The Great Recession is over

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by jnpy!$4g3cwk, Mar 5, 2016.

  1. jnpy!$4g3cwk macrumors 65816

    jnpy!$4g3cwk

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    #1
    Officially, of course, the economy has been growing for a long time, although none of the visible, noisy Republicans are willing to discuss it. Unemployment is now below 5%, job growth has been "brisk":

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/05/b...ort-unemployment-wages.html?ref=business&_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/05/b...ort-unemployment-wages.html?ref=business&_r=0

    And, finally, the labor force participation rate has been increasing:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/05/u...he-fastest-rate-in-16-years.html?ref=business

    (Sorry, the NYTimes seems to have fixed it to make the graphs less easy to include, although the data is at BLS, the Fred website, etc.)

    And yet, strangely, the last time I heard a panel of Republican candidates talking about it, you would think that it was 1933 again. Sure, it isn't 1953 again, but, we've come a long way from 2009:

    [​IMG]

    https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?hires=1&g=3Gkz

    [​IMG]

    https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.jpg?hires=1&g=3GmN
     
  2. Zombie Acorn macrumors 65816

    Zombie Acorn

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    #2
    If we can discourage a few million more workers with no opportunity we can get that unemployment below 3%.
     
  3. thermodynamic Suspended

    thermodynamic

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    #3
    Nice, but even more details are still overlooked:

    http://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/

    Can't even blame trickle down for this one, but trickle down as a solution has proven to be a failure as well...
     
  4. FieldingMellish Suspended

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    #4
    OP's report fails to take into account the huge numbers of those who gave up looking for work, and the fact that many of those working are underemployed and not in their line of work. It's been depressing and remains depressing.

    One of the conspicuous unofficial barometers known locally is the Long Island Railroad. PLENTY of available seats at the height of rush hour and onward. Used to be packed and with so many standees.
     
  5. maxsix Suspended

    maxsix

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    #5
    This seems to be a liberal puff piece designed to make Hussein look good.

    Sadly, there's a huge disconnect between reality and the liberal progressive media spin.
     
  6. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #6
    Several problems: First, if you calculate unemployment as it was done in the 1930s, the rate is around 23%. The "official" rate, U3, only counts those currently drawing unemployment and seeking work. U6 picks up those who have used up benefits, are off the books, and are discouraged. So, roughly, double the U3 rate. Then pick up the underemployed, the part- timers, and then those who were self-employed and were not eligible for unemployment benefits to get a grand total of the 23%.

    In 2014, the GDP calculation methodology added some 3% by adding in the money spent on R&D; it had not previously been counted. Gotta compare apples with apples. Government spending is part of GDP. If you look at private sector % of GDP, I suspect it has not increased in recent years. Less than the percentage increase in population/labor force.

    A major problem is that lost jobs were generally $40/hour and up. New jobs are $15 and under. That is part of the reason for the bankruptcies and store closings in the retail sector.

    Basically, the recession which began in 2008 is still with us.
     
  7. throAU macrumors 601

    throAU

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    #7
    I'd be a little wary about declaring victory just yet, the fundamentals behind the problems from the 2006 crash are still there, and the next big toxic debt problem you have is credit card debt and credit default swaps. That graph shows a very brief uptick which looks almost within the realm of statistical error...

    None of the problems have really been fixed, the fed has just been printing their way out of it.
     
  8. 1458279 Suspended

    1458279

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    #8
    I'm glad you brought up trickle down because Obama is the biggest trickle down president ever.
    Trickle down is not limited to tax policy, Obama (directly or not) caused the rich to get SUPER rich and the poor to get poorer. He bragged about the stock market (until it went flat) and the fake unemployment numbers. While ignoring the fact that the stock market is propped up by ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy).

    BTW, in the entire history of America, we have NEVER had < 3% GDP growth for 10 straight years.

    Home ownership down.

    The great thing about the economy is that you can't lie about it to the people. All they have to do is look in their wallet and they can tell you how great the economy is.

    60+ percent can't caught up $500
    75 percent are basically paycheck to paycheck.
    There's a homeless crisis.

    If Obama said water flows up hill, his followers would believe it.

    On the upside, Hillary went from DEAD BROKE to SUPER RICH by selling access to government power, so there's that.
     
  9. FieldingMellish Suspended

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    #9
    Some seriously valid points have been made. But for some silliness, why is a recession during the Obama administration branded "great?" What a way to start a puff piece. ;)
     
  10. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #10

    June 2014 -

    LIRR ridership up 2%, climbing for 2nd year in row

    February 2016

    LIRR, Metro-North see ridership boost


     
  11. FieldingMellish Suspended

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2010
    #11

    Good one. That means nothing and what I say is the gospel.

    Watch out for self (Union) serving claims from the LIRR, home of one of the largest and most widespread disability scams ever.

    LIRR doc in $1 billion scam gets 8 years in prison

    http://m.nydailynews.com/news/crime/lirr-doc-1-billion-scam-8-years-prison-article-1.1628516

    11 Charged in L.I.R.R. Disability Fraud Plot

    http://mobile.nytimes.com/2011/10/28/nyregion/charges-in-lirr-disability-scheme.html?referer=
     
  12. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #12

    So we move from your false claim of low ridership to disability scams. Luz.
     
  13. thewap macrumors demi-god

    thewap

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    #13
    0% interest rates for over decade, pure speculation stock market = bubble economy. Obamacare creating temp and part time workforce subpar to livable wages compared to inflation = illusion of *were are doing great!*
     
  14. 1458279 Suspended

    1458279

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    #14
    Don't forget quantitive easing, TARP, the biggest stim package in US history, and who's gone back and calculated how much American homeowners lost since the crash? How much of that loss has been recovered?

    Some in Washington are saying "things are getting so much better" yet all they have is the reversal of job losses. They jump to the old talking point "under Bush, we were losing X jobs per month" ... yet what policy out of Washington has actually created any job growth? It's the people that have recovered to the extent we have, Washington deserves none of the credit.

    BTW, our national debt is DOUBLED, so there's that little fact that doesn't making into the Obama talking points.

    The very fact that the Left keeps bragging about this economy, show a disconnect with the people. This is why they've had enough of Washington and why Bernie is doing so well against someone with the background of Hillary.

    If the economy was so great, why are the people staying home on the Left and coming out in record numbers for the Right?
    --- Post Merged, Mar 6, 2016 ---
    BTW, the government said the 'great recession' was over back in 09. So saying it's over now, shows that it really wan't over except by using government numbers.
     
  15. jnpy!$4g3cwk thread starter macrumors 65816

    jnpy!$4g3cwk

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    #16
    As I said, things are not great-- but, after the Great Recession, the economists told us it would take a long time to get to this point. And, it did. Here we are. Where do we go from here? But, the Republican Party candidates are claiming the economy has been a disaster.

    What do you think the Labor Force Participation Rate should be, and why? I'm thinking it could be 65-66%. 66-67% was actually too high-- at that time, I saw plenty of hiring of people for jobs for which they were not qualified.

    You need to stop reading those websites-- they are nonsense. But, if your point is that roughly 10 M more people could be working-- I agree with you! Nevertheless, employment has been and is showing solid growth.

    I've posted the graphs myself-- yes, many lower-middle-class jobs have disappeared, and many more have had their wages reduced drastically. The changing economy has been ugly for the lower middle class. And, I'm 8 years older, too.

    Not true by any normal definition.

    Who is declaring "victory"? I had one point to make-- it isn't 1933, employment is growing, things are looking up, and, the Republican candidates are declaring a disaster. Go figure.

    And a question: How to improve the situation for the lower middle class?
     
  16. 1458279 Suspended

    1458279

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    #17
    The truth is that in order to see the true value of where we are, you have to consider what it cost us to get here.

    Look at the start. We had much higher wealth in the middle/lower class, home ownership and the jobs paid more and we had more people working as a % of population. Then it hit, the housing bubble burst.

    Aside fault, who was pres, etc... just economic and policy for the recovery.

    10 trillion added to the debt.

    about 1 trillion spent on 'shovel ready jobs'

    4+ trillion in QE

    ZIRP - which causes local governments to seek higher gains and higher risk in order to try and get 7% returns they need to get by. Now they're putting debt on another credit card.

    ... and for all this, what did we get? A great economy? NO, we didn't. The rich got richer, the poor got poorer.

    Now, we're in a hard spot. We have to raise interest rates, but we can't. If we grow fast, rates or inflation will go up. People aren't protected well from inflation in important things like homes.

    Once inflation (and/or int rates) go up, the middle class will be harmed.

    We're painted into a corner, simple as that.

    Think about how many 'experts' have advise Obama. He went in with an all star team and we got 10 years of < 3% growth... Worst EVER.

    Everybody wanted (or should have wanted) a better outcome, but it didn't happen.

    What's worse is that about 1/2 the nation think different from the other 1/2 on which way to go. Point: we don't have a clear vision on what direction to go from here, and that means we'll probably have more of the same slow growth for a long time.
     
  17. nbs2 macrumors 68030

    nbs2

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    #18
    This has been a great opportunity to see the value of the electoral college.

    Seriously, hear me out.

    The numbers given here suggest a slow, but clear, emergence from the recession we have been under for the last near 10 years. Assuming this holds for the next year, that would suggest nationally the concerns of joblessness can be slightly deprecated in view of other issues.

    The trouble is, here in Houston, and throughout much of Texas and along with significant portions of the gulf coast and others, unemployment is rampant and growing quickly as a result of the energy downturn. What would ordinarily be drowned out by the broader national perspective is given a level of attention as many states with smaller populations (and Texas) are given a broader voice.

    I'd almost call it the unionization of several states. Who'd have thought these would be the states that benefitted from forming a virtual union.
     
  18. jnpy!$4g3cwk thread starter macrumors 65816

    jnpy!$4g3cwk

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    #19
    So, debt as a fraction of GDP has leveled off at a level significantly lower than at the end of WWII:

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    The U.S. worked its way out of debt following WWII, despite being painted into a worse corner than now. The difference between then and now? Political will.
     
  19. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #20
    Ah, well. So you won't mind my copping that line to use the next time some gun thread looks to be disrespecting some citation I offer. I'll give you credit, of course.
     
  20. 1458279, Mar 6, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2016

    1458279 Suspended

    1458279

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    #21
    You're suggesting that the one stat you show is the only stat that would paint us into a corner?

    What was the level of unfunded mandates back then?

    If you were correct, we should be doing awesome right now, but we're not? What do you blame the slow growth on?

    BTW, you've ignored the fact that much of that debt happened during the 'recovery' ... we haven't had a recovery if you account for the national debt, all we've done is live more on the nation's credit card.
     
  21. throAU macrumors 601

    throAU

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    #22
    Essentially your government needs to let the banks go broke.

    Iceland did this and they're fine now. They also jailed the people responsible.

    The US government just gave those responsible more money to play with and make bad decisions with. If you or i make bad business decisions and lose our money, we go broke. It should make no difference just because you're a billionaire.

    Anything less is just kicking the can down the road and increasing the scale of the problem which will hurt a lot more when the inevitable finally happens.

    Comparing debt levels, etc. to WW2 isn't really valid as the metrics by which things are measured have been changed so many times. The US reserve doesn't even report on a bunch of the money generation it does any more.
     
  22. jnpy!$4g3cwk thread starter macrumors 65816

    jnpy!$4g3cwk

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    #23
    The US is roughly 16% of the world's GDP, with a larger than average share of banking. Iceland is 0.01% of the world's GDP. Surely you see the difference?
     
  23. throAU, Mar 6, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2016

    throAU macrumors 601

    throAU

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    #24
    The difference is irrelevant.

    Iceland's economy recovered within 12 months.

    The US economy will recover if the cancer is removed.

    In terms of the global economy, you guys think you're far, far more important than you really are, and have been brainwashed by the big banks into handing them more money for fear of the end of the world.

    It's a lie. Let the criminals go to jail.

    The world functioned just fine before the US becoming a superpower, and it will function just fine after it is gone as well. By continually handing the criminals more money to continue the problem is only growing.
     
  24. Renzatic Suspended

    Renzatic

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    #25
    As much as I otherwise agree with you, America is one of the lynchpins of the modern economy, as are the big EU players, and China.

    One of the big downsides of a global economy is that no one country is truly autonomous anymore. We're all attached to the hip. If one falls, the rest falls with it.
     

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