Think there is no Democrat momentum? Think again.

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by MadeTheSwitch, Jul 25, 2017.

  1. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #1
    So Rachel Maddow had a very interesting story last night looking at historical trends and the activity around election runs for house seats. Watch it and see what you think:

    http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/...tic-challengers-for-house-seats-1008078915987


    IMG_4022.jpg
     
  2. TonyC28 macrumors 65816

    TonyC28

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    #2
    I have not looked at any previous data so this statement is completely off the top of my head, but here goes: duh! Isn't this the most obvious time in the history of American politics (not exaggerating) for the opposition party to do everything they possibly can?
     
  3. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #3
    Yeah in my district there were Dems signing up to challenge the GOP winner 37 days before he even took his oath of office. Now they are 8 in total, I believe. The piece cited below regarding party registrations in the district is about a month old. Apparently this will be one of the most expensive House races in 2018, Dems determined to take it, GOP to hang on. The district has flipped a few times since the 90s. In my piece of the district, which is huge, it's mostly red but over in the Hudson valley towns it's purple shading blue.

    State voter rolls from April 2017 show that enrolled Democrats had a slight edge over Republicans in the district (150,122 to 147,553).

    But the third-largest voting bloc in the district were the 124,722 unenrolled voters, while the state Independence Party made up 28,468 voters and right-leaning Conservative Party voters accounted for 11,267.

    http://www.recordonline.com/news/20...19th-district-seat-in-2018-already-heating-up
     
  4. MadeTheSwitch thread starter macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #4
    Sure. But look at the numbers. Far far above historical precedent. I find that interesting.
     
  5. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

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  6. MadeTheSwitch thread starter macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #6
    You don't seem to understand the story. Try again. Go watch the video.
     
  7. unlinked macrumors 6502a

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    #7
    Decent sized swing from 2012 to 2016 presidential votes in your district (although it was pretty solid R before Obama). 15.5% towards Trump. Wonder how much it will swing back.
     
  8. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #8
    So hard to say in purple districts... but Faso only beat Teachout by 4% and she's not just a Dem but an unabashed progressive. Perhaps not too surprising in a populist moment. Faso's working very very very hard in the district like his retired predecessor Gibson(R) before him, but he's having a harder time on account of health care, and, increasingly, Trump being seen as unpresidential, or even visible. They didn't like Obama here either but Obama wasn't on the front page all the time. Trump's on the front page and even the red voters are rolling their eyes. The redder parts of the district really don't like federal government anyway, so it's best for both parties when what's on the front page of the paper is stuff like stats on how many hunters or fisherman are up here to kick off a season...

    There's a big Bible Belt factor in the district in a number of counties, so there was some serious nose holding going on in the district to help register popular support for Donald Trump (and they knew Clinton was going to take NYS electoral votes but they turned out anyway). To the extent Trump now reminds any of those voters of his character flaws or flip flops on swamp draining, he makes it even harder for Congressman Faso to keep from getting swept out of office over disappointment in how things are working out overall.
     
  9. SLC Flyfishing Suspended

    SLC Flyfishing

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    #9
    Historical numbers of democrats lining up to not be elected.

    Momentum? I suppose. But not the momentum you guys need.
     
  10. MadeTheSwitch thread starter macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #10
    Maybe. Maybe not. I hate to quote Trump but "time will tell".
     
  11. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #11
    You could be right. But, I doubt it. The Republicans have gone rage-blind to logic in their determination to somehow erase Obama from the history books.

    The revulsion of voters over the spectacle of a GOP majority government being unable (or playing at being unable) to fix an ACA that Americans want fixed rather than repealed is a pretty compelling reason to sweep the House out in 2018. Around here people don't like the federal government anyway. It doesn't bother them to flip out a GOP guy or a Democrat either if it's pretty clear we paid a fat salary (by our standards) to somebody couldn't get the job done.

    If the voters do clean house in 2018, probably also denting the Senates's one time bright hopes to expand their majority, then who knows what that does to the chances of Trump (or Pence) in 2020.

    Of course it mattters whom the Dems pick as a prez candidate next time. But not as much as it matters right now that the GOP has a lock on the White House and both houses of Congress and like a dog in the manger won't eat the grain it has in hand, nor share it either. The Democrats could help them make ACA functional and affordable. But, that tax cut for the top tier would probably fall down and die. So, no ACA fix. Way late budget. A timid tax cut. And, looking forward to the debt ceiling debate after all that good will gone under the bridge.

    Almost finished a post without mentioning Donald Trump. How he figures in the above is unknown, right? But he has not helped pass health care in pressuring and half-threatening Senators. People don't mind being grabbed up by the lapels in a one on one with a prez behind closed doors. There's some give and take, some explanations, some pleading, some pushback, maybe an agreement. The way Trump does it, he just hangs the guy out to dry on Twitter. And then he tells McConnell it's the leadership's fault because he Trump is ready to sign whatever those guys bring. After having told them the House bill was mean... what are the people to make of this man? Let's see the Dem pick for 2020. Won't have Clinton to kick around.
     
  12. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #12
    Swing of 15 percentage points so far across the special elections. And if you exclude CT where they have a very unpopular Democratic governor it's 19 points.
     
  13. curmudgeonette macrumors 6502

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    #13
    Oh, so just like 2016 when a record number (in recent history?) of republicans lined up to have all but one not be elected?
     
  14. Gutwrench Suspended

    Gutwrench

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    #14
    I truly hope they do build momentum because a weak Democratic Party is not good for Americans. And while they're looking for momentum they might also look for a platform starting with a strong coherent unifying message.
     
  15. jpietrzak8 macrumors 65816

    jpietrzak8

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    #15
    Honestly, I've gotten kind of tired of strong, coherent unifying messages. Mainly, because they always seem to be oversimplified platitudes from the far left or far right. We could really do with less message and more "good government".
     
  16. LIVEFRMNYC macrumors 603

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    #16
    This is an unprecedented wacky era. The only momentums I believe in is, how fast can the Reps destroy themselves and how many Dem voters ACTUALLY go to the voting booths.
     
  17. Gutwrench Suspended

    Gutwrench

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    #17
    And we saw just how well that worked out for the Democratic Party in 2016.
     
  18. zin macrumors 6502

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    #18
    The DNC has $7.5 million cash on hand and $3.3 million of debt. They started with $10.5 million cash on hand on January 1, 2017. The RNC has $44.7 million cash on hand and $0 of debt. They started with $25.3 million on January 1, 2017. The DNC has had their worst fundraising months every month of this year for at least the last ten years.

    Just to add some perspective to Rachel Maddow's big build up.
     
  19. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #19
    Man we gotta leave that election in the dust. "How many etc etc, ... the answer is blowin' in the wind." You know that too. They had a message in 2016 but it was carried by a flawed messenger. That fact obscured the fact that being messaged doesn't cut it any more for the objects of Democrats' desire. Those voters want jobs, they got messages about how we're gonna cut the banks down to size (spoken by the lady who lunches w/ GS, c'mon, the optics were terrible on that score, should have let Warren carry that pail of water by herself).

    We said what we were against, not what we were for, Pelosi and Schumer got that right, but what we are for is... what we were for the last 12 years and counting while we moved right in the Congress to meet the reality on the ground.

    What was that reality? The Republicans had a better focus and operation at grass roots for state and local offices since the 90s. The Dems had great field offices for a presidential race by HRC ever since 2008 when she lost the primaries to Obama. Big whoop.

    Throw in Donald Trump, in a season when both right and left populists had it up to here.

    So... so... hmm... when you got no bench and your message is out of sync with what you can get done, and then you lay all that on the shoulders of a possibly hesitant candidate for President who is being urged to run because she is... a STAR... and the field is revved up for her (and as it turned out, so is 99% of the DNC) then it can end up not mattering that Sanders even ran, nor that she's competent and more than qualified than Trump to manage the job she applied for. She was toast. And that was before the far right kicked in with their prose poems of hatred and hyperbole over her sins.
     
  20. MadeTheSwitch thread starter macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #20
    Irrelevant. Most see the DNC as a crappy organization, including me. That doesn't mean people still don't vote for democrats. I have never given a single penny to either the DNC nor RNC. Yet I have voted for members of both parties before.
     
  21. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #21
    Money in politics is pretty weird. You can buy a seat in a good year, and you can throw a lot of money down a hole and lose it in a bad year. 2018 looks like going to be a bad year for the Republicans and the Dems may not have to spend a lot to stay even to where they are now and can focus on challenging GOP seats gone weak over health care.

    Nonetheless I know a lot of progressives including me who are sitting on their wallets ever since Clinton popped up with that umbrella PAC she brightly anounced as sponsoring four progressive PACs. I just thought ok nice to know I ain't dropping a dime on any PAC and might pitch in ten bucks a pop to individual progressives when I see who they are and where they are running. I admit to feeling burned by the DNC putting in Perez and a sop to the progressives by making Ellison a co chair. I am not over that yet. And I really tire of seeing money to candidates flowing up the chain to the national committee and not coming back down to SOME more local office instead of sticking to the top tier effort. Both parties do that but to populists and progressives it is pretty annoying because we need to win at legislative levels.

    Seriously why can't we have candidates post position statements on a web site, every body read what they want to of the stuff, make up their minds, email in questions, see posted answers to composites of those, have a few debates and in two months time or so, just hold the election.
     
  22. Zenithal macrumors 68040

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    #22
    Who are you and what have you done to ol' Guttles? :eek:


    P.S. Did you ever end up finding a decent tritip?
     
  23. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #23
    He was hijacked by Renzatic..
     
  24. SLC Flyfishing Suspended

    SLC Flyfishing

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    #24
    Ha ha, way to obfuscate the point.
     
  25. Huntn macrumors G5

    Huntn

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    #25
    I had to verify that unenrolled equals independent, registered to vote but not enrolled/associated with a registered Political Party. :)
     

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