Think about it: 1) 16 months is a long time just to end up experiencing manufacturing delays. 2) Apple knows that an iPhone with "antennagate" history for another year will be a failure in sales unless it is heavily discounted. 3) Apple knows people would rather have an aluminum body iPhone than a glass one that broke so much for people last year and will not buy another glass phone unless it is heavily discounted. Simply put, this is a bluff by Apple. The more people believe that an iPhone 4S is coming out, the more the clueless segment of the consumer base will read those stories and say: "oh I might as well just buy now". 4's get sold to the max, and the enlightened among us will buy the 5 in record numbers, while the 4S gets sold for $299 without contract to fill the niche as the "budget phone" that will be given for free if subsidized with a contract. It will be a basic device without "premium features" that lets adults and kids use it as a prepaid calling device and music player, likely to have a plastic back instead of a glass one. The iPhone 5 will be the one with bigger screen, aluminum back, 8 meg camera, etc and it will definitely be here in time for the holidays. Apple has way too much money as the biggest company in the world to experience any more delays after they've already delayed the phone 3 months behind their usual June release. My 2 cents.