THE DAY OF PREDICTION THREAD

themadchemist

macrumors 68030
Original poster
Jan 31, 2003
2,820
0
Chi Town
It's close enough that you can give us an electoral vote count. Also, state by state if you like. Here I go: Kerry 272 Bush 266

Kerry
California
Connecticut
Delaware
DC
Hawaii
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

Bush
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
New Mexico
North Carolina
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virginia
West Virginia
Wyoming
 

Chaszmyr

macrumors 601
Aug 9, 2002
4,265
76
MadChemist, you're giving Florida to Bush, but still giving the election to Kerry? This is going to be interesting to see!
 

yg17

macrumors G5
Aug 1, 2004
14,888
2,480
St. Louis, MO
Chaszmyr said:
MadChemist, you're giving Florida to Bush, but still giving the election to Kerry? This is going to be interesting to see!
Well, hopefully Kerry can pick up enough EVs in other states that it doesn't matter what sort of mess takes place in Floriduh :)
 

wordmunger

macrumors 603
Sep 3, 2003
5,125
2
North Carolina
I'm not going to do every state (or add up my electoral count), but here's a good guess at some of the swing states:

Bush:
Florida
Ohio

Kerry:
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
New Mexico
Hawaii


And my big upset:
Kerry will also win North Carolina and Virginia!
 

Sayhey

macrumors 68000
May 22, 2003
1,690
2
San Francisco
Kerry will win 316-222 with all of the 2000 Gore states plus New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada. Kerry wins the popular vote 52%-47%.
 

Thomas Veil

macrumors 68020
Feb 14, 2004
2,435
5,496
OBJECTIVE reality
wordmunger said:
I'm not going to do every state (or add up my electoral count), but here's a good guess at some of the swing states:

Bush:
Florida
Ohio
That wouldn't be good. There's a large body of thought that Kerry must win at least one of those two states in order to win the election.
 

MattG

macrumors 68040
May 27, 2003
3,760
212
Asheville, NC
Sayhey said:
Kerry will win 316-222 with all of the 2000 Gore states plus New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada. Kerry wins the popular vote 52%-47%.
That's quite a predicition, but I hope you're right :)

As a Floridian who has witnessed firsthand the sleazy measures the Republicans have taken to make sure Bush wins, I'm having trouble keeping positive about Kerry winning Florida. I can't help but think that Jeb and his goons will do something to rig it. I guess I can only hope that there's just an overwhelming amount of support from new voters, enough for Kerry to win by a landslide and not require a recount.

I'm going to guess that Kerry will win Ohio and Pennsylvania, but not Florida.
 

wordmunger

macrumors 603
Sep 3, 2003
5,125
2
North Carolina
Thomas Veil said:
That wouldn't be good. There's a large body of thought that Kerry must win at least one of those two states in order to win the election.
Well, I found the PBS interactive map thingy and tried my strategy out, and it still has Kerry winning. Honestly, I don't think it'll be that close, but for fun in the prediction I thought I'd throw Bush a couple bones. The hanky-panky in both Florida and Ohio do make me think Bush could pull those states out, but I think there may be surprises in store for him in places like Nevada, Arizona, West Virginia, and Missouri, to name a few.
 

Chaszmyr

macrumors 601
Aug 9, 2002
4,265
76
Interesting that most people now seem to have Kerry winning the electoral vote (sometimes by almost 100), considering Kerry hasn't really been ahead in the polls for the last couple of weeks. Either way, I voted for Kerry!
 

SlowX

macrumors regular
May 16, 2001
101
31
Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN
Chaszmyr said:
Interesting that most people now seem to have Kerry winning the electoral vote (sometimes by almost 100), considering Kerry hasn't really been ahead in the polls for the last couple of weeks. Either way, I voted for Kerry!
I think this is saying that the polls don't accurately reflect how people are actually voting.

I mean, just a quick glance here reveals more Kerry than Bush fans... were any of US polled?
 

wordmunger

macrumors 603
Sep 3, 2003
5,125
2
North Carolina
SlowX said:
I think this is saying that the polls don't accurately reflect how people are actually voting.

I mean, just a quick glance here reveals more Kerry than Bush fans... were any of US polled?
Actually, I have been polled. And I voted for Kerry. It's a well known fact that Windows users are more conservative politically than Mac users. And fuggadabout those libertarian-wacko Linux users.
 

SlowX

macrumors regular
May 16, 2001
101
31
Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN
wordmunger said:
Actually, I have been polled. And I voted for Kerry. It's a well known fact that Windows users are more conservative politically than Mac users. And fuggadabout those libertarian-wacko Linux users.
And don't even get me started on those Atari users writing in "Nixon"!
heh
 

atszyman

macrumors 68020
Sep 16, 2003
2,442
1
The Dallas 'burbs
Kerry will take New Mexico or Arkansas. Bush will take Wisconsin or New Hampshire.

Overall I am hoping for a Kerry win. Preferably something in the neighborhood of 299 to 239 so that it is at least decisive.

My out there prediction:
McCain wins.

269/269 tie.

Electors start strategizing since top 3 Electoral vote getters go to the house. Since House decides via states and Republcans have the majority all Democratic Electors go for a moderate Republican (McCain) to get Bush out. By abandoning Kerry completely they keep the Republicans from blocking McCain by pulling in a radical like Kucinich or Sharpton. McCain would stand a better chance in the House by pulling some Republican states and with the Democrats getting a majority of the states.
 

Lyle

macrumors 68000
Jun 11, 2003
1,874
0
Madison, Alabama
SlowX said:
I think this is saying that the polls don't accurately reflect how people are actually voting.

I mean, just a quick glance here reveals more Kerry than Bush fans... were any of US polled?
I have absolutely no idea how close the polls are to reality, but I don't think that an overwhelming support for Kerry in this particular forum is a reliable indicator of overwhelming support for Kerry throughout the nation (any more so than overwhelming support for Bush in the "Rich Old Racist Homophobes" Club would indicate nationwide support for the President).
 

jadam

macrumors 6502a
Jan 23, 2002
699
1
I think New Jersey, Ohio, Hawaii, and Pennslyvania will all go Bush.
 

Don't panic

macrumors 603
Jan 30, 2004
5,551
695
having a drink at Milliways
atszyman said:
My out there prediction:
McCain wins.

269/269 tie.

Electors start strategizing since top 3 Electoral vote getters go to the house. Since House decides via states and Republcans have the majority all Democratic Electors go for a moderate Republican (McCain) to get Bush out. By abandoning Kerry completely they keep the Republicans from blocking McCain by pulling in a radical like Kucinich or Sharpton. McCain would stand a better chance in the House by pulling some Republican states and with the Democrats getting a majority of the states.
:confused: you lost me half way through.

my prediction Kerry 269, Bush 222

Florida and Ohio are too close and too caught up with lawsuites to be counted immediately.
Eventually the courts assign both of them to GW against all evidence pointing to a clear kerry win.

this brings the total to 269-269, to be decided by house.

However, one of the great electors from florida (privvy to the scams that prevented a dem's win there) has a crisis of conscience and refuses to vote for GW, de facto assigning the white house to Kerry, 269-268.

here's the breakout:
 

Attachments

mactastic

macrumors 68040
Apr 24, 2003
3,647
661
Colly-fornia
Slate has the latest VNS numbers up, and it looks good for Kerry at this point.

(Note: Numbers to be taken with a grain of salt please.)

Florida
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Ohio
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Pennsylvania
Kerry 54
Bush 45

Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 46

Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 47

Minnesota
Kerry 58
Bush 40

Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 50

New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48

North Carolina
Kerry 49
Bush 51

Colorado
Kerry 46
Bush 53
 

jadam

macrumors 6502a
Jan 23, 2002
699
1
Don't panic said:
:confused: you lost me half way through.

my prediction Kerry 269, Bush 222

Florida and Ohio are too close and too caught up with lawsuites to be counted immediately.
Eventually the courts assign both of them to GW against all evidence pointing to a clear kerry win.

this brings the total to 269-269, to be decided by house.

However, one of the great electors from florida (privvy to the scams that prevented a dem's win there) has a crisis of conscience and refuses to vote for GW, de facto assigning the white house to Kerry, 269-268.

here's the breakout:

too bad he needs 270 votes to win :eek:
 

jefhatfield

Retired
Jul 9, 2000
8,803
0
themadchemist said:
It's close enough that you can give us an electoral vote count. Also, state by state if you like. Here I go: Kerry 272 Bush 266

Kerry
California
Connecticut
Delaware
DC
Hawaii
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

Bush
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
New Mexico
North Carolina
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virginia
West Virginia
Wyoming
that looks pretty accurate from what i have researched and seen on tv, but i think kerry will barely take iowa

bush can take new jersey, some say, but i don't think so...if he does though, i will be shocked and blame bruce springsteen ;)
 

jefhatfield

Retired
Jul 9, 2000
8,803
0
wordmunger said:
I'm not going to do every state (or add up my electoral count), but here's a good guess at some of the swing states:

Bush:
Florida
Ohio

Kerry:
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
New Mexico
Hawaii


And my big upset:
Kerry will also win North Carolina and Virginia!
virginia is always a possibility for the democrats...but north carolina? no way...that state goes to bush...unfortunately