The polls: What if the LA Times ........

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Herdfan, Nov 5, 2016.

  1. Herdfan macrumors 6502

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    #1
    Poll was correct?

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

    The LA Times/USC poll uses a different methodology that most other polls in that it samples from the same 3,000 voters instead of all voters. This can mean a couple of things, but it can also show trends, specifically when support has moved from one candidate to another.

    Right now it has Trump up 5 points nationally over Hillary. What if it is not the outlier? The LA Times is a liberal leaning paper so I am sure they don't want their poll to be accurate. But I also can't see them wanting to do it wrong either. Remember this the method the RAND poll used in 2012 which was only one of a handful of polls that showed a Democratic bias.

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    Also, what if there is a measurable amount of Bradley/Wilder factor going on, but not for the same reason. In those cases respondents would tell African American pollsters they were voting for those candidates, but actually didn't. So polling showed big wins for them, but Bradley lost and Wilder won by a very slim margin. The effect has also been seen for female candidates but to a lesser degree.

    But for a minute, lets posit that Trumps supporters are lying to pollsters, but not because they are embarrassed to admit they are voting for him (although this may be a factor), but because they are channeling his disdain for the media and they just want to mess with them and see how wrong they are on election day. Remember Trump has punked the media on at least 2 occasions. So why would his supporters not want to do the same?

    Just some food for thought.
     
  2. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #2
    In this year of reality TV as reality, we probably can't even figure out if Occam's Razor would suggest taking the LA TImes at face value or ripping the mask off to see if there's a really big onion under there somewhere. :rolleyes:
     
  3. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #3
    We don't vote on a national basis. This isn't Brexit.

    Also, it's not just about republican votes misleading polling (something I doubt happens very much), but also demographics, who is registering, who is turning in early votes. This isn't like the old days where no one had any data at all until election night. Now we can see all kinds of things before then. And thus far Hillary is meeting or exceeding numbers that Obama had except in Iowa and Ohio where she is underperforming.

    This LA poll has been an outlier most of the campaign. To the point where other outfits do not use it's data as they consider their methodology unreliable. With a constant sample of the same people I question if they have enough Hispanics, Africican Americans, Asians and involved and just how dispersed their sample is geographically.
     
  4. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #4
    With the same sample over time you probably cannot weight accurately for lying.
     
  5. Herdfan thread starter macrumors 6502

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    #5
    Not knowing the inner workings of the polls,
    It is still part of the RCP aggregate.

    They don't sample the same exact people each week. More like a jury pool where so many are chosen each week, but from the same pool. I believe their sample size is the similar to other polling firms.

    As to the make up, I have no idea but I am sure it is adjusted for.
     
  6. lowendlinux Contributor

    lowendlinux

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    #6
    If it's correct then on the 9th Trump is president elect, is this complicated? We'll all go to work and get on with life
     
  7. satcomer macrumors 603

    satcomer

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    #7
    Yea but some poster will go ballistic! ;)
     
  8. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #8
    Maybe not, if we move the goalposts just a little, and take off Donny's mask :cool: before the election.

    LA Times: Putin narrowly wins Miss America title in massive upset

    NY Times: Nation reels over massive hoax, Trump flees to Argentina

    WSJ: Investors short dollar as China flips US-based hog farms to Venezuela

    Chappaqua Post: Clinton urges calm as meteor misses 2016 targets

    The Daily Star: Locals shrug as autumn weather lingers in area

     
  9. Zenithal macrumors 603

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    #9
    People in SoCal don't even read the LA Times anymore. It's rubbish. The LA Times lost cred a couple years after 9/11 when the internet age was booming and they became a borderline tabloid. I prefer to get my news from other papers or international press.
     
  10. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #10
    I don't think it helped when Sam Zell's outfit had taken over Tribune Co. It's hard to come back from buyouts and layoffs and assorted other indignities doubtless came their way then.
     
  11. Zenithal macrumors 603

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    #11
    Yep. 2008-2009 was awful for a lot of some, quality presses. A lot of them couldn't get the money they needed to run news online and had to be sold off, shut down or ask for money. I used to enjoy the Portland Tribune in those days. Quality went downhill fast after they switched to once a week papers.
     
  12. ronntaylor macrumors regular

    ronntaylor

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    #12
    No matter who wins, there will be a minuscule bunch on either side that will go crazy. The Trumpsters will really lose it though, so I'd be much more concerned with them. I've been disappointed nearly half the time since I became a voter. Even if the Chump wins -- which I seriously doubt, but the GOP has a knack for voter suppression and outright thievery -- I will live with the results. It's all about the Senate and to a lesser degree, the House. The Dems will make gains, but will still be far short of retaking it.

    No matter who wins, the real work starts on November 9th as the smarter voters/pols begin the work for the 2018 midterms.
     
  13. mobilehaathi macrumors G3

    mobilehaathi

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    #13
    Look, I realize a lot of the Trumpettes are only interested in information that confirms their worldview, so I'm not expecting much from you lot. This particular poll is very open about it's methodology, and this information has been analyzed for why it is such an outlier. Funnily, it is the statistically ignorant Trumpettes who rail on about how the major polls are rigged because of the re-weighting of samples, and yet when this particular poll is actually rightfully criticized for a problem that manifests as a result of the re-weighting scheme it becomes some kind of beacon of hope.

    Oh well.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/u...-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html
     
  14. zin Suspended

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    #14
    Polls must be wrong. Otherwise the globalists wouldn't have just sent someone with a gun to his rally in Nevada. Trump had to be escorted out by Secret Service.
     
  15. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #15
    Trump just proclaimed at a rally, that they will never be stopped, so I think perhaps he is planning on carrying this on past the election. Rigged, never stopped, crooked...rinse and repeat.
    --- Post Merged, Nov 5, 2016 ---
    Source on "globalist sent"
    Source on gun.

    Seriously, if someone is getting in there with a gun, someone at the doors isn't doing their job.
     
  16. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #16
    @zin, I see you have been online and liking other post in this forum since I asked you to provide a source. Yet you haven't. Please provide source or retract erroneous globalist gun claim. Thank you.
     
  17. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #17
    47 hours left and this could be a close one.

    A few days ago looked like a GOP win but barely Trump but pretty even now. RCP has Clinton up only 1.7 points.

    216-164 Clinton right now with a lot of toss up contests.
     
  18. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #18
    You spread more propaganda than Russia does.
     
  19. mobilehaathi macrumors G3

    mobilehaathi

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    #19
    Could you be more hysterical? And wrong?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...-for-holding-a-republicans-against-trump-sign
     
  20. zin Suspended

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    #20
  21. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #21
    It wasn't just the gun part of your post that was a problem. It was also the "globalist sent" problem as well. This is the third time I have asked for a source on your claims which you have not provided. Next, it's going to moderation. You are violating forum rules.
     
  22. Mac'nCheese macrumors 68040

    Mac'nCheese

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    #22
    So I guess everybody who said it was a liberal with a gun can go back and edit their posts with the correct information now.
     
  23. zin Suspended

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    #23
    Adjust your sarcasm meter. Obviously it was a random nutter, not sent by George Soros. Although I wouldn't put it past them given the WikiLeaks revelations.

    Step down from the high horse. Next time I'll include a disclaimer specifically for you.
     
  24. Mac'nCheese macrumors 68040

    Mac'nCheese

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    #24
    . Wait was it misinformation as you first said or sarcasm like you are now saying. "Adjust the sarcasm meter" = "I never admit when I'm wrong"
     
  25. zin Suspended

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    #25
    The "globalist" part was obviously sarcasm. Hillary might be desperate, but I don't think she'd send someone to kill him. The fact there wasn't a gun was inaccurate information (which we now know).
     

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