The Independent/NBC News: Trump narrowly trailing Hillary by three points in latest US election

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Jess13, Jul 12, 2016.

  1. Jess13 Suspended

    Jess13

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    #1
    It would seem this is within the margin of error, as well. So they could be, in fact, tied.


    Donald Trump narrowly trailing Hillary Clinton by three points in latest US election poll

    The margin of victory has become increasingly narrow

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...election-2016-news-three-points-a7132956.html

    In a blow to Hillary Clinton’s campaign, her lead over Donald Trump has fallen to just three points nationwide.

    Ms Clinton is forecast to gain 47 per cent of the vote over Mr Trump's 44 per cent, according to a new poll from NBC News/Survey Monkey.

    In the same poll last week, Ms Clinton had a wider gap of 48 per cent to his 43 per cent.


    The news comes after FBI director James Comey and the Justice Department decided not to pursue Ms Clinton for criminal charges although they determined she had been “extremely careless” regarding the misuse of her personal email server as secretary of state.

    Attorney General Loretta Lynch, testifying on Tuesday about the email scandal, said she “accepted the FBI findings” but defended the Justice Department’s ruling.

    A total of 82 per cent believe that the misuse of emails was “not appropriate”, compared to just 15 per cent who say it was.

    Around two thirds of those surveyed believe that the Democrat is neither safe nor trustworthy.


    Despite the flagging poll results for Ms Clinton, Mr Trump is still viewed unfavorably by the majority of the electorate - 62 per cent - in the new poll. But his unpopularity rating is just 2 per cent higher than Ms Clinton.

    The new poll sampled 7,869 adult registered voters between 4 and 10 July.​
     
  2. DearthnVader macrumors regular

    DearthnVader

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    #2
    National polls really mean nothing, because you can't win by popular vote. We never know if they over sampled California and New York or Texas and South Carolina.

    What we need is at least 250 people polled from each state to give us some idea of what the electoral map looks like, but I guess those polls come later in the race.
     
  3. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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  4. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    Or Clinton could have increased her lead too, given the margin of error.

    Trump should get a bounce in the polls from next week's convention too, or at least he should, and Hillary will get one when the democrats have their conventions.......both bumps will fade away though
     
  5. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    A single poll at a single point doesn't mean a darn thing.
     
  6. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #6
    indeed.......if you look at Fivethirtyeight's collected list of national polls, depending on how far back in time you go, you'll see individual polls reporting a range of Trump +2 to Clinton +11
     
  7. DearthnVader macrumors regular

    DearthnVader

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    #7
    It could come down to a close election, with a state with 10 or less electoral votes deciding it, but Trump has a lot more states, just by shear number, he "has" to win.

    Just looking at the 2012 electoral map, Trump will have to flip FL, OH, NH, IA, and NV to get a tie( 269-269 ). Which should give him the Presidency upon a vote in the Republican controlled House of Representatives.

    [​IMG]

    Of course, for some reason, in the event of a tie, the Senate votes for the Vice-President.

    But it all comes down to how Trump is polling in these states later in the race, if he's not polling well in NV, but is in NM he'll have to adjust. He just can't throw money and time into a state he's going to lose anyway. If he's not polling well in OH, he'll have to look at PA or MI. I think he has to win FL, it would be like losing TX. The Democrats can count on CA and NY for 84 electoral votes, it money in the bank, Trump must win the two highest remaining electoral vote states.

    Trump hasn't done himself any favors in FL with Hispanic voters.

    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...hispanic-voter-registration-grows-in-florida/
     
  8. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    Trump is toast. He can't focus on the task, not least because he doesn't really want the job.
     
  9. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    It does seem like he must win Florida if he's going to have a chance.

    That he looks likely to lose his home state, New York, is a problem too. (I remember reading that historically it's "easier" to get elected president despite losing the popular vote than it is if a candidate doesn't win his home state. Gore would have won in 2000 if he'd won Tennessee, his home state, and never mind those hanging chads in Florida)

    For Trump, winning those NY electoral votes would make a YUUUUGE difference
     
  10. DearthnVader macrumors regular

    DearthnVader

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    He's not going to win NY, he's already put that out of his mind. Trump is focusing on 17 states, FL, GA, NC, VA, PA, NH, ME, OH, IN, MI, WI, MO, IA, MN, CO, AZ, and NV. He's assuming he'll win the other 19 Red states, that Romney won in 2012, from the map I posted.
     
  11. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    He might not want to assume he is winning one Romney state....Utah! :D

    Frankly I think he will struggle in Virginia and Colorado too. I don't see him winning PA but stranger things have happened I suppose. The other potential toss up states like FL and NC I am less sure about.

    If he has to focus on Arizona though, that is problematic. He shouldn't have to focus on that at all. The fact that he does, says a lot. Same with GA.
     
  12. NT1440 macrumors G4

    NT1440

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    #12
    Do you think his supporters are going to realize they've been duped, or are they instead going to subscribe to the Trump Network when it launches?
     
  13. nfl46 macrumors 603

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    Lol. Hillary has this won...it'll be a landslide in November. Guaranteed 5% or more electoral victory.
     
  14. NT1440 macrumors G4

    NT1440

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    That's not much of a landslide.
     
  15. impulse462 Suspended

    impulse462

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    #15
    It's cute that trump is focusing on michigan. Even working class anti-trade auto people there don't like him.
     
  16. Robisan macrumors 6502

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    #16
    My standard response: When Trump consistently polls over 45% I'll consider it possible for him to win. Obviously states matter, someone polling below 45% isn't going to win enough states.
     
  17. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    He certainly has Dearborn wrapped up.
     
  18. LizKat macrumors 68040

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    Arizona, well... TheDon may have burnt any bridges with either Senator, don't you think? Idiot. He will run into a buzzsaw there, Dem $$$ will put up ads about Trump dissing McCain *and* Flake, plus Trump keeps forgetting there are Hispanic-Americans in Arizona, legal residents, born here of parents born here. General election is late for him to run goofy twitter ads again saying he loves hispanics with a picture of tacos etc. Arizona deserves better from the GOP and may settle for Clinton.

    PA, there are some rural districts that will definitely go for Trump. And PA is where Obama uttered his unfortunate thing about clinging to guns and religion iirc so ads will be run to revive that, probably. What can save it for Dems in PA is organization on the ground. This is a state where Gary Johnson might hurt Trump.

    NC for awhile I was thinking would go to Clinton but now I can't remember why. Something I read that surprised me about the demographics I think. Maybe Hispanics? I dunno.

    Florida.... the pols are so benighted in their approach to environment you'd think the voters would have turned the place blue already but not so. Rubio back in the Senate race might not do much for the Republican ticket at that level or above. Reminders of insane debates and both DaRump and DaRube acting like children. But there are a lot of Floridians in the conservative northern regions who really loathe Clinton.

    CO... don't know. The rural parts are way red but the state heading more purple to blue? Again, Gary Johnson might sway some votes from Trump and so help Clinton.

    GA you'd think Clinton, except rural whites who can believe Trump's an evangelical too (possibly big problem) or who don't care about that.

    Ain't identity politics grand. Ordinarily I'd be more into dissecting it all up like that but this year what makes it really daunting, or maybe worthless, is the high unfavorability of both candidates.
     
  19. DearthnVader macrumors regular

    DearthnVader

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    Here's some polling data from the key battle ground states, it's from Real Clear Politics and it averages some of the latest polling data they have.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

    FL: Clinton +3.7
    GA: Trump +4.2
    NC: Clinton +0.7
    VA: Clinton +4.0
    PA: Clinton +2.3
    NH: Clinton +2.7
    OH: Clinton +2.5
    MI: Clinton +10.25 ( no average was given, so I averaged the last 4 polls )
    IA: Clinton +4.7
    CO: Clinton +4.0
    AZ: Clinton +0.5
    NV: Clinton +4( Only one poll )
    ME(CD2): Trump +1 ( One electoral vote )( One Poll )

    So according to these polls and this map, right now Clinton has a 357-to-181 lead on Trump. Based on these polls, if I were advising Trump I'd concentrate on every state I trailed by less than 4 points in the Polls.

    Battle Ground states Trump must win: FL, GA, NC, PA. OH, and AZ. That would give Trump the easiest path to 270 electoral votes from these polling numbers.( 273 )
     
  20. DearthnVader macrumors regular

    DearthnVader

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    #21
    Trump maybe trailing Clinton in the polls, but when you consider how much she can out spend he by, he's getting a hell of a deal per vote:

    This page shows contributions sorted by industry to the candidate's campaign committee plus any super PACs or hybrid PACs working on his or her behalf.( Clinton )

    Code:
    1    Securities & Investment    $32,532,065
    2    Retired    $27,295,533
    3    Lawyers/Law Firms    $19,696,997
    4    TV/Movies/Music    $17,244,508
    5    Non-Profit Institutions    $10,644,814
    6    Building Trade Unions    $9,203,654
    7    Misc Finance    $8,815,214
    8    Women's Issues    $7,968,273
    9    Real Estate    $7,893,385
    10    Education    $7,770,060
    11    Printing & Publishing    $7,431,635
    12    Business Services    $5,551,580
    13    Democratic/Liberal    $4,991,229
    14    Health Professionals    $4,604,607
    15    Civil Servants/Public Officials    $3,740,726
    16    Pro-Israel    $3,373,602
    17    Pharmaceuticals/Health Products    $3,003,329
    18    Construction Services    $2,453,630
    19    Misc Business    $2,307,263
    20    Public Sector Unions    $2,131,958

    ( Trump )
    Code:
    1    Retired    $1,226,886
    2    Real Estate    $328,050
    3    Misc Finance    $300,978
    4    TV/Movies/Music    $169,010
    5    Health Professionals    $142,687
    6    Misc Business    $114,990
    7    Non-Profit Institutions    $103,726
    8    Lawyers/Law Firms    $84,545
    9    General Contractors    $63,799
    10    Securities & Investment    $63,559
    11    Misc Manufacturing & Distributing    $59,554
    12    Insurance    $55,204
    13    Civil Servants/Public Officials    $42,707
    14    Business Services    $41,340
    15    Education    $35,054
    16    Other    $34,907
    17    Retail Sales    $34,365
    18    Special Trade Contractors    $30,735
    19    Electronics Mfg & Equip    $30,444
    20    Hospitals/Nursing Homes    $29,058
    
     
  21. Mac'nCheese macrumors 68030

    Mac'nCheese

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    Yeah but let's make a new thread for every single one.:rolleyes:
     
  22. Savor Suspended

    Savor

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    #23
    [​IMG]
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    People will be like who the hell is Hillary Clinton if Bill was never our president before her. Trump succeeded on his own without a predecessor. Hillary is a nobody without Bill. Weird thing is I probably knew Donald Trump (circa 1990-1991) before I ever knew who the Clintons, Bill Gates, and Steve Jobs were.

    Alot of right wing wackos here in this forum that I will probably go listen to some Tom Leykis after this post. But if your idol wins, applause. I liked his cameo with Marla Maples in The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air. Marla was hot stuff for me. Stayed in the Taj Mahal in 1991 when I visited Atlantic City. It's no Trump Plaza but it was cool enough for a kid chillaxing in Atlantic City.

    This is how it likely goes like clockwork. One candidate says something, people applause. Another candidate says something, people applause. Nobody should be believing anything they promise. Then when either one is inaugurated, nothing. Political promises in debates as real as the WWE and reality TV. Part of the reason of being regarded a great president is because the modern era didn't go through the adversity like Lincoln, FDR, and Washington had.

    What we elect now are reality TV stars to look good at camera and ability to parody them. I can already imagine Jay Leno wants his job back from Jimmy Fallon. Add social media to the mix where everything gets magnified. This next eight years is going to be fun for late-night. The economy and jobs may not come back but the laughter will. Whoever wins, will be re-elected no matter how crappy they did their job in the first-term like George W.

    The loser would be too old to run again in 2020. Imagine having Hillary or Donald be the prez into their 80's? More sex jokes for Bill. More hair jokes and faux pas racist/sexist comments from Donald. More caricatures on both which is who they are to most of us. More arguments. And most importantly, more chicks for both these "reality TV" actors. Think Tony Montana. Money. Power. Sex. That's all what real men wants to fulfill especially that last one for Hillary's hubby. The rest is just smoke and mirrors. They could care about us.

    Donald Trump is the closest person in having Biff Tannen, a hint of Donald Sterling, Ernie McCracken, and Tony Stark as our President. You also get Michael Douglas from Wall Street, Leonardo Dicaprio from The Wolf of Wall Street, and Ben Affleck from The Boiler Room. Okay, forget that last one. Sorry, DT. In a year, we will have posters complaining about them that nothing changed. It is the Internet age we live in to complain and hate on anyone or anything...

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    Take off that toupee, who are you?
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    But if Bill came back....
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    It isn't the 1990's anymore. He can get away with alot of it now. The Internet/smartphone age isn't all bad...
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  23. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #24
    It's not an enviable task, but not impossible for Trump.

    It'd be a lot easier if he wasn't still fighting with the traditional republican establishment
     

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