The Post-First Presidential Debate polling is coming in

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by MadeTheSwitch, Oct 3, 2016.

  1. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #1
    Interesting numbers. A plus four improvement for Clinton. I will look forward to some other polling that no doubt will be coming later this week to see if they agree. Though this poll is usually pretty good. Even more interesting is that both third party numbers seem to be locked in stone and haven't budged a bit. It's become clear, Johnson won't be qualifying for any of the debates. And certainly won't be winning not that he ever really had a chance to begin with. People say they want third choices, but at the end of the day it always comes down to just two every single election. If third parties can't make it work this year of all years, they never ever will. That's something that some people (including here) are going to have to start realizing.




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    Now this is an interesting number given the news over the weekend about Trump's taxes. 73% say he should release them. So for all those here that say "why should he", you are in the minority on this issue.

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    And when asked what it means when he doesn't release his taxes this next set of numbers is not a good for Trump at all. More than half think he is hiding something!

    image.jpeg
     
  2. DrewDaHilp1 macrumors 6502a

    DrewDaHilp1

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  3. Zombie Acorn macrumors 65816

    Zombie Acorn

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    #3
    With the MSM actively working on Clintons campaign it's a wonder she is only 4 points ahead against Trump.

    I imagine he's going to hit hard the last month, Clinton's barrage of negative ads hasn't worked
     
  4. MadeTheSwitch thread starter macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    Later this week there should be some. The polls from the previous week start rolling in on Monday, then usually there are some more released on Tuesday or Wednesday.
     
  5. bent christian Suspended

    bent christian

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  6. samcraig macrumors P6

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    I laugh at the MSM comments.

    I do wonder if it's an actual MSM "issue" - or if it just happens to be that many people simple do not want Trump in the White House.
     
  7. DrewDaHilp1 macrumors 6502a

    DrewDaHilp1

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    Cool. Thanks.
     
  8. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #8
    Media only gives a few percentage point advantage. Maybe five.
     
  9. MadeTheSwitch thread starter macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    What do you think the numbers should show? A 60/30/10 split?
     
  10. Zombie Acorn macrumors 65816

    Zombie Acorn

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    If Biden were tagged in id expect a landslide. She's running against a guy with enough baggage for eight candidates.
     
  11. MadeTheSwitch thread starter macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    I don't think it would be that different. Despite what people say, it really isn't about the candidates. It's about the party and the party platform/ideals. And people are fairly split these days. Everyone goes to their corners and there isn't much margin to work with.
     
  12. bent christian Suspended

    bent christian

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    #12
    Has anyone else noticed the 'Trump 2016'-realted signatures slowly dropping off of peoples' posts the last few months?
     
  13. Jess13 Suspended

    Jess13

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    #13
    The night of the debate, Trump was leading virtually all online polls by huge margins. That is, virtually all polls other than CNN’s online poll. Only CNN’s poll had Hillary way, way up. Clinton News Network.
     
  14. samcraig macrumors P6

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    I follow these: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    Online polls from news networks aren't reliable anyway given how they can be slammed by either party's voters. And Trump's followers care a LOT about polls. Clearly. Trump himself keeps talking about them. He makes it a focus point. Not sure Hillary's team is doing that... are they?
     
  15. MadeTheSwitch thread starter macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    I've noticed some Trump favoring people themselves dropping off the site. Where's Bobby? Where's the guy with Trump's face..forget his name but I think he was from another country. I've seen the avatars changing too.

    And thus begins the rewrite of history. I can hear it now. "Well, I was never that strong of a supporter" or "I never wanted him, I was just yanking your liberal chains" etc. etc. :D
     
  16. bradl macrumors 68040

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    Going to piggyback off of this.

    At this point, I'm going to disregard the Now-Cast, as it won't start to follow the rest of the polling until early November. So let's take the the 77% that 538 is offering, the 84% that HuffPo is showing, and mix that with the 77% the Upshot model is giving, the 72% DailyKos is offering, and the 86% that Princeton is offering and average that out.

    On average, that gives HRC a 79.2% chance of winning. And that is based on the now-cast. Going conservative with Polls-Plus (least odds, at 66.9%; For S & Gs, I'll round down), that gives Clinton a 77% chance.

    And with 36 days to go, the ground is going to get hard to make up.

    BL.
     
  17. MadeTheSwitch thread starter macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    Online polls? LOL
     
  18. ericgtr12 macrumors 6502a

    ericgtr12

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    Yes, can't we all agree that if it's not from an online poll or AM radio that it's bogus?
     
  19. Jess13 Suspended

    Jess13

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    The online polls are not necessarily accurate, I don’t use them as true indication of support. I am only pointing out how CNN was virtually alone among online polls, showing Hillary leading majorly. Clinton News Network.
     
  20. DrewDaHilp1 macrumors 6502a

    DrewDaHilp1

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    #20
    Well I mean. I wouldn't mind at least seeing a poll from a reputable non-biased source.
     
  21. bradl macrumors 68040

    bradl

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    #21
    Perhaps your issue is that you were looking at online polls, for as you've mentioned before, they aren't fairly accurate.

    It was also mentioned that it would take roughly 5 - 7 days for polling to come in based on the performance of the debates. I believe I also mentioned that with the FiveThirtyEight article.

    So perhaps the issue isn't the online polls; instead it is the people who are looking at the online polls.

    BL.
     
  22. bent christian Suspended

    bent christian

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    #22
    "Wooo...cocaine!"

    [​IMG]

    http://i.imgur.com/g739zFH.gifv
     
  23. bradl macrumors 68040

    bradl

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    #23
    Would you call 538 biased?

    BL.
     
  24. zin macrumors 6502

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  25. DrewDaHilp1 macrumors 6502a

    DrewDaHilp1

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    Yes.
     

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