Stock market's latest false equivalency

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Chew Toy McCoy, Apr 29, 2017.

  1. Chew Toy McCoy macrumors regular

    Chew Toy McCoy

    May 13, 2016
    Congratulations Trump. Through promising but achieving none of your objectives, correct me if I am wrong, the Dow has seen it's biggest rally in a president's first 100 days in a postwar era. Their words, not mine. I can't remember a time when we had a war behind us. This is despite the weakest economic growth in 3 years. So congratulations Trump for the stock market marginalizing that fact as well.
  2. Huntn macrumors P6


    May 5, 2008
    The Misty Mountains
    Maybe it's happy he failed? Naw. What I really think that the forces vested in the stock market view this man as an agent of mega handouts to big business so the prospect of big profits at least short term is up, full steam ahead, at least until sailing over fiscal/financial Niagra Reality Falls, with the confidence they'll be savvy enough to adjust when they see the drop coming.
  3. Dmunjal macrumors 65816

    Jun 20, 2010
    It's actually easy to explain. The stock market is a forward leading indicator. Investors believe that the economy will improve with lower taxes and easing regulations.

    GDP is a backward indicator and tells the story of the economic and fiscal policy we've had over the past few years.

    Remember, Obama presided over some of the worst GDP growth in Presidential history.

    I don't necessarily agree with it but that's what's really going on.
  4. Desertrat macrumors newbie

    Jul 4, 2003
    Terlingua, Texas
    The rally has come about due to expectations of continued low interest rates plus the view that the US market is safer than foreign markets. Trump, for all his flaws, is seen as a stabilizing force for the stock market.

    For now, anyway. My view is that the market is oversold and a serious retraction is overdue.
  5. appleisking macrumors 6502a

    May 24, 2013
    I disagree. I don't anticipate a correction of any more than 2-3 percent even if one is due
  6. Rigby macrumors 601

    Aug 5, 2008
    San Jose, CA
    Stock prices are not driven by the economy in general, but the by expectations of profits. This is not the same thing. Sometimes investors are extremely short sighted (which is why prices keep going up during bubbles even though everyone knows it's going to crash).

    I believe the rally in the last quarter primarily reflects expectations that regulations would be loosened, particularly for Wallstreet banks (which saw some of the biggest stock price gains).
    He also had one of the worst economic crises on his hands when he came into office.
  7. Dmunjal macrumors 65816

    Jun 20, 2010
    That would explain why GDP numbers under Bush would be bad (crisis happened in 2008 and was over by March 2009, two months into Obama's presidency) but Obama presided over one of the longest expansions in history with a booming stock market yet GDP growth was abysmal.
  8. BoneDaddy Suspended


    Jan 8, 2015
    "False equivalency"... Everything is a "false equivalency" when you people don't like something.

    Dmunjal explained it just fine. Take it as a lesson learned and don't be so fast as to throw around newly learned terms, from the liberal news, before you first learn about the subject you think is an easy topic to pick at.

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