The effects of pulling out of the TPP

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by jpietrzak8, Aug 7, 2017.

  1. jpietrzak8 macrumors 65816

    jpietrzak8

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    One of Donald Trump's signature successes so far in his term in office was to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. This was a major international agreement between 12 countries (including the US) to lower trade barriers. And he has replaced this deal with? Jack and Squat.

    It turns out, other nations have not been sitting on their hands. Many new trade agreements have been made in the absence of TPP, none of them involving the US. Politico has put together an in-depth article on how American agriculture is now faring. Here's a few tidbits from it:

    A POLITICO analysis found that the 11 other TPP countries are now involved in a whopping 27 separate trade negotiations with each other, other major trading powers in the region like China and massive blocs like the EU. Those efforts range from exploratory conversations to deals already signed and awaiting ratification. Seven of the most significant deals for U.S. farmers were either launched or concluded in the five months since the United States withdrew from the TPP.
    ...
    On July 6, the EU, which already exports as much pork to Japan as the United States does, announced political agreement on a new deal that would give European pork farmers an advantage of up to $2 per pound over U.S. exporters under certain circumstances — a move which, if unchecked, is all but certain to create a widening gap between EU exports and those from the United States.

    European wine producers, who sold more than $1 billion to Japan between 2014 and 2016, would also see a 15 percent tariff on exports to Japan disappear while U.S. exporters would continue to face that duty at the border. For other products, the deal essentially mirrors the rates negotiated under the TPP, which the United States has surrendered, giving the EU a clear advantage over U.S. farmers.

    The EU’s deal is all the more noteworthy because American farmers were relying on the TPP — to which the EU was not a member — to give them an advantage over European competitors. But in a further rebuke to the United States, Tokyo decided within a matter of weeks to offer the European nations virtually the same agricultural access to its market that United States trade officials had spent two excruciating years extracting through near-monthly meetings with their Japanese counterparts on the sidelines of the broader TPP negotiations; the United States is now left out.
    ...
    The remaining 11 TPP countries have already met two times, with a third meeting planned, to move ahead with the revival of the deal without the United States. The so-called TPP-11 would be in direct response to Trump’s trade policy. Economic forecasts already show projected gains for countries involved. Canada, according to one estimate, could permanently gain an annual market share of $412 million in beef and $111 million in pork sales to Japan by 2035, because lower tariffs would enable it to eclipse America’s position in the market.​

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/07/trump-tpp-deal-withdrawal-trade-effects-215459

    EDIT: You've just gotta love this bit:

    For his part, Trump once promised a slew of “beautiful” deals to replace the TPP, but his administration has yet to lay out a detailed strategy. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told lawmakers that an analysis is underway to determine where it makes most sense to pursue negotiations.

    In the meantime, Lighthizer, a trade attorney who pressured Japan to voluntarily restrain its steel exports when he was a trade official in the 1980s, said Tokyo should just go ahead and lower their tariffs without expecting anything in return.

    “I think in the areas like beef and the others, they ought to be making some unilateral concessions, at least temporary concessions,” he told lawmakers in June. “And I don't quite understand why that doesn't happen.”​

    Yes, this administration is just chock-full of clever deal-makers, isn't it.
     
  2. Zombie Acorn macrumors 65816

    Zombie Acorn

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    Even Hillary was backing off of TPP in the election. You can't run negative trade imbalances forever.
     
  3. juanm macrumors 65816

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  4. jpietrzak8 thread starter macrumors 65816

    jpietrzak8

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    Um, a negative trade imbalance means that we are importing more than we export. By backing off the TPP, we will be exporting less. How are we supposed to make up for that, stop importing anything at all?
     
  5. Zombie Acorn macrumors 65816

    Zombie Acorn

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    By either getting other countries to drop their protectionist policies or the US can implement their own.

    You are assuming TPP would give us more export power than what we would be taking in, it wouldn't. The deal wasn't good for the US.

    The US is on the losing side of trade, which is fine temporarily, you can't sustain it for decades though.
     
  6. LizKat macrumors 68040

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    Even during Obama's time in office I thought we should get in on the not-that-much-fun of TPP and angle to help make it work better for everyone. What did we have to lose, we already had stuff needed fixing, how does it get easier to fix a bilateral deal when your chief trading partner and competitor is running a mega-mall down the street that we 86'd ourselves from?

    Sure we still have allies and those bilateral arrangements in the area but umbrella trade arrangements are another and an overlapping sphere of influence. Whoever lives in an area where once had to buy a tarp to keep the rain off something usually realizes having a spare, even one of a different size, is a good thing.

    Leaving a US-shaped hole in a trade umbrella is a significant event. And at least in the microcosms of daily life, one doesn't patch an umbrella, one gets a new one. Who's in a position to be selling them in the far east beats me. No one really. That is the point of TPP, d'oh.

    So, net of everything, we now need to shore up our bilateral frameworks. As noted by @jpietrzak8, that seems to have launched with a take it or leave it pitch to Japan. I took a big dog with me once when I went to close a deal for a used car part up on a hill road that will never be paved, but that's about the extent of my having flashed nasty while trying to come out ahead.

    And starting with Japan....? "Chapter 2: We didn't have to build a Nissan plant in the USA to begin with" (and other chapters now being drafted, with "and btw" from their nosy little neighbors)

    By signaling a "no thanks" on TPP and now having said "count us out" we do cede a part of our influence in the region, which imo can't have made all our friends in the area that happy either. Maybe China figures hey at last, the step-sib's outta our hair at least over here for awhile. How cool that is sure remains to be seen We need China and they need us, we both know that and count on our bilateral arrangements. This blip is not world war four but I'm disappointed.
     
  7. PracticalMac macrumors 68030

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    The goal of TPP was to control China's growing power.
    Yes, there was some small sacrifices to some US business, but over all the US would be in dominate positions.

    Now China has free reign to be dominant power in Asia.
    On top of that, other Asian countries are free to deal with other economic power houses, Europe, Saudi, and even Iran.


    The more the US become isolated, the faster other countries surpass US. (double entente)
     
  8. jpietrzak8, Aug 7, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2017

    jpietrzak8 thread starter macrumors 65816

    jpietrzak8

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    This is true -- but only in a world consisting of exactly two equal trading partners. Once you enter a world where multilateral deals become a reality, you will quickly be left behind if you decide not to play.

    The problem here is that we live in a world with dozens of potential trading partners, all with their own unique circumstances, and all with differing resources available for trade. If we are to compete with others on the world stage, the very minimum we must do is engage with others on the world stage. A particular deal may be good or may be bad, depending on how it is negotiated, but no deal at all is the worst choice.

    Donald Trump promised that he was a good negotiator. So, why is he just sitting at home watching TV and posting notes on Twitter? He got rid of the TPP, and replaced it with absolutely nothing! The rest of the world is making deals with each other, while raising prohibitive tariffs against the US.

    The US may have been on the losing side of trade before. But now, other nations are just throwing up their hands and giving up on buying any of our goods...
     
  9. samcraig macrumors P6

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  10. jkcerda macrumors 6502a

    jkcerda

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    Dow hits 22k first time ever and trump is outperforming other presidents in job growth. MAGA
     
  11. localoid macrumors 68020

    localoid

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    Says who?

    [​IMG]
     
  12. samcraig macrumors P6

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    #12
    DGn1vydWAAADFjA.jpg
     
  13. steve knight macrumors 68020

    steve knight

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    there you go your favorite presidents done so much to improve America.
     
  14. localoid macrumors 68020

    localoid

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    #15
  15. jkcerda macrumors 6502a

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    Data will change after 4 years. That I agree with
     
  16. localoid macrumors 68020

    localoid

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    What exactly are the things Trump has done to help the economy? Other than wishful thinking, that is...
     
  17. jkcerda macrumors 6502a

    jkcerda

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    IMG_1265.JPG
    DOW is up and donis employment, market appears to think trump is good for them so .....
     
  18. localoid macrumors 68020

    localoid

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    The DOW is not the economy as a whole. You have to dig deeper in many data sources to get a sense of how well the system is working. And even then, you need to look at how healthy both the workers and employers are...
     
  19. jkcerda macrumors 6502a

    jkcerda

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    Far above my pay grade.
     
  20. steve knight macrumors 68020

    steve knight

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    Well trump has cut regulations that protect workers making McDonald's very happy. So new jobs in the lowest end?
     
  21. niploteksi macrumors regular

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    #22
    Is the US dollar still going strong? I noticed it was cheaper to buy USD for me.
     
  22. jkcerda macrumors 6502a

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    Would you prefer people be unemployed? Cutting regulations affects ALL jobs. Not just low end
     
  23. vrDrew macrumors 65816

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    Talking about where the Dow and unemployment are today is all but meaningless in a discussion of the TPP. Those indexes are a reflection of decisions taken over the course of many, many years.

    Pulling out of the TPP was probably Trump's stupidest, and ultimately most damaging action. (At least so far.) It's pretty obvious that Trump had no idea what the TPP actually does, and can't even begin to understand what the ramifications will be. We're just starting to see the effects - like the OP suggests. But trust me: None of those effects will be huge new sneaker and t-shirt factories opening up in Southern California or the Carolinas.

    Trump is a moron. And the favorite candidate of American moron voters.
     
  24. steve knight macrumors 68020

    steve knight

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    #25
    Would I prefer workers not getting screwed by their employers? Is it OK not paying overtime? If it takes screwing employees to cause a company to hire employees where is America at then? China?
     

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