Theresa May to seek early election


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macrumors 6502a
Jul 12, 2010
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Time to lock in the 20% lead the conservatives have in opinion polls I guess.
Iirc even most labour voters think she will be a better PM than Corbyn.


 
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Scepticalscribe

macrumors Sandy Bridge
Jul 29, 2008
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"Events, dear boy events..."
I have long loved that quote, and must admit unflappable urbanity of Harold Macmillan makes him an attractive Tory in my eyes.

Well the good news - for everyone - is that after the elections Corbyn will be history.
I am not an expert on British politics but he's an awful politician.
While the right wing Tories are uniquely nasty and downright appalling, and some of the rest of the party has more than its fair share of shamelessly unprincipled, unscrupulous charlatans (yes, Foreign Secretary), under Mr Corby, the Labour Party is an embarrassment. And has been a singularly awful opposition, failing to hod the government to account, and failing to model itself effectively as an alternative government.

And I write as someone who usually votes Labour.

This may turn out to be one of those elections (and it would be dreadful for Britain if it did) where the opposition gets annihilated rather than the government gets to be put under serious scrutiny.
 
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bandrews

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Jul 18, 2008
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It's a wise move by her. It's almost impossible to second guess elections these days but I think it's quite obvious that despite their flaws, there is no credible alternative to the Conservatives right now.
To vote in a Conservative majority again would silence calls that May is not an "elected leader", would reinforce the referendum result and hit Labour hard.
I have long loved that quote, and must admit unflappable urbanity of Harold Macmillan makes him an attractive Tory in my eyes.



While the right wing Tories are uniquely nasty and downright appalling, and some of the rest of the party has more than its fair share of shamelessly unprincipled, unscrupulous charlatans (yes, Foreign Secretary), under Mr Corby, the Labour Party is an embarrassment. And has been a singularly awful opposition, failing to hod the government to account, and failing to model itself effectively as an alternative government.

And I write as someone who usually votes Labour.

This may turn out to be one of those elections (and it would be dreadful for Britain if it did) where the opposition gets annihilated rather than the government gets to be put under serious scrutiny.
The sad fact for the Labour party is that there hasn't been a Labour government in nearly 40 years that wasn't "Tory-light". There is such a wide gap between union ideals and the Blairite champagne socialists that unless the party splits in two or agrees to all pull in the same direction, they will be doomed to an eternity of in-fighting, back-stabbing and shadow cabinet reshuffling to allow the Conservatives free reign.
 

takao

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Dec 25, 2003
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good choice from Tory perspective but on the other side with a running clock on the brexit talks i think it splits the attention of the UK politicians too much for 3 months.
UK politics still in turmoil

edit:
on the other side what if SNP and Lib Dems get enough seats to prevent a tory majority ? it would literally throw the UK into a deadlock
 

sim667

macrumors 65816
Dec 7, 2010
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Well the good news - for everyone - is that after the elections Corbyn will be history.
I am not an expert on British politics but he's an awful politician.
I wouldn't say he's awful...... but he's much better suited to grass roots and long game politics, than opposition politics.
 

Eraserhead

macrumors G4
Nov 3, 2005
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While innumerate people may well claim it's a second referendum it is far from that. A vote for Labour and the Tories isn't a vote for or against Brexit. And the Tories will be unlikely to hit 50%. Perhaps them and UKIP might.
[doublepost=1492516374][/doublepost]
Time to lock in the 20% lead the conservatives have in opinion polls I guess.
Iirc even most labour voters think she will be a better PM than Corbyn.


36% don't knows is massive.
 
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bandrews

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Jul 18, 2008
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If Corbyn had any competence he'd insist on waiting.
If he had any competence he'd step aside. The only people who will vote Corbyn are union members and communists. Labour need to appeal to a much broader section of the electorate than that. If they don't want to live an eternity in opposition they really need to regain some centre ground, not constantly pander to the far left.
 

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Eraserhead

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Seems fairly consistently high for YouGov. The Observer polls give neither as an option and most of the don't know go to that. To some degree in an election people need to decide and it isn't likely all the don't knows will convert to Corbyn.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Preferred_Prime_Minister_polling
Oh that's highly unlikely. Still I'd expect the don't knows to be about 10% and most of the rest to go for either Corbyn or May.
 

steve23094

macrumors 68030
Apr 23, 2013
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Apparently two-thirds of parliament need to vote for an early election. Any chance they wont?
Before today Labour has already said they would vote for an early election. The majority of Labour MPs don't support Corbyn so they will see it as their chance to get rid of him. They will think they're due to lose a lot of seats which will make his position after the election untenable.
[doublepost=1492519740][/doublepost]
edit:
on the other side what if SNP and Lib Dems get enough seats to prevent a tory majority ? it would literally throw the UK into a deadlock
The SNP can't win many more seats, they already have 56 of 59. So no credible difference there.

The Lib Dems will probably pick up a few more seats in the SW but they're coming from an absurdly low base. They're more likely to split the Labour vote than Tory. This could very well help the Tories pinch a couple of seats off Labour so the net result is not likely to help anti-Brexit voters much.

The Conservatives will be returned to Government with an increased majority.
[doublepost=1492520218][/doublepost]
May also seems to be trying to rush this through before any investigation into her party's illegal election expenses is concluded...

IIRC there's about 20 Conservative MP's facing criminal charges currently

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/mar/23/conservative-election-scandal-victory-2015-expenses
They're facing investigation not charges. That's a pretty big difference. They're probably guilty at least as far as the spirit of the law is concerned. The problem is that the CPS has to prove a breach of the letter of the law. I believe in this case it requires 'knowingly' committing the offence, so everyone will just plead ignorance. Unless police can find a smoking gun (such as emails) everybody will walk.

You know how these things work, just like bankers nobody ever gets found guilty.
 
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0098386

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Jan 18, 2005
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This is so exciting! the 4 options;

1- Tories remain in power. Brexit continues in a confusing way.

2- Lib dems in power. Tim Farron walks up on stage, all he says is they'll remain in the EU, walks away from the mic. All remain voters mindlessly vote for him and jobs a good un.

3- Corbyn wins. But "the people have spoken" and brexit continues. Though we now have a compassionate party as the UK gets its independent powers back.

4- Corbyn wins. But "on reflection brexit is bad" and it gets stopped.

Simples.
 

NeilHD

macrumors regular
Jul 24, 2014
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As a lifelong Conservative voter, there is a snowballs chance in hell of me voting for them this time around.

90% because of Brexit, and 10% because I don't like Teresa May and her privacy-invading ways.

There's a less than zero chance of me voting for Labour, obviously.

So I guess Lib Dems it is. I expect they'll get a pretty big pickup from the Remain vote. Those that deserted them last time around will probably come flooding back and they will likely pick up a few new ones along the way, like me. If they should get in, then the TM will probably go, we'll get someone new in the Tories and in the next election when this whole Brexit disaster has gone I can switch back.

#pipedreams.
 

The-Real-Deal82

macrumors 604
Jan 17, 2013
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It's a shrewd move by May. Corbyn is weak and labour are the most divided as a party in years. May is just going through the motions for the next step. So far I think she's done a pretty good job, nothing overly hard or controversial. She's certainly the strongest character currently available.
 

zin

macrumors 6502
Original poster
May 5, 2010
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I won't be voting Labour. I cannot support such utter incompetence.

Somebody should really create a new party that occupies the radical centre. Instead, in this two-party system, we get a choice between a woman whose fetish is gaining access to the last 12 months of my web history and a man who wants to turn Britain into Venezuela.

Is this the best we can do? Where are all the smart, tough people?