The 270 Project: Try To Predict Who Will Win The US Presidential Election

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by bradl, Jun 30, 2016.

  1. bradl macrumors 68040

    bradl

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2008
    #1
    Instead of having posts with unsubstantiated, unsourced numbers from pollsters that are skewed in the methods they conduct their polls, let's deal with what we know and one of the things that will be used for this US POTUS election: demographics.

    With that, The 270 Project has been created. I'll let NPR fill everyone in:

    http://www.npr.org/2016/06/30/483687093/the-270-project-try-to-predict-who-will-win-the-election

    The first graphic on their site are the actual sliders, which you can cater to how one may vote via demographics. Have a look and see who may do what and where by that and adjust your sliders to compensate. But I find it rather interesting that some of the comments made against certain demographic groups may come home to roost in the next 4 months.

    BL.
     
  2. WarHeadz macrumors 6502a

    WarHeadz

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2015
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #2
    ^This part is my favorite. :D

    He's gonna lose New York bigly.
     
  3. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2003
    #3
    Coincidentally, this just popped up on my Twitter feed.

    NEW YORK

    President:

    Clinton (D) 54%

    Trump (R) 31%

    (Siena College Poll, RV, 6/22-28)
     
  4. WarHeadz macrumors 6502a

    WarHeadz

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2015
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #4
    23 points eh? Is that within the margin of error? :D
     
  5. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2009
    #5
    His comments about winning NY have been my favorite too. On what basis does he make this claim? Hillary had more votes in that state's primary than ALL of the Republican candidates COMBINED.

    Even his own children couldn't make the effort to vote for him back then. :p
     
  6. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2011
    Location:
    República Cascadia
    #6
    Whatever happened to Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight? Ever since he confidently predicted for months that there was no way Trump could win the nomination, he's been conspicuously silent.
     
  7. vrDrew macrumors 65816

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2010
    Location:
    Midlife, Midwest
    #7
    He still runs a very successful site.

    I think Silver, as well as a lot of other prognosticators, made a few assumptions about Trump early in his campaign. They acknowledged Trump's lead in the polls among Republican voters, but Silver (and most other people) assumed that Trump would go the way of Herman Cain; Michelle Bachman; Rick Santorum; and numerous other "outsider" candidates who had, at one point, led the pollsin recent Republican Presidential history.

    For a variety of reasons that didn't happen. Trump's poll numbers weren't wrong back in August, 2015. The people making predictions about the upcoming process figured incorrectly. Like the incredible weakness of the two "mainstream" candidates (Bush and Rubio); and the manner in which the establishment candidates essentially engaged in a circular firing squad.

    Trump's polling numbers among Republicans never reached very high levels. I struggle to think of a single state where he garnered more than 50% of the vote.

    The process concerning the General Election is, relatively speaking, much simpler. The race is most likely going to be a two-way one, with minor party candidates taking a percent or two of the total. And Trump would need to significantly improve his standings in the polls in a number of key states to have a realistic chance of defeating Hillary Clinton. He simply hasn't shown much capacity to move his polling numbers which have, since he became the presumptive nominee - actually moved backwards.

    I will note, however, that Silver doesn't give Trump a zero chance of becoming President. At this stage he gives him about a 20% shot. Which should alarm the hell out of any sane American. I'd sure as hell be worried if I found I had a disease that had a 20% chance of killing me.
     
  8. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2011
    Location:
    República Cascadia
    #8
    Good one.
     
  9. dsnort macrumors 68000

    dsnort

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2006
    Location:
    In persona non grata
    #9
    Predicting this election is easy. The lying, self serving, jack ass con artist is going to be elected. ( Really, there's no way to miss!)
     
  10. blackfox macrumors 65816

    blackfox

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2003
    Location:
    PDX
    #10
    A bloody disappointment. I win (or lose, depending)

    *edit* dsnort beat me to the sentiment....
     
  11. DearthnVader macrumors regular

    DearthnVader

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2015
    Location:
    Red Springs, NC
    #11
    Pretty interesting, if you read it, and play with it, you'll quickly understand that Trump is banking on the White male vote, with a higher turnout than 2012. It's really his only shot of winning.
     
  12. bent christian Suspended

    bent christian

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2015
    #12
    "Overall, when asked "Where was Obama born, as far as you know?" 80% of adults said they believe Obama was born in the United States. The other 20% said that he was born outside the country, including 9% who believe there is solid evidence of that and 11% who say it is just their suspicion.
    Misperceptions about Obama's religious beliefs are more common than those about his birth, particularly among Republicans. Overall, 29% of Americans say they think the President is a Muslim, including 43% of Republicans."
    http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/13/politics/barack-obama-religion-christian-misperceptions/

    A coincidence? I don't think so.
    The FiveThirtyEight forecasting is still pretty much saying that, though in not quite as many words. This election is a pretty easy call.
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
     
  13. blackfox macrumors 65816

    blackfox

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2003
    Location:
    PDX
    #13

Share This Page