Trump ahead in polls now. Looks like these Veritas videos were the nail in the coffin.

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Bobby Corwen, Oct 22, 2016.

  1. Limey77 macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2010
    #226
    No, none. But I do eagerly await your evidence to show that this is genuine. Seriously I do.

    The phraseology is so high school, the fact they claim that Reddit is more intellectual than anything, the fact they allege they're dominating on Reddit, it's just not something that rings true in any way shape or form.

    But how about that bet?? If you're so sure Trump is going to win then let's have it. Pick your charity (even the despicable Trump Foundation) and we'll make a bet witnesses by everyone who reads this thread. I'll even start a new thread dedicated to it so people can follow.

    How do you want to do it, per electoral college vote?
     
  2. Bobby Corwen thread starter macrumors 68030

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2010
    #227
    Thank you for your time.
     
  3. Limey77 macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2010
    #228
    Thank you for deflecting, being disingenuous and not responding to direct challenges.

    Your cowardice and lack of morals have been noted by everyone, and we now know definitively that you lack a spine as well as a moral compass.

    I still eagerly await your evidence that the supposed document is real. Don't forget the formum rules now. You made the claim, now back it up with supporting evidence or retract it. I merely challenged your assertion.

    So let's see it.

    Oh and I note you keep avoiding my direct challenge to a bet. Too scared? Don't really believe Trump stands a chance?? What is it.
     
  4. jerwin, Oct 24, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2016

    jerwin macrumors 68020

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    #229
    Really, you have no idea how modern political campaigns work. The idea is to to look at a community, see who's eligible to vote, and to motivate those people who lean towards your candidate to actually cast their ballot. If they aren't registered, get them registered. If they can't get to the polls, arrange for someone to drive them to the polls. And if their support isn't strong, figure out a way to motivate that support.

    Polling is a good way to figure out what sort of campaign message "resonates" within a specific subpopulation. Unfortunately, the polls have to be designed to sample the target population. And that's hard to do.

    Campaigns really aren't interested in how "likely voters" nationwide are intending to vote. They're much more interested in cobbling together those 270 votes to actually win the election. They're interested in turning eligible voters into registered voters and turning specific subsets of registered voters into "likely voters".

    So-- yeah. Oversample monolingual hispanics if you want to know if a campaign message is working among monolingual Hispanics.

    As for "media", the campaigns are talking about advertising-- how to design an ad for such and such a demographic, and where to show that ad to reach that demographic. If the ad works, and they turn out on election, congrats. You've done your part for your candidate. If they stay home, or, worse yet, vote for someone else, congrats you've just wasted your money and volunteer resources. Polling that actually samples this targeted population will help you avoid errors.

    The mass media want polls that will accurately predict the outcome of election day. The campaigns want a way to test their strategies. So the campaigns are often using different polling techniques. It would be nice if the campaigns didn't succumb to delusions, but in the era of low turnout, there's a lot of room to target gotv efforts.
     
  5. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2003
    #230
    Hey @Bobby Corwen , just another manic Monday, huh? Trump now trailing in 2 of 3 polls that had him leading (LAT and IBD). Sucks to have all you eggs in the Rasmussen basket. Hurry, time for you to go read some more Bill Mitchell tweets. Teehee.
     
  6. Bobby Corwen thread starter macrumors 68030

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    Jul 16, 2010
    #231
    A classy gentleman like me doesn't participate in betting contests.

    In response to your question though the type of practice is already evident so that document illustrates something that is already common sense.
     
  7. Raid macrumors 68020

    Raid

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    Feb 18, 2003
    Location:
    Toronto
    #232
    I find the owner of this car's mindset very repugnant... I mean who would pay good money for an ugly car paying lip-service to panel vans of old? It's like Chevy tried to mimic Chrysler's PT Cruiser in every way, including the ugly. :)

    As for this thread, I'm just glad the US's two year long election process will finally be over. If people are easily dissuaded from voting because of polls, you deserve what you get. (For recent reference see Great Britian, Brexit vote) :D
     
  8. Limey77 macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2010
    #233
    So you DON'T actually believe what you're posting? Very telling, I think that's the very definition of a troll. And don't believe for one second that you have any class as it's abundantly clear you don't.

    So just to be clear, you have zero evidence that what you're posting is in any way, shape or form legitimate - yet you expect anyone to simply "believe you"? Given your continued flip/flop and misunderstanding of very basic ideas, I'm sure you'll forgive everyone for doubting your sincerity.
     
  9. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2009
    #234
    After seeing that state by state polling, I have to agree with and quote Trump: "How stupid are the people of Iowa?" :p

    The Trump? How anyone can vote for someone who refers to himself in the 3rd person is beyond me. It's really creepy.

    I see the pendulum has swung back to the nervous "too soon to call" posture. :D
     
  10. Bobby Corwen thread starter macrumors 68030

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    Jul 16, 2010
    #235
    I do believe it. I highly doubt Trump will lose any battleground states.

    -He is winning the early vote in Florida after his hype 12k+ ppl rally.
    -He is up +3 in Texas. Its RCP so its more like +10
    -Libs lagging behind 2012 pace in Ohio and Iowa

    Combine this with evidence from social media such as Twitter and Facebook and looking at and comparing the hype levels and numbers of support between the two, its quite obvious my theory that nobody is really exited for Hillary is and will effect expected Democratic turnout.
     
  11. LizKat macrumors 603

    LizKat

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    #236
    Or an AI, but not as entertaining a program as Hieveryone had on board from time to time...
     
  12. Crichton333 macrumors 6502

    Crichton333

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    May 4, 2014
    #237
    So weird that the last couple elections democrats have all the states with most electorate votes locked. Before Obama there were like 3 democratic presidents in 50 years before that.
     
  13. jerwin macrumors 68020

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    Jun 13, 2015
    #238
    The following article said it much better than I did.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-donald-trumps-new-excuse-for-why-hes-losing/

     
  14. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    Mar 22, 2010
    #239
    o_O Whut? In my lifetime (55 years) ...

    Democrat (5):
    Kennedy, Johnson, Carter, Clinton, Obama

    Republican (5): Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush I, Bush II

    I'm sorry ... what was your point again?
     
  15. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    Apr 20, 2009
    #240
    Texas is not a battleground state. Florida is close. It always is. Neither candidate is winning nor losing there yet. I do think Trump could win Ohio and for some odd reason looks to most certainly win Iowa, but that is not enough to get him over the finish line.

    As for not losing any other battleground state? Really? He's not winning Colorado. He isn't winning Virginia. Nevada looks doubtful. Pennsylvania? Don't see that happening either. On top of that he might even lose Utah which isn't a battleground state.

    But dream big Bobby. Dream big.
     
  16. Crichton333 macrumors 6502

    Crichton333

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    #241
    Well I said before Obama, didnt count JFK :) ok I got schooled but still didnt Nixon win all states by a landslide ?

    JFK got killed, Clinton impeached but after Bush 2 they locked all the mayor votes.
     
  17. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    UK
    #242
    Well all the gays vote Democratic. All the Hispanics vote Democratic. All the blacks vote Democratic. All the people into BDSM and group sex vote Democratic. All the single women vote Democratic. All the environmentalists vote Democratic.

    That leaves gun owners and racists who vote Republican.
     
  18. Crichton333 macrumors 6502

    Crichton333

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    #243
    Gay gun owners an racist Hispanics must be really torn.
     
  19. mobilehaathi macrumors G3

    mobilehaathi

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    #244
    To be fair, there are plenty of Republican sadists.
     
  20. cwosigns macrumors 68000

    cwosigns

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    Location:
    Columbus,OH
    #245
    No. There's a sizable number of closeted, self-hating gays and freaky conservatives who vote Republican. They just lie about what they do behind closed doors and instead portray themselves as Christian conservatives preaching family values instead of letting their freak flags fly.
     
  21. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #246
    Sadly not accurate. Most of the people in those groups might vote democratic but certainly not all.
     
  22. pmau macrumors 68000

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    Nov 9, 2010
    #247
    Comey and Loretta Lynch already told everyone who will win.
    There's nothing to see here.
     
  23. Crichton333 macrumors 6502

    Crichton333

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    May 4, 2014
    #248
    As Gary Johnson is predicted to win a state you might as well say Martians are voting in this bizzaro world we live in today.
     
  24. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #249
  25. Crichton333 macrumors 6502

    Crichton333

    Joined:
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    #250

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