So, Is Hillary finished?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by OscarTheGrouch, May 7, 2008.

  1. OscarTheGrouch macrumors 6502

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    #1
    Is she done for all intents and purposes? Should she hang on till the bitter end, or bow out gracefully?

    I am of the unfortunate opinion that she is going to make the poor decision to get really nasty now snd cut throat.
     
  2. psychofreak Retired

    psychofreak

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    #2
    So you don't think she's already become nasty ?
     
  3. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #3
    If she gave a crap about anyone other than herself, she would have dropped out by now. She's become an egomaniacal monster at this point.
     
  4. ucfgrad93 macrumors P6

    ucfgrad93

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    #4
    I don't see her quitting until the last primaries are over on June 3rd. Even then, I sort of expect her to continue the fight until the convention.
     
  5. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #5
    Of course she will. She'll try every dirty trick she can. Reality isn't something she handles well.
     
  6. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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    #6
    Especially at 3am...
     
  7. Much Ado macrumors 68000

    Much Ado

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    #7
    Or when getting off planes in Eastern Europe, for that matter.
     
  8. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #8
    She was finished back in February after Obama won 12 states in a row.
     
  9. Cleverboy macrumors 65816

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    To be honest, I was thinking it was screwed up for people to call for her to quit, considering more states were yet still to vote. --But, at this point, it's clear that NEITHER Obama nor Clinton will win without super delegates. So, more voting won't make much of a difference... except a psychological and media frenzy that will cause more Democratic bruising and in-fighting.

    I don't think Obama will have many wins in the coming contests (Clinton will beat him 2 to 1 if it can be predicted), although they don't have many delegates up for grabs. This isn't a good note to end on though, so he's got to step it up. --Only, the polls show him down by large margins in many of these states.

    http://www.pollster.com/

    • Indiana (5/6) latest: Zogby - C:43, O:45, U:7 (5/04-5/08) OBAMA by 2% (EXACT OPPOSITE of what HAPPENED)
    • North Carolina (5/6) latest: Zogby. - C:37, O:51, U:8 (5/04-5/08) OBAMA by 14%
    • West Virginia (5/13) latest: Rasmussen - C:56, O:27, U:17 (5/04) CLINTON by 29%
    • Kentucky (5/20) latest: Rasmussen - C:56, O:31, U:13 (5/05) CLINTON by 25%
    • Oregon (5/20) latest: Rasmussen - C:39, O:51, U:10 (5/01) OBAMA by 12%
    • Puerto Rico (6/1) latest: R&R - C:50, O:37, U:13 (3/31-4/05) CLINTON by 13%
    • Montana (6/3) latest: Mason-Dixon - C:29, O:17, U:17 (12/17/07-12/19/07) CLINTON by 12%
    • South Dakota (6/3) latest: Zogby - C:34, O:46, U:10 (3/24-04/03) OBAMA by 12%

    So, the dates and splits will be:
    • May 6th - (2 contests) OBAMA/CLINTON split, next contest 1 week
      (MEDIA READ: "Is it over for Clinton?")
    • May 13th - (1 contest) CLINTON win, next contest 1 week
      (MEDIA READ: "Clinton STRONG win gives campaign life,
      Obama candidacy still exhibits concerns over not getting
      blue-collar Democrats")
    • May 20th - (2 contests) OBAMA/CLINTON split, next contest 1 week, 2 days
      (MEDIA READ: "Clinton still fighting, has another strong
      win and vows to take contest to convention,
      Obama candidacy still exhibits concerns over not getting blue-collar Democrats")
    • June 1st - (1 contest) CLINTON win, next contest 2 days
      (MEDIA READ: "Clinton still strong with the Latino vote, Obama still
      struggling to reach out to Clinton's base. Hard times ahead.")
    • June 3rd - (2 contests) OBAMA/CLINTON split, contests over
      (MEDIA READ: "Why can't Obama close the deal? Still splitting voters with Clinton.")
    Clinton will be the only one with nights where she is the ONLY winner, unless Obama has changed or will change his level of support according to the last recorded polls. If Obama can get out the vote and win Puerto Rico and Montana, it would make for a tremendous and decisive nomination push, at which point, the super delegates would all pile over. If not, I suspect it will make things much more murky when the super delegates finally choose.

    ~ CB
     
  10. Abstract macrumors Penryn

    Abstract

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    #10
    I'm going to say it now: Clinton will win. She'll use her husband and her rolodexes, call in every favour imaginable, and get it done. It'll probably be completely unfair for Obama, but if this is decided by the super-delegates, Obama will lose somehow. I just think that she's fighting because she knows that if this goes all the way to the end, she'll get it.
     
  11. ucfgrad93 macrumors P6

    ucfgrad93

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    #11
    And how do you think African-Americans will react to that? It would result in a crushing defeat in November for Hillary and Democrats in general.
     
  12. kuebby macrumors 68000

    kuebby

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    #12
    She's done. Every day it becomes mathematically harder for her to win. She'd have to win nearly 70% of the delegates that are left, and that assumes that no more superdelegates jump ship.

    And for anyone who's interested, Maureen Dowd's column about Hillary in the NY Times today was very good.
     
  13. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #13

    Sorry, but you can't pick and choose one outlier poll just because it proves your point. All the other polls had her ahead by a pretty good margin, and she only ended up winning by less than 2%. Zogby has been horribly inaccurate this election cycle.
     
  14. Cleverboy macrumors 65816

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    Hm? My only point is about future contests. I only put the recent contest in there as a reference point. Zogby is hardly on "outlier" in any case. You'll notice I went with Zogby on North Carolina, considering they're much more reputable and the poll was much more indicative of what happened than the "Insider Advantage" poll which had Obama and Clinton at 47% to 43% respectively (4 points).

    Most EVERYONE agreed that Indiana has been a tie for a while leading up to the primary. Don't forget... Obama's own campaign projected Indiana as a "win" by a few percentage points a while back (they've been stunning accurate down to the precint, with their projections). Personally, I feel that "Operation Chaos" (Limbaugh) more than explains why the 2 point spread didn't go the other way.

    Obama has some work ahead of him though, like I said. He needs to sell the entire party on the strength of his candidacy. He's going to need to end STRONG, and the "why can't Obama close the deal" question needs to be quelled by the voters in the most recent contests, and not simply the super delegates. If it isn't... its going to be a long... chilly summer.

    ~ CB
     
  15. Mackan macrumors 65816

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    Well, why can't Clinton close the deal? Why does Obama have anything to prove? He is leading in pledged delegates, won states, and popular vote. It is just natural that the race is going to be close with two interesting candidates like Obama and Clinton. The best is to for Clinton to drop out when the only choice she has left is to plead to superdelegates to pick her against all odds.
     
  16. miloblithe macrumors 68020

    miloblithe

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    Cleverboy. I don't get it. Say Clinton wins 4 of the remaining 6 contests (which I don't think she will anyway; that Montana poll sounds unlikely), so what? She's still only won 17 states to Obama's 31, with 2 split decisions. In addition, Obama will have won DC, Guam, and Democrats abroad to Clinton's win in Puerto Rico. On Monday, she trailed Obama 143 delegates, according to CNN. Currently she's 159 behind according to the same sources. The supers, of course, can change their minds too, so in pledged delegates, she's 169 behind. She trails in votes cast by about 700,000 votes.

    There is no possible way she can catch Obama on any numerical measure unless she is assigned ALL 128 Michigan delegates and Obama gets 0. Barring that, she can ONLY be elected if the superdelegates put her on top despite the outcomes of the primaries and caucuses. The remaining primaries do not change anything. Those are the only two possible ways she wins.
     
  17. DZ/015 macrumors 6502a

    DZ/015

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    #17
    I'm sort of in the same boat as Abstract on this. I refuse to count out a Clinton until everything is over and a nominee is named.

    There have been many rumblings among pundits that she will stay in just to damage Obama's chances, allowing McCain to more easily win. Why, to allow her to run again in four years. Ambition can be an ugly thing.
     
  18. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #18
    It's not that he can't close out the deal. It's just there are some states that Obama won't win, just like there are some states Clinton won't win. And if she were ahead, people would be wondering why she can't close it out in NC or OR or SD.

    Not every state has to go for the person ahead for the deal to be closed. He's still ahead in every other metric imaginable, especially in delegates which is all that really matters.
     
  19. ucfgrad93 macrumors P6

    ucfgrad93

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  20. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #20
    Probably in the same state as Hillary....the state of denial :D
     
  21. walangij macrumors 6502

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    #21
    :D lol

    Clinton's campaign is in need of the money still. I can see Obama narrowing the gap in all the states Clinton has a lead in as he has done already. I can not see Clinton winning any of those states by double digits, it's not far fetched that Obama may take one or two from her. Few Supers have jumped the Clinton ship, we''ll see what happens. I think she'll continue to deny and fight even if enough of them decide to make Obama the nominee before June 3rd.
     
  22. Cleverboy macrumors 65816

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    Meh. It's not much to just take the campaign at its word.
    This implies that she may do what others have suggested, and SHARPLY move her criticisms to McCain, and avoid most talk about Obama. If she doesn't, it will probably be hard to justify. Likewise, Obama should stop brow-beating her too. Otherwise, it will be tit-for-tat.

    She mostly needs to STOP her talk about "ELITE" anything, and "who's ready".

    I think that's what I said at the beginning of my post. The ONLY question now... is how Obama will fair in the media between now and then. That will largely be reflective of the contests, regardless of how little affect they will have on the results. --It's possible the media might reflect how irrelevant the contests are... but I wouldn't count on it, would you?

    She's behind. She CAN'T close the deal. Obama could have put her away with an extra win here or there, and couldn't do it. That's just how the media sees it. It's like Obama is being criticized for everyone's battle fatigue. Might not be fair, but there you have it.

    ~ CB
     
  23. Cleverboy macrumors 65816

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    I hope Florida and Michigan can be seated now. After the nominee is chosen, I don't think they'll make a difference, and its better to seat them. --Just not to discuss seating them until after the nomination has been decided.

    ~ CB
     
  24. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #24
    I've advocated this for nearly a month now, maybe even more. The Democrats could have used the nomination process to avoid attacks and focus on the issues, showing how their plans are "better" than the GOP's and use their time in the headlines to try and influence the general election to be about the issues. As long as they had the headlines and weren't tearing each other apart, they could keep McCain in the background unless he did something either really spectacular or really stupid (the latter being more likely, how often do you hear of politicians doing really good things?).

    Well part of how he fares in the media will depend on what gets dug up/rehashed by the opposition. If Clinton (and Obama) stop attacking each other, I think anything the GOP throws at Obama they can turn right back on McCain. Instead of trying to tear one another apart they can use this opportunity to help the Dems in November, of course they could have been doing this since March when the math was already next to impossible for Clinton, but better late than never. Of course I'll believe it when I see it.
     
  25. miloblithe macrumors 68020

    miloblithe

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    #25
    Fair enough. No. I wouldn't count on it.

    I like what some people are suggesting here. Used the last month of the campaign as a Democrat love fest and strongly use all the media attention to criticize McCain. If Clinton can play strong and mend fences, she could still earn herself the Vice Presidency. It's either that or Senate Majority Leader as her highest hope at this point.
     

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