Shy republicans?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by jeremy h, Nov 8, 2016.

  1. jeremy h macrumors 6502

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2008
    Location:
    UK
    #1
    I've noticed from here in the UK that the polls have got closer again. Here polling here has been inaccurate in recent elections to the point of the pollsters holding an inquiry as to what went wrong with their predictions after the previous election. From a UK perspective (which might not work in the US) if I was Hilary I'd want to be at least 5 or 10% ahead at this point.

    The reason is that we have a phenomenon called 'shy Tories'. People who are fed up (often with what they see as perceived unfairness with things such as social security and benefits policies etc) will tell anyone who asks that they are going to vote for the socially acceptable candidate or party (to be polite and avoid arguments I guess) and then actually vote the other way in the anonymity of the ballot booth.

    Is such a thing going to happen today?
     
  2. Snoopy4 macrumors 6502a

    Snoopy4

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2014
    #2
    That's the wild card today. It's not even about being shy, it's about being outright shouted down by people on the left. I've seen a few ugly discussions this election season.
     
  3. yaxomoxay macrumors 68000

    yaxomoxay

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2010
    Location:
    Texas
    #3
    It is a possibility. I personally met several people that played the undecided card on me just to reveal later that they wanted to vote DJT all along but did not want to go through the typical "xenophobic, racist, wall, etc" accusations
     
  4. zioxide macrumors 603

    zioxide

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2006
    #4
    It's gonna happen both ways as both candidates are hated by many.
     
  5. Zombie Acorn macrumors 65816

    Zombie Acorn

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2009
    Location:
    Toronto, Ontario
    #5
    Why would you say you were for a certain thing if you know the media is biased and is going to call you a bigot/racist/etc?
     
  6. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2003
    #6
    Trumpets afraid of being bullied? Bwahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
     
  7. MacAndMic macrumors 6502

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2009
    #7
    Trump had this situation throughout the primaries. He recorded more votes than any other candidate in history all the while being lower in many poles before the votes. Definitely the wild card.
     
  8. DearthnVader macrumors 6502

    DearthnVader

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2015
    Location:
    Red Springs, NC
    #8
    There's a great silent majority in the US, those that normally don't vote, it remains to be seen if the silent majority will be heard from in this election, and who they will vote for.
     
  9. WarHeadz macrumors 6502a

    WarHeadz

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2015
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #9
    Trump supporters shy? Right. They're the most vocal, obnoxious bunch of deplorables this country has ever seen.
     
  10. DearthnVader macrumors 6502

    DearthnVader

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2015
    Location:
    Red Springs, NC
    #10
    Why thank you, we love you too.
     
  11. Dagless macrumors Core

    Dagless

    Joined:
    Jan 18, 2005
    Location:
    Fighting to stay in the EU
    #11
    Something I've been saying for months - "shy" voters are a very British thing.
     
  12. AlliFlowers Contributor

    AlliFlowers

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2011
    Location:
    L.A. (Lower Alabama)
    #12
    There is no second guessing this. It seems that for every shy Trump voter, is a Republican who will vote for HRC at the top and then vote R downballot.

    Voting has begun, so we'll see sometime tonight.
     
  13. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2003
    #13
    Actually, Republicans are very worried that many will vote Trump and ignore the rest of the ballot.
     
  14. AlliFlowers Contributor

    AlliFlowers

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2011
    Location:
    L.A. (Lower Alabama)
    #14
    And I'm just worried.
     
  15. vrDrew macrumors 65816

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2010
    Location:
    Midlife, Midwest
    #15
    I'd have to second that. Spend any time amongst a bunch of white, middle-aged American men, and its only a matter of time before one or more of them starts blathering nonsense they've heard on talk radio or Fox News. You know there is something wrong with guys who, in the age of podcasts, Spotify and Bluetooth mp3 players keep their car radio tuned to the ratty end of the AM band.
     
  16. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2011
    Location:
    República Cascadia
    #16
    "Shy voters" has been propagated by polling companies since their spectacular misreading of the 2012 election. They're just covering their asses in case they botch this election, too.
     
  17. DrewDaHilp1 macrumors 6502a

    DrewDaHilp1

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2009
    Location:
    All Your Memes Are Belong to US
    #17
    Spend time with any liberal, self loathing whites, masochistic blacks, and it's only a matter of time before one or more of them start blathering nonsense they've heard from CNN, MSNBC, Huff-Po, Slate, NBC, CBS, DNC. You know there is something wrong with guys who, in the age of free information, choose to follow what their political masters tell them.
     
  18. vrDrew macrumors 65816

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2010
    Location:
    Midlife, Midwest
    #18
    Actually, no. More often than not, we usually end up chatting about a fascinating - and usually totally non-political - story we heard on NPR.

    When you live in a world constructed out of provable facts, as opposed to fantasy, you don't need to spend a lot of time convincing each other of one's fealty to the cause.
     
  19. BigMcGuire Contributor

    BigMcGuire

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2012
    Location:
    California
    #19
    Shy? Maybe... I think I'm being smarter by being silent. Because every time I mention I'm a Republican I get called a racist, intolerant, bigoted, and a whole lot of other stuff. Then when I mention my wife is latina and from South America they go nuts and can't believe it - tho the calling me racist doesn't stop. Funny that race gets shoved into my face just cuz I say I'm a Republican when I have no problem with race or skin color. I guess I'm smart for keeping my mouth shut so I don't invite hostility towards my wife and I?

    I call all the people wearing Trump hats/shirts gutsy where I live because wowie, they face some serious hostility (I've witnessed it). Write a Trump 2016 in chalk on the ground at UCR (university) and you'll have people screaming at it, stomping on it, throwing **** at it, trying to rub it out while a Hillary sign sits lonely in the distance (I've seen this in person).

    Don't know if I'd call it shy. And I've met a few Democrats who have had very civil conversations with me and I really respect them because of that (I find talking with people who do not hold my opinions to be far more interesting than talking to people who believe the same thing I do) but I can't say they're anywhere near the majority.
     
  20. APlotdevice macrumors 68040

    APlotdevice

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2011
    #20
    Because Trump supporters certainly aren't echoing their candidates' personal attacks and conspiracy theories...
     
  21. DrewDaHilp1, Nov 8, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2016

    DrewDaHilp1 macrumors 6502a

    DrewDaHilp1

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2009
    Location:
    All Your Memes Are Belong to US
    #21
    Democrats perfected putting people on the defensive. Republicans have failed to move past defending accusations and getting policy/talking points to those who might change camps. Soon all the special interest cards are going to be bankrupt and no one will accept that as an argument.
     
  22. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2003
    #22
    I agree. They are vegan-like in wanting to tell you about Trump.
     
  23. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2009
    #23
    It is entirely possible that there are shy votes for both candidates. Where it all shakes out, nobody really knows which I think is why everyone is on edge. Sure those are some that think their candidate has it in the bag, but that is being overconfident. It ain't over until it's over and it's all about who comes out and who doesn't.

    I have made peace with whatever happens. If Trump wins I won't be happy, but at the same time I will enjoy seeing him either succeed or fail. From a distance though...I can only tolerate him in very small doses now so the TV could very well be turned off for four years. :D
     
  24. jeremy h thread starter macrumors 6502

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2008
    Location:
    UK
    #24
    Couldn't agree more. I'm not making any kind of point re nice or nasty or any kind of value judgement about a section of people in the US. Also the word shy isn't pejorative in this case - its an attempt to 'label' an effect or behaviour I guess. That of people 'gaming' the pollsters if you will for, from their perspective, legitimate reasons.

    What's been interesting in the UK recently is just how things have been misjudged by both the mainstream media and the political class. One journalist here who has recently called things pretty much right is a guy called John Harris who writes (well shoots vox pop video interviews for the Guardian). He simply took his camera to the the overlooked bits of the UK (i.e. most of it) and then just quietly asked people what they think and then very importantly ( and this seems to be increasingly unusual these days) gave them the space to articulate what are often quite complicated and nuanced views. As far as I remember he called the EU referendum right. While everyone was amplifying noise from London based studios he was trying to read the signal if you will. It will be really fascinating to find out how the US polling has done.
     
  25. Pootmatoot macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2014
    #25
    If you look at the Florida exit polling - with 28% of Republican early voters flipping Clinton, I think there could be a "shy Tory" effect - but with female Republicans voting Clinton.
     

Share This Page