Sales Executives Predict STRONG US Economy for Next 12 Months

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by darksithpro, Oct 1, 2018.

  1. darksithpro macrumors 6502a

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    #1
    But I thought liberals where saying Trump was going to wreck the US economy? What's going on? The markets should be crashing with a vast exodist of American jobs...?

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20181001005036/en/


    “Very optimistic” or “somewhat optimistic” over the next 12 months is the U.S. economic forecast from 78% of corporate sales executives participating in a recent study commissioned by the Manufacturers’ Agents National Association (MANA).
     
  2. R.Perez macrumors 6502

    R.Perez

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    #2
    Interesting. The bond market is showing signs of a recession in the next 12-24 months.
     
  3. cwosigns macrumors 68000

    cwosigns

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  4. darksithpro thread starter macrumors 6502a

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    #4
    Here's another one: https://www2.staffingindustry.com/s...-US-economy-employment-growth-for-year-47590?

    NABE SURVEY MORE OPTIMISTIC ON US ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT GROWTH FOR YEAR
    October 01 2018

    Economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics raised slightly their growth projections for the US economy in 2018, the association announced today. The median forecast calls for real GDP growth of 2.9% on an annual basis this year, up from the June 2018 estimate of 2.8%. Panelists also increased their forecast for nonfarm employment growth.

    “Despite concerns over trade policy, NABE Outlook panelists are slightly more optimistic about the US economy in 2018 than they were three months ago, especially regarding prospects for the industrial sector of the economy,” said Kevin Swift, VP at NABE and chief economist at American Chemistry Council. “Other indicators of real economic activity show light vehicle sales remaining elevated and housing continuing to improve.”
     
  5. ActionableMango macrumors G3

    ActionableMango

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    #5
    Not familiar with NABE. Historically speaking, do their previous predictions match actual results?
     
  6. darksithpro thread starter macrumors 6502a

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    #6
  7. GermanSuplex macrumors 6502a

    GermanSuplex

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    #7
    "The economy" these days, unfortunately, excludes a large portion of the middle class. Theoretically, you can have a roaring economy with a dying middle class, so long as the wealthiest continue to harvest cash from the working folk.

    Good numbers are good numbers - this was all true under Obama, but the rate at which the working class are financing the wealthy is increasing in speed and dollar amounts.

    The current model is not sustainable.
     
  8. vrDrew macrumors 65816

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    #8
    Having spent much of my career as a "Sales Executive," I can tell you that the coin of their particular realm is 100%, USDA Grade A bull ****.

    Don't get me wrong. Sales executives are neither stupid nor, by definition, evil. But they work on the premise that their customers need to have confidence that the product and/or service they have just bought is going to get used. Much of the time that is true. But sometimes it ain't.

    I put my own faith in a select group of economists, coupled with a careful purview of the Fed's Blue Book.

    But, if you are really looking for a somewhat reliable barometer in the private sector: Look at what purchasing managers have to say. I'm quite sure you can understand the difference, and how it might relate to credibility.
     
  9. darksithpro thread starter macrumors 6502a

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    #9

    Can you elaborate?
     
  10. mac_in_tosh macrumors 6502

    mac_in_tosh

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    #10
    I'm sure executives are doing well and will continue to do well under Trump. And discussions of how great the economy is usually ignore the ballooning debt, brought about in part by the GOP tax "reform." Future generations will be paying the bill for what's going on now.
     
  11. GermanSuplex macrumors 6502a

    GermanSuplex

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    #11
    More money in fewer hands = bad.

    Politics is becoming a cash sport. Wealthy donors, wealthy candidates, corporations buying influence... the whole thing is rigged. It has been for decades, but it is becoming increasingly unsustainable. A thriving middle class is what drives the economy. People making and spending their money, and paying the taxes they owe. A progressive tax system, few loopholes and driving companies to provide a living wage for Full-time workers will help.
     
  12. RootBeerMan macrumors 65816

    RootBeerMan

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    #12
    They are also ignoring the damage being done to businesses and employees by Trump's tariffs. Plenty of people have already been laid off, businesses have closed and others have suffered financial losses. Someone isn't looking at the picture closely enough. Ford lost $1 billion because of Trump. That's good?
     
  13. darksithpro thread starter macrumors 6502a

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    #13
    Hmmm....

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/26/us-...ounced-bonuses-investments-after-tax-cut.html

    These companies are paying bonuses with their tax savings

    Aflac AFL Increase 401(k) match from 50% to 100% of first 4% of employee contribution, $500 one-time contribution to every employee's 401(k) plan, offer free hospital and accident insurance products, increase U.S. investment by $250 million over 3 - 5 years.
    Alaska Air ALK $1,000 bonus for 23,000 employees and $118 million in incentive bonuses.
    American Airlines AAL $1,000 bonus to all team members (excluding officers) at "mainline and wholly owned carriers" first quarter of 2018""
    Altria Group MO One-time $3,000 bonus to 7,900 non-executive employees, donate $35 million over next three years to philanthropy
    Anthem ANTM Contribute $1,000 to the 401(k) accounts for each of its more than 58,000 associates and recent retirees.
    Apple AAPL Repatriate billions in overseas cash.
    AT&T T $1,000 bonus to more than 200,000 U.S. employees, invest additional $1 billion in the U.S. in 2018.
    Bancorp South BXS $10 million investment in employees
    Bank of America Corporation BAC One-time $1,000 bonus for U.S. employees earning up to $150,000 per year – about 145,000 teammates.
    BB&T BBT One-time $1,200 bonus for about 27,000 employees, raise minimum wage from $12/hour to $15/hour, donate $100 million to philanthropic fund.
    Boeing BA $300 million committed to charitable giving, workforce development, and workplace facility enhancements.
    Charles Schwab SCHW $1,000 bonus to around 9,000 non-executive employees last year, “anticipating the tax law change and in response to the company’s strong financial performance.”
    Chipotle CMG One-time $1,000 bonus to qualified employees, one-time stock grant to qualified employees, additional paid parental leave, additional insurance coverage for hourly managers.
    Cigna CI Raise minimum wage to $16/hour, additional $15 million in salary raises mostly for front line employees, additional $30 million to 401(k) matching, invest in Cigna Foundation
    Citizen's Financial Group CFG One-time $1,000 bonus to around 12,500 employees.
    Comcast Corporation Class A CMCSA $1,000 bonuses for more than 100,000 workers, hire thousands more employees, invest over $50 billion in infrastructure.
    Comerica CMA One-time $1,000 bonus to 4,500 non-officer employees, raise minimum wage to $15/hour.
    CVS Health CVS Increase minimum wage to $11/hour starting in April. Invest $425 million annually in wages and employee benefits.
    Discover DFS One-time $1,000 bonus to more than 15,000 non-executive employees.
    Disney DIS One-time $1,000 cash bonus for more than 125,000 employees.
    Express Scripts ESRX Bonuses of $500 to $2,000 per employee based on tenure - for $20 million total, additional $30 million to employee education fund and philanthropy.
    Exxon Mobil XOM $50 billion in new U.S. investments over the next five years.
    FedEx FDX Invest over $200 million in pay raises, “about two-thirds of which will go to hourly team members, contribute $1.5 billion to pension plan."
    Fifth Third FITB One-time $1,000 bonus to 13,500 employees, raise minimum wage to $15/hour.
    Home Depot HD One-time cash bonus up to $1,000 for U.S. hourly associates in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2017.
    Honeywell HON Increase 401(k) match to maximum 7 percent in the U.S., Canada and Puerto Rico.
    Humana HUM Increase minimum wage to $15/hour, allow employees to take part in performance-based incentive program starting this year.
    J.M. Smucker SJM One-time $1,000 bonus to nearly 5,000 employees, additional $20 million to employee pension plan, additional $1 million to charity.
    JPMorgan JPM Hire 4,000 employees and open up to 400 new Chase branches, increase minimum wage to $15 to $18/hour for 22,000 employees.
    Kansas City Southern KSU One-time $1,000 bonus to qualified, non-executive employees in the U.S. and Mexico.
    Lowe's LOW Up to $1,000 bonus to more than 260,000 employees, expand maternity and parental leave benefits
    Marriott International MAR Additional one-time contribution to retirement savings plans, structured as a $5-to-$1 company match of up to $1,000.
    Marsh & McLennan Cos MMC One time $1,000 bonus to employees earning $55,000/year or less, U.S. employees earning below $16/hour to receive a pay raise to $16/hour.
    MetLife MET Increase minimum wage to $15/hour, increase life insurance benefits, increase 401(k) matching, expand company-paid legal services
    M&T Bank MTB Increase minimum wage to $14 to $16/hour, depending on geography.
    Northern Trust NTRS Award employees one week's base salary up to $1,000.
    PNC Financial PNC $1,000 bonuses for about 47,500 employees in first quarter of 2018, raise minimum wage to $15/hour by year end.
    Regions Financial RF Increase minimum wage to $15/hour - affecting around 25% of workforce, contribute $40 million to foundation, increase capex budget by $100 million for 2018.
    Southwest LUV $1,000 cash bonus on 1/8/18 to all fulltime and part-time employees, incremental $5 million in chartible giving""
    Travelers Cos TRV $1,000 bonus to 14,000 employees with base salary less than $$75,000, increase minimum wage to $15/hour
    Tyson Foods TSN One-time $1,000 bonus to eligible full-time employees and $500 bonus to eligible part-time employees, invest in employee education and training, invest in sustainability and animal well-being.
    UPS UPS Invested $5 billion in pension plans, will invest $7 billion in Smart Logistics Network
    U.S. Bancorp USB $1,000 bonus to nearly 60,000 employees, raise minimum wage to $15/hour.
    Verizon VZ Employees other than top management to receive 50 shares of restricted stock.
    Visa V Hike 401(k) match to 10 percent from 6 percent.
    Walmart WMT One-time cash bonus of up to $1,000 to eligible employees"
    Washington Federal WAFD Employees earning <$100k will get 5% increase on top of normal merit increase, unspecified investments in training and development.
    Waste Management WM Allocate $2,000 to every North American employee not in a bonus or sales-incentive plan - around 34,000 employees.
    Wells Fargo WFC Raise minimum wage to $15/hour, target $400 million in 2018 philanthropic contributions.
    Zions ZION Increase compensation of more than 40 percent of employees, $1,000 bonuses to nearly 80% of employees this year, contribute $12 million to charitable foundation.

     
  14. GermanSuplex macrumors 6502a

    GermanSuplex

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    #14
    Hmmmmm what? What about farmers watching their crops rot because China told us to stuff it? And who’s paying for their bailout, which won’t even help them much?
     
  15. darksithpro thread starter macrumors 6502a

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    #15
    Backed by Government subsidies from tariffs, also planting corn instead of soy beans.
     
  16. RootBeerMan macrumors 65816

    RootBeerMan

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    #16
    That won't help farmers who planted soy this year and have loans bills to pay because they chose to plant soy and Trump destroyed their market.
     
  17. darksithpro thread starter macrumors 6502a

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    #17
    They might suffer a little bit short term, but not long term. Again, I have provided a link that shows the tax cuts have benefited the middle class.
     
  18. GermanSuplex macrumors 6502a

    GermanSuplex

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    #18
    No you haven’t.
     
  19. darksithpro thread starter macrumors 6502a

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    #19

    Due to Trump's tax cuts several companies have given out bonuses and increased pensions and raised wages. Why do you continue to say this doesn't help the middle class?
     
  20. GermanSuplex macrumors 6502a

    GermanSuplex

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    #20
    Because you can look at any number of sources of numbers and see how slow wage growth is. These bonuses are largely PR stunts to substitute actually raising wages.
     
  21. darksithpro thread starter macrumors 6502a

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    #21

    So, in your logic taxing companies more will increase wages to middle class workers, vs tax cuts, where companies are giving more, such as bonuses to middle class employees? This doesn't make any sense...
     
  22. RootBeerMan macrumors 65816

    RootBeerMan

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    #22
    That's not how farming works, dude. Many, if not most, small farmers take out loans to pay for planting their yearly crops and count on the normally stable market for selling their crops, to pay back that loan. Trump's trade war has ruined any chance these farmers have of paying back that loan and the banks doesn't care why they can't pay it back. People are going to be looking at losing their farms because of Trump. So, how's that good for the economy? Those tax breaks are not going to helping those family farmers. To assert that they will is being willfully ignorant.
     
  23. GermanSuplex macrumors 6502a

    GermanSuplex

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    #23
    No, not taxing them more... just not taxing them less. How many companies paid bonuses vs. just redirecting the savings to CEO and shareholder wages?

    Not saying shareholders shouldn’t be rewarded, but some companies even stated they would not be increasing worker wages.

    Hell, simply looking at the basics of the tax plan showed that it was geared to benefit the wealthy. Trickle-down does not work. It’s only called that based on theory; throwing money to the well-off is more accurate.

    Anyways, tariffs are taxes. Do you think companies eat those costs, or pass them to consumers? Do you think it’s a coincidence Donny No-Brains is now floating a Chinese election-hacking theory, claiming they are targeting farmers?
     
  24. darksithpro thread starter macrumors 6502a

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    #24
    Democrats have consistently said they want to increase taxes on Corporations.

    Some, but a lot have given back to their employees.

    Theory? I just provided you with a link, where several companies gave bonuses, retirement and wage increases to employees. It's not a theory, it actually happened.

    How many bullets do the Chinese have left? Last year they imported over 500 billion. Do you think they can last long term, when we can tariff hundreds of billions more than they can, due to a trade imbalance?
     
  25. GermanSuplex macrumors 6502a

    GermanSuplex

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    #25
    Those bonuses are not trickle-down. There’s nothing wrong with a bonus, but to point to random companies giving random $1,000 bonuses is not proof the tax cuts are anything but a gift to the 1%. How about a cost of living wage increase or a true raise? Affordable health plans? That is trickle-down.

    Some of the companies mentioned in the article you posted did some good things for their employees. They are the exception, not the norm. Some of those companies and what they offered are laughable though, and that is with an article supporting the tax cuts.

    When the top 1% control the amount of wealth that they control in this country, it creates a dynamic that sees them further gaining and concentrating even more wealth. Essentially using their money to buy more money, leaving more and more people with less and less to scrounge and fight over. They in turn use their wealth and power to influence politicians to pay less in taxes. Meanwhile, the cost of infrastructure and such remain the same, raising the burden on the middle class. Our current system is a mess, and Trump’s poor decisions on trade do nothing to ease the burden.
     

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31 October 1, 2018