Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2005

Doctor Q

Administrator
Original poster
Staff member
Sep 19, 2002
36,039
3,251
Los Angeles
It's time once again to play with MacRumors Top 50 Poster numbers.

The previous Top 50 Posters Extrapolated threads were July 2003, January 2004, and July 2004.

The legend of column headings follows the chart. Comments and further explanations follow in the next post.

The results are only estimates because members change their rate of posting, current members will join the list or drop out, and new members will appear. Posts counts reflect post counts as shown by the forum software, which excludes posts from certain forums. I've computed these numbers just for fun and to be a point of discussion. Members should not post just to achieve a high post count. Pointless posts (spam) are against forum rules.

Current Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q on January 4, 2005


Code:
                      Cur    Cur    Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts  Rate   Rank  Rank
----  --------------  -----  -----  ----  -----
  1   Mr. Anderson   18,433   9.07    1     0
  2   eyelikeart     12,115   0.06    2     0
  3   wdlove         11,425  14.30    4    +1
  4   Rower_CPU      10,344   3.53    3    -1
  5   edesignuk       7,776  14.99   13    +8
  6   jefhatfield     7,334   2.93    8    +2
  7   MacBandit       7,273   1.22    6    -1
  8   jelloshotsrule  7,054   0.16    7    -1
  9   MrMacman        6,861   0.81    9     0
 10   bousozoku       6,018   6.69   16    +6
 11   Doctor Q        5,929  10.15   20    +9
 12   arn             5,421   0.12   10    -2
 13   iJon            5,403   3.04   15    +2
 14   shadowfax       5,401   0.15   11    -3
 15   scem0           5,326   1.81   14    -1
 16   Sun Baked       5,194   6.82   23    +7
 17   vniow           4,767   0.84   17     0
 18   paulwhannel     4,643   2.45   19    +1
 19   AlphaTech       4,562   0.00   18    -1
 20   iGAV            4,485   3.89   25    +5
 21   krossfyter      4,137   0.47   21     0
 22   Backtothemac    4,070   0.15   22     0
 23   Powerbook G5    3,950   0.36   24    +1
 24   Nermal          3,889   6.19   32    +8
 25   jxyama          3,565   4.72   34    +9
Code:
                      Cur    Cur    Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts  Rate   Rank  Rank
----  --------------  -----  -----  ----  -----
 26   cb911           3,449   3.14   30    +4
 27   jsw             3,414  11.65   --    --
 28   job             3,396   0.16   26    -2
 29   teabgs          3,307   0.22   27    -2
 30   Durandal7       3,164   0.10   28    -2
 31   wrldwzrd89      3,150  10.66   --    --
 32   mac15           3,028   0.06   29    -3
 33   Dont Hurt Me    2,988   1.14   31    -2
 34   Counterfit      2,965   4.44   42    +8
 35   stoid           2,946   6.11   --    --
 36   ~Shard~         2,897   8.11   --    --
 37   Abstract        2,892   8.28   --    --
 38   virividox       2,842   4.67   47    +9
 39   mischief        2,766   0.39   35    -4
 40   Kwyjibo         2,756   1.35   36    -4
 41   britboy         2,709   0.03   33    -8
 42   übergeek        2,671   1.47   37    -5
 43   Mudbug          2,661   4.41   --    --
 44   Chip NoVaMac    2,563   6.85   --    --
 45   MacAztec        2,500   0.62   38    -7
 46   applemacdude    2,473   2.76   50    +4
 47   Macmaniac       2,441   2.53   49    +2
 48   Hemingray       2,381   1.33   43    -5
 49   aswitcher       2,320   4.20   --    --
 50   bennetsaysargh  2,258   0.47   40   -10
Columns:
  1. Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
  2. Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
  3. Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
  4. Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months, or for the length of their membership, whichever is smaller.
  5. Prev Rank = previous rank, as of six months ago (July 2004), or "--" for those who are new to the Top 50.
  6. Delta Rank = change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago.
 

Doctor Q

Administrator
Original poster
Staff member
Sep 19, 2002
36,039
3,251
Los Angeles
Changes this year

This year I instituted a few changes:

1. In previous years, I tried to get all the information into a single chart. This year, I am splitting the information into three charts, one for the current Top 50 Posters (posted above), one for the projected Top 50 Posters in 6 months (July 2005), and one for the projected Top 50 Posters at the "end of time" (the limit as time goes to infinity).

The first chart is in the previous post. I will post the next chart tomorrow after I finish analyzing and formatting it.

2. The chart above uses "code" tags to get the proper formatting, and I split it in two (1-25 and 26-50) so you can see it all in one post. I think this looks better than as a single code chart, where you'd get a scrollbar, or with the Courier font with inserted periods for spacing that I used the previous times.

3. Members Macrumors and MacBytes, who represent site posts, not real members, are excluded from my computations. As in the past, members who were banned or are no longer registered are also excluded. Member AlphaTech is still registered and is therefore included, even though he no longer posts.

4. The 6-month projections are based on post rates over the last 6 months. Long-time members who have been consistent posters over the long-term but have been missing recently (eyelikeart comes to mind) suffer under this system, but I think the reverse case, members who lurked for a while before settling in at a fairly constant post rate, are more numerous, and they will get more accurate estiamtes this way.

5. I am adding Previous Rank and Delta Rank columns for the 6-month projections and end-of-time projections, so we can see how members have changed in those rankings.


Comments on the Current Top 50 Posters chart

--- Length of membership ---

Mean average: 31.5 months
Standard deviation: 9.9 months

Highest: jefhatfield, 53.8 months
Second-highest: eyelikeart, 48.0 months
Second-lowest: Chip NoVaMac, 12.3 months
Lowest: jsw, 9.6 months

Number of members in the Top 50 by length of membership:
over 4 years: 2 members
between 3 and 4 years: 13 members
between 2 and 3 years: 25 members
between 1 and 2 years: 9 members
less than 1 year: 1 member

--- Changed members ---

Eight new members joined the Top 50 list:
jsw, wrldwzrd89, stoid, ~Shard~, Abstract, Mudbug, Chip NoVaMac, aswitcher

Eight members are no longer in the Top 50 list:
Macrumors, King Cobra, Beej, sparkleytone, alex_ant, mnkeybsness, G4scott, mymemory

Missed the Top 50 list by 3 posts: Beej

--- Changes in rank ---

Highest rise in rank, each up 9 slots:
Doctor Q, jxyama, virividox

Next highest, each up 8 slots:
edesignuk, Nermal, Counterfit

Highest loss in rank, down 10 slots and just barely staying in the Top 50:
bennetsaysargh

Next highest, down 8 slots but still at slot 41:
britboy

Six members managed to retain their position in the Top 50 list:
Mr. Anderson (1), eyelikeart (2), MrMacman (9), vniow (17), krossfyter (21), Backtothemac (22)

--- Excluded members ---

1. Macrumors is excluded and would have been 6th.

2. King Cobra left with 5,622 posts and would have been 13th.

3. tazo left with 3,202 posts and would have been 32nd.

4. MacBytes is excluded but wouldn't have made the Top 50 anyway.

Note: If you want to discuss former members, do it elsewhere; this thread is for other purposes.

--- Posts ---

Highest number of posts in 6 months: edesignuk, with 2,759

Second-highest: wdlove, with 2,631, who edged out Rower_CPU for slot #3 a few months ago.

Lowest: AlphaTech, with no posts since April 2003, yet ranked only one slot below 6 months ago!

Second-lowest: britboy, barely active with 5 posts
 

edesignuk

Moderator emeritus
Mar 25, 2002
19,077
1
London, England
Doctor Q said:
Highest number of posts in 6 months: edesignuk, with 2,759
??? no, it couldn't be, I'm a responsible member of the community...


edit: evidently, I really should do some actual work while at work...hmmm...best get on with it.
 

gwuMACaddict

macrumors 68040
Apr 21, 2003
3,124
0
washington dc
crikey... just when i think i'm getting close to cracking some sort of posting list... i had forgotten that kingcobra and tazo left... :eek: neat to see who has been here for 3+ years though
 

jsw

Moderator emeritus
Mar 16, 2004
22,817
37
Andover, MA
edesignuk said:
??? no, it couldn't be, I'm a responsible member of the community...


edit: evidently, I really should do some actual work while at work...hmmm...best get on with it.
Seriously, man. Those of us with real lives would never come close to that number of posts. ;)
 

PlaceofDis

macrumors Core
Jan 6, 2004
19,232
4
i think im in the top 150, go me! haha

wow e, you really need to get a life, or hope that your stalker thread doesnt get closed down, you would probably lose a lot of posts from that one
 

Wyvernspirit

macrumors 6502a
Jul 23, 2002
712
21
Massachusetts
Yeah!

I love these Doctor Q.

How about the top 50 rate of posts during the past 6 months and maybe chage +/- from previous 6 months.

Or do a break down like this: Top 50 posters who signed up during a particular time (to make it easy, by year or month or, if very ambitious, by month and year) and compare. ;)

I can come up with more if you like. :)
 

Mr. Anderson

Moderator emeritus
Nov 1, 2001
22,407
0
VA
Interesting trends here....

Looking forward to the graphs :D

Lots of big movers this time, too....

D
 

OutThere

macrumors 603
Dec 19, 2002
5,730
0
NYC
My posting is very much affected by how much work I have, and when I have time off, big peaks arise during time off. :D
 

Blue Velvet

Moderator emeritus
Jul 4, 2004
21,652
123
OutThere761 said:
My posting is very much affected by how much work I have, and when I have time off, big peaks arise during time off. :D
You too, huh?
It's MR cold turkey next week for me... what's a girl to do?
 

jsw

Moderator emeritus
Mar 16, 2004
22,817
37
Andover, MA
Blue Velvet said:
You too, huh?
It's MR cold turkey next week for me... what's a girl to do?
Excellent! Now I have time to set up my mournful "we miss Blue Velvet" thread, as well as my "who is Blue Velvet really?" thread, both of which might top 500 posts before you return!

*** eagerly rubs hands, anticipating mid-year post ranking by Doctor Q ***

:D
 

Blue Velvet

Moderator emeritus
Jul 4, 2004
21,652
123
jsw said:
Excellent! Now I have time to set up my mournful "we miss Blue Velvet" thread, as well as my "who is Blue Velvet really?" thread, both of which might top 500 posts before you return!

*** eagerly rubs hands, anticipating mid-year post ranking by Doctor Q ***

:D
LOL :D

However, to be completely honest. A "Who is Blue Velvet really?" thread would not be appreciated and would provoke a moody sulk after I throw my toys from the pram... :eek: :)
 

jsw

Moderator emeritus
Mar 16, 2004
22,817
37
Andover, MA
Blue Velvet said:
LOL :D

However, to be completely honest. A "Who is Blue Velvet really?" thread would not be appreciated and would provoke a moody sulk after I throw my toys from the pram... :eek: :)
Well, I wasn't looking forward to OutThere761 posting an image of your head attached to a horse's body anyway. ;)
 

OutThere

macrumors 603
Dec 19, 2002
5,730
0
NYC
jsw said:
Well, I wasn't looking forward to OutThere761 posting an image of your head attached to a horse's body anyway. ;)
It's my specialty! If you would like one made you just have to post your pic in the image gallery! ;)
 
I can't wait to see where you think people will end up. Its interesting because some of these people climbed the charts very fast, and now some of them barely post anymore. I would be curious to see the top 50 oldest posters, and to see who has the highest post counts:) I love these stats threads:)
Oh and tomorrow will be my birthday on Macrumors, 4 years:)
 

Doctor Q

Administrator
Original poster
Staff member
Sep 19, 2002
36,039
3,251
Los Angeles
6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q on January 4, 2005

Code:
Proj  Projection      Proj   Curr  Delta
Rank  July 4, 2005    Posts  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  -----  ----  -----
  1   Mr. Anderson   20,083    1     0
  2   wdlove         14,027    3    +1
  3   eyelikeart     12,126    2    -1
  4   Rower_CPU      10,987    4     0
  5   edesignuk      10,505    5     0
  6   jefhatfield     7,867    6     0
  7   Doctor Q        7,776   11    +4
  8   MacBandit       7,496    7    -1
  9   bousozoku       7,236   10    +1
 10   jelloshotsrule  7,083    8    -2
 11   MrMacman        7,008    9    -2
 12   Sun Baked       6,434   16    +4
 13   iJon            5,956   13     0
 14   scem0           5,655   15    +1
 15   jsw             5,535   27   +12
 16   arn             5,444   12    -4
 17   shadowfax       5,429   14    -3
 18   iGAV            5,192   20    +2
 19   wrldwzrd89      5,090   31   +12
 20   paulwhannel     5,088   18    -2
 21   Nermal          5,016   24    +3
 22   vniow           4,920   17    -5
 23   AlphaTech       4,562   19    -4
 24   jxyama          4,425   25    +1
 25   Abstract        4,399   37   +12
Code:
Proj  Projection      Proj   Curr  Delta
Rank  July 4, 2005    Posts  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  -----  ----  -----
 26   ~Shard~         4,373   36   +10
 27   krossfyter      4,222   21    -6
 28   Backtothemac    4,097   22    -6
 29   stoid           4,058   35    +6
 30   cb911           4,021   26    -4
 31   Powerbook G5    4,016   23    -8
 32   Chip NoVaMac    3,810   44   +12
 33   Counterfit      3,773   34    +1
 34   virividox       3,692   38    +4
 35   Mudbug          3,463   43    +8
 36   job             3,426   28    -8
 37   teabgs          3,347   29    -8
 38   Dont Hurt Me    3,195   33    -5
 39   Durandal7       3,183   30    -9
 40   aswitcher       3,085   49    +9
 41   mac15           3,039   32    -9
 42   Kwyjibo         3,002   40    -2
 43   applemacdude    2,974   46    +3
 44   übergeek        2,938   42    -2
 45   Macmaniac       2,901   47    +2
 46   mischief        2,836   39    -7
 47   Horrortaxi      2,799   --    --
 48   britboy         2,714   41    -7
 49   themadchemist   2,653   --    --
 50   Hemingray       2,622   48    -2
Columns:
  1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
  2. Projection July 4, 2005 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate of the last 6 months.
  3. Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
  4. Curr Rank = current rank, as of January 2005, or "--" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
  5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.
 

Doctor Q

Administrator
Original poster
Staff member
Sep 19, 2002
36,039
3,251
Los Angeles
Comments on the 6-Month Projections

I made the chart in the previous post by extrapolating member post counts based on current post counts and post rates over the last 6 months.

The estimates are likely to be high for members who have a recent flurry of posts and will "settle down" in the next months, and could be low for members who have traditionally posted often but have not posted much lately. I don't expect AlphaTech to pick up posting again, which, oddly enough, makes his projection most likely to be accurate.

The following are facts about the estimates (not necessarily facts in actual fact).

--- Changed members ---

Two members projected to join the Top 50 list:
Horrortaxi, themadchemist

Two members projected to fall off the Top 50 list:
MacAztec, bennetsaysargh

Member projected to miss staying on the Top 50 list by 9 posts: MacAztec

--- Changes in rank ---

At the top: wdlove and eyelikeart are projected to swap places, #2 and #3.

Highest projected rise in rank, each up 12 slots:
jsw, wrldwzrd89, Abstract, Chip NoVaMac

Next highest, up 10 slots:
~Shard~

Highest projected loss in rank, each down 9 slots:
Durandal7, mac15

Next highest, each down 8 slots:
Powerbook G5, job, teabgs

PowerBook G5 has significantly lessened his once-rapid posting pace.

teabgs and job are projected to remain rankmates, one slot apart, dropping from #28 and #29 to #36 and #37.

Five members are projected to retain their position in the Top 50 list:
Mr. Anderson (1), Rower_CPU (4), edesignuk (5), jefhatfield (6), iJon (13)

I hope iJon doesn't suffer from Triskaidekaphobia!