The Scottish & Welsh Assemblies & English Council Elections & AV thread

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Fuzzy14, May 4, 2011.

  1. Fuzzy14 macrumors 65816

    Fuzzy14

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2006
    Location:
    Renfrew, Scotland
    #1
    Surprised this one hasn't been set up yet (I did MRoogle it). Election is tomorrow!

    My predictions are:

    Scotland, SNP to increase their vote but still not have an absolute majority. Labour have been invisible with their campaign. Lib Dems to drop. Tories to increase but probably won't get a first past the post seat.

    Welsh, sorry don't know enough to comment

    English Council, Lib Dems to get a trouncing

    AV referendum, probably a 'no'. Personally I will be voting for it, it's not a perfect system but anything is better than first past the post.
     
  2. Fuzzy14 thread starter macrumors 65816

    Fuzzy14

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    Nov 19, 2006
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    Renfrew, Scotland
  3. Ugg macrumors 68000

    Ugg

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2003
    Location:
    Penryn
    #4
    So the LibDems are out of favor because they gave the Tories too much?
     
  4. remmy macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2007
    #5
    Was wondering when this would come up,

    AV sadly will be rejected, scare tactics and gutter politics wins again.
     
  5. Fuzzy14 thread starter macrumors 65816

    Fuzzy14

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2006
    Location:
    Renfrew, Scotland
    #6
    The no to AV was a negative campaign!
    Perfectly demonstrated by this advert below your post!

    Besides, the BNP thinks that AV will be bad for them. As good an advert for if I ever saw one.
     

    Attached Files:

  6. anim8or macrumors 65816

    anim8or

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2006
    Location:
    Scotland, UK
    #7
    Ok.. Tell me why you think AV is the way to go...??

    When i vote I want the party i vote for in power... The majority vote is the fairest vote.

    AV only dilutes the government even further than it already is?
     
  7. Fuzzy14 thread starter macrumors 65816

    Fuzzy14

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2006
    Location:
    Renfrew, Scotland
    #8
    I'm not saying AV is the best solution, it's got it's flaws, but a vote against AV is a vote to say you are happy with the current first past the post system.

    First past the post is the same system that let George W Bush into power with less votes than Al Gore (source). That's the system that a political party can get 20% of the overall vote but no seats. First past the post is only good for 2 horse races, we are now in the reality of 3 party politics.

    First past the post means your vote only really matters if you happen to live in a couple of key marginal seats. AV means there are no safe seats and your MP has to work for you.

    Governments being formed by receiving just 40% of the votes is not a majority. Governments being 'diluted' by AV is only reflecting the reality of the vote.
     
  8. anim8or macrumors 65816

    anim8or

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    #9
    We all know that George W Bush's entry into power was flawed but that is America, not the UK....

    Democracy has always been about majority voting, the most votes wins, so if 40% is the most then its only fair to allow that party to govern.

    The reality is that many will not think about their secondary or third placed votes properly and we could end up with a government that in reality was voted in by mistake....

    Yes, the current system is flawed but look at the figures globally, only a handful of other countries use AV and some want to get shot of it.
     
  9. anim8or macrumors 65816

    anim8or

    Joined:
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    #10
    All the posters in this thread seem to be for the AV but none have responded with a strong argument for it... Does this tell you something?

    So far in the last few weeks whenever i have been involved with such a conversation no one who has been FOR the AV has argued a strong case, i would love someone to tell me what is so great about it?

    Compare and contrast if you will... I ask this because the advantages of it are just not obvious to me.
     
  10. Mord macrumors G4

    Mord

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2003
    Location:
    UK
    #11
    So, you're saying AV is bad because people are too stupid to get their head around it.....

    Ignoring of course the fact that if you like you can still just vote for one party and one party only, you're not mandated to put all options in order.
     
  11. iStudentUK, May 5, 2011
    Last edited: May 5, 2011

    iStudentUK macrumors 65816

    iStudentUK

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2009
    Location:
    London
    #12
    This is exactly what I have been pondering. I don't like first past the post, but I don't like AV either. So on the one hand, why should I vote for a different system that is no better? On the other hand, if I don't vote for some sort of change will I be stuck with FPTP for the next few decades?

    I'm voting about 5pm, still have not decided!

    I don't think there is a strong argument for AV, but I think there is a good argument against FPTP. Hence my dilemma! Do I vote yes on AV and hope it changes again in a few years, or vote no and hope there is another referendum on changing FPTP to something else in a few years?

    With FPTP you could, in theory, have the party that received the most votes not forming the government. Say you have two parties with a 49% to 51% split, in FPTP the 49% could get most seats and form the government. Not a very fair system!
     
  12. xUKHCx Administrator emeritus

    xUKHCx

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2006
    Location:
    The Kop
    #13
    Yes, by all the posters you are actually only refering to two people. You also only gave them 59 minutes to respond to you.

    I am voting for AV because currently if you happen to not vote for the winner your vote is essentially worthless.

    Say the person you wanted to get in didn't. With the current system that is all you get to say. Under AV say the two runners up are neck and neck and your vote would've split them if you had chosen one of them, but you didn't. With AV you still get a say on that race. Your vote still counts.

    This reduces negative voting because you know your vote still counts.

    You are still able to only vote for one person, if you so wish.


    AV will not make it through though.
     
  13. anim8or macrumors 65816

    anim8or

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    Location:
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    #14
    I think both ways seem to have too many flaws, and like i said earlier many people will not use their alternative votes wisely and I am sure that most people are unaware that they do NOT need to give an alternative.


    Well, i guess we will see how it all goes.... I am working the election tonight so i wont hear the end of it til about 7/8am tomorrow!!!
     
  14. xUKHCx Administrator emeritus

    xUKHCx

    Joined:
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    Location:
    The Kop
    #15
    Both systems have their flaws granted however I feel that AV gives the fairest chance of my vote being counted. I live in a safe seat but do not support the party in charge. My votes have essentially been wasted everytime I have voted. Not only that but it reduces the risk of negative voting. Sure people may not use their second choice wisely but in the current system many people dont use their first :D

    Granted it isn't the system that the Lib Dems wanted to bring in and it isn't something that the Conservatives want either but it is a system that has been used to elect leaders of political parties in the UK (Labour* and the Lib Dems)

    I know that the AV system won't go through this time, however I hope it gains enough support that it is considered again in future. Although I do hope they have the balls to go with AV+ rather than just AV.



    *I know they ended up with the wrong brother but that was due to the unions rather than the voting system.
     
  15. MOFS macrumors 65816

    MOFS

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    Durham, UK
    #16
    How about all 3 of the major parties use it to elect their leaders?
     
  16. Fuzzy14 thread starter macrumors 65816

    Fuzzy14

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2006
    Location:
    Renfrew, Scotland
    #17
    I'll argue all your other points tomorrow when I'm sober, however in the meantime;
    • No to AV 'won'
    • Stunning SNP majority in Scottish Parliament (please take note those who say a majority is impossible in proportional representation)
    • Labour miss Welsh majority by one seat
    • Tories not as bad in English councils
    • Lib Dems trounced everywhere
     

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