The Trump Strategy......

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Herdfan, Feb 2, 2017.

  1. Herdfan macrumors 6502

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    #1
    It seems to me that Trump is playing the crazy left like a fiddle.

    Right now he is doing things that make the left all excited and makes them want to go out and protest, incite violence and burn things. Basically driving them well, crazy.

    But that is not the long game. Instead he is going to keep doing things that rile them up to the point the middle 60% of the country tunes them out. For example today Sarah Silverman stated she would like the military to overthrow Trump.

    https://twitter.com/SarahKSilverman/status/827013945697329152?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

    Now most sane Americans are going to laugh at her dumb ass and think she has lost it. This will keep up with the left saying more and more outrageous things until the rest of the country has tuned them out. It is already happening with the media as their approval and trust are at historic lows.

    So I say keep it up left. You are doing yourself more harm than good.
     
  2. jpietrzak8 macrumors 65816

    jpietrzak8

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    #2
    Doesn't the middle 60% already tune them out? I think the results of last year's campaigning (on both the Republican and Democratic sides) show that the hard Left doesn't have a lot of real traction in this country.
     
  3. Altis macrumors 68020

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    #3
    They do have a ton of influence though, especially in the schools but also in the media.
     
  4. MacNut macrumors Core

    MacNut

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    #4
    I think the majority of the country can't stand Trump. We hear from the vocal left and right. His low approval ratings don't come out of nowhere.
     
  5. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #5
    I think Trump's not playing a long game. Just being reactive.
     
  6. jpietrzak8 macrumors 65816

    jpietrzak8

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    #6
    Not where I live. The Right has tons of control over the schools here, and only national media has any sort of leftward bias.
     
  7. nrvna76 macrumors 6502

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    #7
    Well I don't know if that's true. Just because they may not have voted for him doesn't mean they can't stand him. And, is the verdict that we are believing polls now or not..?
     
  8. jpietrzak8 macrumors 65816

    jpietrzak8

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    #8
    Never stopped believing them. The commentators who talked about the polls, sure, they were dead wrong in their assessment of who was going to win; but then, they have no clue how to read statistics.

    On the final days of the election, fivethirtyeight.com was showing the polling to be about 60% Clinton - 40% Trump. Which is darn close to a coin toss, in fact. And it was an extremely close election in the end. So the polls were actually right on; it was the dummies reading the polls and then writing columns saying "Clinton will surely win" who were way off.
     
  9. nrvna76 macrumors 6502

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    #9
    Are you talking about a national poll? Plus, I disagree that 60/40 in any context is a cointoss.
     
  10. jpietrzak8 macrumors 65816

    jpietrzak8

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    #10
    Hmm. Here, how about we make it 66% vs. 33% (i.e., two thirds vs. one third). Now, roll a (six-sided) die. If it comes up 1 or 2, Trump wins; if it comes up 3, 4, 5, or 6, Clinton wins.

    I think you'll find that Trump wins quite a lot of the time; in fact, he should win about 1/3 of the time.

    This is what statistics gives you -- a percentage chance of who has more support, not an actual value of support. A poll that says 60% Clinton, 40% Trump means that there is a 40% chance that Trump has more support than Clinton does, not that Clinton actually has 20% more support than Trump. Almost no poll ever showed the raw Clinton numbers ahead of the raw Trump numbers by more than a single digit, and usually the advantage was in the low single digits.
     
  11. MacNut macrumors Core

    MacNut

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    #11
    http://www.usnews.com/news/the-run-...14/the-10-closest-states-in-the-2016-election

    1. Michigan 0.3 percent

    Trump 47.6 percent, Clinton 47.3 percent

    Difference: 13,080 votes

    2. New Hampshire 0.4 percent

    Clinton 47.6 percent, Trump 47.2 percent

    Difference: 2,701 votes

    3. Wisconsin 1 percent

    Trump 47.9 percent, Clinton 46.9 percent

    Difference: 27,257 votes

    4. Pennsylvania 1.2 percent

    Trump 48.8 percent, Clinton 47.6 percent

    Difference: 68,236 votes (99 percent reporting)

    5. Florida 1.2 percent

    Trump 49 percent, Clinton 47.8 percent

    Difference: 114,455 votes

    6. Minnesota 1.5 percent

    Clinton 46.4 percent, Trump 44.9 percent

    Difference: 44,470 votes

    7. Nevada 2.4 percent

    Clinton 47.9 percent, Trump 45.5 percent

    Difference: 26,434 votes

    8. Maine 2.7 percent

    Clinton 47.9 percent, Trump 45.2 percent

    Difference: 19,995 votes

    9. North Carolina 3.8 percent

    Trump 49.9 percent, Clinton 46.1 percent

    Difference: 177,009 votes

    10. Arizona 3.9 percent

    Trump 49.3 percent, Clinton 45.4 percent

    Difference: 91,682 votes
     
  12. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #12
    Pretty much the case here although it has started to get nibbled at. The schoolboards are mostly populatd by conservative Republican Protestants. From public pressure, however, there are at least now a few "amenities" like guidance counselors who can steer kids away from the idea of running Dad's small dairy farm instead of going to college. And they have imported educators for prevention of drug and alcohol abuse, and tobacco use. Now if they would just crack down on people who let their kids plaster confederate flags all over their trucks and backpacks... ;) We're at the northern end of Appalachia but you wouldn't know it from some of those trucks.
     
  13. nrvna76 macrumors 6502

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    #13
    That is not what election polling is. They sample the public (omitting political party at the moment) and they take down the actual results and they feel if the sample size is big enough you can extrapolate to the larger population. It is not statistics. It's meant to be a snapshot of public opinion.
    --- Post Merged, Feb 2, 2017 ---
    Not sure how this reflects polling?
     
  14. LIVEFRMNYC macrumors 603

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    #14
    Trump thinks he's playing SIMS POTUS Edition.
     
  15. Altis macrumors 68020

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    #15
    I'm mostly referring to colleges and universities, though we're seeing more grade-school teachers preaching radical ideas.

    Quite interesting to see the result of political spectrum of faculty. It's very steeply to one side, where even the fringe left parties (Green) are more supported than the Republicans.
     
  16. Herdfan thread starter macrumors 6502

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  17. jpietrzak8 macrumors 65816

    jpietrzak8

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    #17
    Actually, that is exactly what statistics is. It is the branch of science where you analyze a particular "population" by taking a "sample" of it, and then extrapolating from that sample to describe properties of the population as a whole.

    And, that is exactly what pollsters do: they collect a sample of views, and then use that sample to describe the entire population.

    A "sample" will never tell you exactly what the population as a whole actually thinks; but, if it is a "representative" sample, it can have properties similar to the whole. And yeah, the larger the sample size compared to the whole population, the better it will reflect that population.

    But in any case, the process of mapping the properties of a sample onto the whole population is what statistics is all about...
    --- Post Merged, Feb 2, 2017 ---
    Oh, at this point, both parties are "permanent outrage" parties. The Tea Party showed just how effective a permanent "they are the enemy" pose can be; it only makes sense that the other side now join in this policy as well.

    We won't see the return of level-headed politics until the people of the country start to value level-headed politics. And that probably won't happen until the government becomes so unglued that normal folks can no longer just sit on their couches, eating popcorn and enjoying the show. It'll take a government that actually starts causing direct harm before good government becomes of value once again...
     
  18. unlinked macrumors 6502a

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    #18
    I read an interesting article this morning about how Trump was following the tactics Scott Walker used in Wisconsin.
    Basically the democrats get all riled up , raise lots of money , achieve nothing and then loose seats.
    Can't seem to find it again online now.
     
  19. LizKat macrumors 68040

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    #19
    LOL that's because we took it down as it was a loser so we're revising the plan.
     
  20. mobilehaathi macrumors G3

    mobilehaathi

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    #20
    You're right. Those damn commies are teaching our kids how to read, and everyone knows that reading books is correlated with dangerous left-wing ideas.
     
  21. samcraig macrumors P6

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    #21
    LOLz. I think you guys mean Bannon's strategy.
     
  22. Altis macrumors 68020

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    #22
    Is that what I said? No.

    Just felt like attacking someone, I suppose?
     
  23. mobilehaathi macrumors G3

    mobilehaathi

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    #23
    I neither attributed what I wrote to you nor attacked you. You're awfully sensitive.
     
  24. Snoopy4 macrumors 6502a

    Snoopy4

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    #24
    He's done more damage to the left in the last week than any Republican candidate since Reagan. It's epic.
     
  25. samcraig macrumors P6

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    #25
    You know when Coca-Cola introduced New Coke and took away the supply of regular coke. The public went crazy and their marketshare started to tank. They scaled back New Coke and put regular Coke back on the market and saw surges beyond their original share. Many people conjectured if they did it on purpose to drive up pent demand. When asked about that strategy, the President and COO Donald Keough said: "Some critics will say Coca-Cola made a marketing mistake. Some cynics will say that we planned the whole thing. The truth is we are not that dumb, and we are not that smart."

    That sums up Trump to me.
     

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