The Official Polls Trump Creates are...not at all biased

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by samcraig, Feb 13, 2018.

  1. samcraig macrumors P6

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  2. BeeGood macrumors 68000

    BeeGood

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    #2
    A few possibilities here:

    -Trump isn’t bright enough to realize what’s wrong with the poll.
    -Trump knows what’s wrong with the poll, but is too insecure to do it correctly.
    -Trump knows what’s wrong with the poll, and is just trolling everyone.
    -Trump actually believes that this is a legit way to gather data.
     
  3. ericgtr12 macrumors 65816

    ericgtr12

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    #3
    Or he gets his math from Fox News... I mean when you ask 120% of the voters what can go wrong?

    [​IMG]
     
  4. RichardMZhlubb Contributor

    RichardMZhlubb

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    #4
    Or, far more likely: Trump personally has nothing to do with this. This is campaign/RNC people trying to create fictional good news to placate the man-child in chief.
     
  5. Rhonindk macrumors 68040

    Rhonindk

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    #5
    What I find interesting is that Trumps current poll numbers are just a couple points under what they were when he took office. I would have expected far less..... (LINK)
     
  6. samcraig thread starter macrumors P6

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    #6
    I think what's interesting to look at besides the big "number" is the rankings. For example, on some polls I saw, his approval ranking was (making up a number) 48% - but that was a combination of a small percentage of strongly approve and larger generic approve whereas the strongly disapprove numbers were high and the disapprove were low.

    It's interesting because a simple "approve" or "disapprove" isn't the full story.
     
  7. Gutwrench Contributor

    Gutwrench

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    #7
    Thanks for the link.

    Registered my response and made an rnc donation.
     
  8. samcraig thread starter macrumors P6

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    #8
    You weren't already on their mailing list? I'm surprised.
     
  9. Gutwrench Contributor

    Gutwrench

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    #9
    Nope I’m not.
     
  10. RichardMZhlubb Contributor

    RichardMZhlubb

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    #10
    Well, keep in mind that his poll numbers have been historically low from the start. We've never had a president (at least during post-WWII polling) who had approval numbers as low as Trump's from day one.
     
  11. ericgtr12 macrumors 65816

    ericgtr12

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    #11
    Yet he still won even with those numbers, nobody at the time would've predicted it but there was such dissatisfaction with Washington and the polls really didn't seem to capture that. The being said, IMO that election was an outlier and it with as poorly as he's done while being surrounded by investigations it would be shocking if he got a second term.
     
  12. RichardMZhlubb Contributor

    RichardMZhlubb

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    #12
    Well, his vote totals were actually pretty much in line with his initial poll numbers (mid-40's). His share of the vote was about the same as that received by losers like Dukakis and McCain. Trump just lucked out with the distribution of his supporters and the 8 million people who decided to vote third party. He's not winning again with only 46% of the vote.
     
  13. ericgtr12 macrumors 65816

    ericgtr12

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    #13
    Right, combine that with the low Democratic turnout and it was a perfect recipe. Hillary was not a very good candidate (IMO) and enthusiasm was low.
     
  14. RichardMZhlubb Contributor

    RichardMZhlubb

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    #14
    The analysis I'd like to see is whether Trump would lose in 2020 if the only changes from the 2016 results were shifts in demographics. I'd have to imagine that the shifts in demographics alone (to a younger, less white population) in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would be enough to swing the results to the Democratic nominee. That's why Trump's insistence on focussing exclusively on his base is going to be his ultimate undoing. There won't be enough of them to win in 2020.
     
  15. ZapNZs macrumors 68020

    ZapNZs

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    #15
    LMAO. This made my day. I only wish they would have attempted to visualize it. Numberz failz makes me a happy boy.

    [​IMG]
     
  16. RichardMZhlubb Contributor

    RichardMZhlubb

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    #16
    Because I was curious, I did a quick back-of-the-envelope analysis of Michigan, and, assuming everyone who voted in 2016 votes again and for the same parties in 2020, Trump loses the state by at least 60,000 votes just due to the new voters who didn’t turn 18 until after the last election. I’m fairly sure that the same result would occur in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. So, he cannot win again without increasing his base, which he appears to be neither capable nor interested in doing.
     
  17. GermanSuplex macrumors 6502a

    GermanSuplex

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    #17
    Question 1:

    Answer: Other

    Explain: Go to Youtube.com and search the word “Trump”.
     
  18. mac_in_tosh macrumors 6502

    mac_in_tosh

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    #18
    Let's not forget the assist from Russia. And before anyone says there's no proof it helped turn the election, he won by very narrow margins in a few key states. You would have to believe that the meddling had absolutely no effect to think that it didn't help him. It only had to sway a very small number of people.

    This is separate from the question of collusion. That there was interference is believed by just about everyone except Trump and his lackeys.
     
  19. GermanSuplex macrumors 6502a

    GermanSuplex

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    #19
    Hillary beat Obama and Trump. Maybe Trump bragging as a guy eligible for AARP marrying a pre-teen when she turns of age on TV, and an accused serial sexual-assaulter will help them, turn from him - even if to another conservative - will be enough. We shall see.
     

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18 February 13, 2018