optimistic iPhone and iPad sales will be better than expected. Certainly in the US we already have the reports from Verizon of large sales and T-Mobile as been added to the mix.

    I will be refreshing every five minutes starting at 4:30 to get the report.
     
  11. Carnegie macrumors 6502a

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    #11
    I think it would be fair to say that Apple's own EPS guidance was about $6.58 - $7.50. I say about only because we don't have an estimate (from Apple) for the number of (diluted) shares that will be used in the EPS computation.

    As they suggested in a previous conference call, if someone wants their effective EPS guidance it only requires a bit of arithmetic based on the guidance they gave for revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, other income, and tax rate.
     
  12. powers74, Jul 23, 2013
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2013

    powers74 macrumors 68000

    powers74

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    #12
    Talk about going private

    Stock price. Harrumph.

    If anyone should it's Apple, not Dell.

    Wouldn't it just be Apple's style? Use a system that serves it's purpose for the time, and then drop it like a bad habit the moment it becomes feasible to do so.
     
  13. Intarweb macrumors 6502a

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    #13
    Stock is going to take a hit. You can tell Apple isn't happy with what they're going to release because of the slew of recent controlled leaks that have come out, testing larger iPhone and iPad.
     
  14. nutjob macrumors 6502a

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    #14
    Quick survey: how many people are more than 30% underwater on their AAPL?

    LOL
     
  15. FrozenDarkness macrumors 65816

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    #15
    correction: now that expectations are so low, they're actually within Apple's realistic guidance. that's the world I live in.

    It's like if you told your parents, hey i expect to get a B+ for the quarter, I know this because of all the work and grades I've gotten so far and they still expect you to get an A and are disappointed when you come home with a B+
     
  16. HiRez macrumors 603

    HiRez

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    #16
    Probably not that many, really. Only people who bought it at the absolute highest point around $700 would be in that situation. Mine's gone down that much recently but since I bought all my AAPL well under $400 I'm still in profit territory. And as it went over $600 I think a lot of people (especially smaller investors) were starting to feel it was overpriced and didn't buy, even if they wanted to own the stock.
     
  17. uknowimright macrumors 6502a

    uknowimright

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    #17
    I'm sure they will hit their guidance, probably on the low end of it though
     
  18. nick42983 macrumors 6502

    nick42983

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    #18
    Has Apple every announced product updates on these earnings calls? A Haswell update to the MacBook Pro line wouldn't be out of the question, but maybe they will wait until they release the updated iPad in a month or two, or as part of the iPhone event. They didn't do themselves any favors by updating most of their product lines last fall and then not announcing anything new until Haswell. I think most analysts are tools, but Apple has to recognize that staying in the news cycle is an important part of their marketing strategy. Perception is reality for many consumers.
     
  19. FrozenDarkness macrumors 65816

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    #19
    depends if most consumers are stock buyers.
     
  20. ghettochris macrumors 6502a

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    #20
    which means it is either a good time to buy now, in case they bust out with surprise awesome numbers, or buy after investors are pissed at results. People love to hate apple, I bet the stock will rise up eventually, just hard to know when it's at the bottom, or when people will realize apple is awesome at making money again.
     
  21. i4m macrumors regular

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    #21
    Does this mean no iPhone 5S until December?
     
  22. JS77 macrumors regular

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  23. Plutonius macrumors 604

    Plutonius

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    #23
    Yep, Apple could have 99 things great and one thing bad and everyone will focus on the one bad thing :D.

    I think many Apple investors, short the stock before an earnings announcement and then some buy it back after it drops.
     
  24. ifij775 macrumors regular

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    #24
    I expect a collective yawn after this earnings announcement.
     
  25. FrozenDarkness macrumors 65816

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    #25
    The biggest thing to look for in this earnings statement isn't earnings, it's guidance. next quarter has to be big, it's back to school season.
     

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