Stock market's latest false equivalency

Chew Toy McCoy

macrumors regular
Original poster
May 13, 2016
202
2,790
Congratulations Trump. Through promising but achieving none of your objectives, correct me if I am wrong, the Dow has seen it's biggest rally in a president's first 100 days in a postwar era. Their words, not mine. I can't remember a time when we had a war behind us. This is despite the weakest economic growth in 3 years. So congratulations Trump for the stock market marginalizing that fact as well.
 
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Huntn

macrumors demi-god
May 5, 2008
17,008
16,453
The Misty Mountains
Maybe it's happy he failed? Naw. What I really think that the forces vested in the stock market view this man as an agent of mega handouts to big business so the prospect of big profits at least short term is up, full steam ahead, at least until sailing over fiscal/financial Niagra Reality Falls, with the confidence they'll be savvy enough to adjust when they see the drop coming.
 

Dmunjal

macrumors 65816
Jun 20, 2010
1,488
1,201
Congratulations Trump. Through promising but achieving none of your objectives, correct me if I am wrong, the Dow has seen it's biggest rally in a president's first 100 days in a postwar era. Their words, not mine. I can't remember a time when we had a war behind us. This is despite the weakest economic growth in 3 years. So congratulations Trump for the stock market marginalizing that fact as well.
It's actually easy to explain. The stock market is a forward leading indicator. Investors believe that the economy will improve with lower taxes and easing regulations.

GDP is a backward indicator and tells the story of the economic and fiscal policy we've had over the past few years.

Remember, Obama presided over some of the worst GDP growth in Presidential history.

https://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/29/ranking-the-presidents-by-g-d-p/?_r=0

I don't necessarily agree with it but that's what's really going on.
 

Desertrat

macrumors newbie
Jul 4, 2003
2
706
Terlingua, Texas
The rally has come about due to expectations of continued low interest rates plus the view that the US market is safer than foreign markets. Trump, for all his flaws, is seen as a stabilizing force for the stock market.

For now, anyway. My view is that the market is oversold and a serious retraction is overdue.
 

appleisking

macrumors 6502a
May 24, 2013
658
2,033
The rally has come about due to expectations of continued low interest rates plus the view that the US market is safer than foreign markets. Trump, for all his flaws, is seen as a stabilizing force for the stock market.

For now, anyway. My view is that the market is oversold and a serious retraction is overdue.
I disagree. I don't anticipate a correction of any more than 2-3 percent even if one is due
 

Rigby

macrumors 601
Aug 5, 2008
4,737
3,684
San Jose, CA
It's actually easy to explain. The stock market is a forward leading indicator. Investors believe that the economy will improve with lower taxes and easing regulations.
Stock prices are not driven by the economy in general, but the by expectations of profits. This is not the same thing. Sometimes investors are extremely short sighted (which is why prices keep going up during bubbles even though everyone knows it's going to crash).

I believe the rally in the last quarter primarily reflects expectations that regulations would be loosened, particularly for Wallstreet banks (which saw some of the biggest stock price gains).
Remember, Obama presided over some of the worst GDP growth in Presidential history.
He also had one of the worst economic crises on his hands when he came into office.
 

Dmunjal

macrumors 65816
Jun 20, 2010
1,488
1,201
Stock prices are not driven by the economy in general, but the by expectations of profits. This is not the same thing. Sometimes investors are extremely short sighted (which is why prices keep going up during bubbles even though everyone knows it's going to crash).

I believe the rally in the last quarter primarily reflects expectations that regulations would be loosened, particularly for Wallstreet banks (which saw some of the biggest stock price gains).
He also had one of the worst economic crises on his hands when he came into office.
That would explain why GDP numbers under Bush would be bad (crisis happened in 2008 and was over by March 2009, two months into Obama's presidency) but Obama presided over one of the longest expansions in history with a booming stock market yet GDP growth was abysmal.
 

BoneDaddy

Suspended
Jan 8, 2015
527
939
Texas
"False equivalency"... Everything is a "false equivalency" when you people don't like something.

Dmunjal explained it just fine. Take it as a lesson learned and don't be so fast as to throw around newly learned terms, from the liberal news, before you first learn about the subject you think is an easy topic to pick at.