Trump in the lead in battleground states?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by thermodynamic, Sep 25, 2016.

  1. thermodynamic Suspended

    thermodynamic

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    #1
    From an email from an organization I never donated to:


    If the Democrats, DSCC, DCCC, etc, are so afraid, concerned, and pleading for money, and so on, how is asking us for money going to resolve problems when the economy is, as they have admitted regarding stagnant wages, a big issue?

    Meanwhile,

    How come they put words in his mouth to say he (purportedly) demands we fight back all while he merely asks other people to do things? Why can't he demand for them the way he apparently authorized allowing the demand of us?

    Don't they understand why these concerning, terrifying scary events have happened? Doesn't this suggest they are out of touch with the voters?

    I agree, though, at least for the Presidency, if not the House and Senate, Democrats are in trouble and their constituents and voters are not the cause of the blame. Not when we've done everything they've asked for in the past. It wouldn't take much for things to get turned around for the better, even now. But will that happen?
     
  2. thermodynamic, Sep 25, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2016

    thermodynamic thread starter Suspended

    thermodynamic

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    #2
  3. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    The media's job seems to be "build 'em up and then tear 'em down" ever since around the 80s sometime.

    What's sad is people voting for Trump as if he's a King and can walk into DC in January and undisappear the loss of obsolete jobs, etc. He'd be walking into a buzzsaw on K street for one thing. If he wins, he'll be a one term president and the turnout for the next election will be unbelievably low: finally everyone on all sides of the equation will be equally disillusioned. If Clinton wins, there's a decent chance Congress will ungridlock itself and get a few things done for the people. It's not like the populist message from both sides of the spectrum have gone unnoticed. They know they're on warning in Congress now.
     
  4. chown33 macrumors 604

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    #4
    Well before the 80s.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Nixon's_last_press_conference
    ... Nixon insisted that the press had attacked him since 1948 following the Alger Hiss case. He accused the press of printing articles supporting their favored candidates, ...​

    More at the link.
     
  5. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #5
    Candidates were claiming the press had it out for them in the 1800's even.

    http://freakonomics.com/2007/11/06/...f-dirty-politics-a-qa-on-anything-for-a-vote/
     
  6. nfl46 macrumors 604

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    #6
    In 4-way, here are the stats so far:

    Florida: Trump - 0.1
    Ohio: Trump - 2.0
    Iowa: Trump - 6.6
    North Carolina: Trump - 1.8
     
  7. zin Suspended

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  8. nfl46 macrumors 604

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    #8
    Please be fair:

    Polls-only forecast - What the polls tell us about Nov. 8

    upload_2016-9-26_10-34-22.png

    Polls -Plus forecast - What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8

    upload_2016-9-26_10-35-40.png
     
  9. zin Suspended

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    #9
    What are you talking about? My post clearly stated "If the election were held today".
     
  10. nfl46 macrumors 604

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    #10
    I know what your post stated...but is today November 8th? Pointless (a) poll.
     
  11. zin Suspended

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    #11
    All polls show the opinion at one point in time. Trends, however, are important. Clinton's lead has been substantially eroded over the last three months. At this point, the election is a toss-up.

    Which must frighten you tremendously.
     
  12. nfl46 macrumors 604

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    #12
    Frighten me? Sweetie - we have been saying for MONTHS that the race will be a nail bitter. Maybe you should stop by our office and sit in one a meeting. Hell, Hillary and Tim have said it countless times as well. The US is TOO divided for a landslide.
     
  13. zin Suspended

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    #13
    I have no intention of ever associating with a Hillary Clinton campaign office. Not even if you paid me to sit and do nothing.
     
  14. nfl46 macrumors 604

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    #14
    Sounds good to me. Now, watch our ground game go to work in October/November. GAME TIME! (S) has finally got real. This is what we've been building for MONTHS.
     
  15. Herdfan macrumors 6502

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    #15
    Not sure about that. Looking back in my lifetime there were 2 Presidents that were able to overcome a partisan Congress of the other party: Reagan and B. Clinton. Although they did it in different ways, they were also similar in that they were popular and charismatic enough to take their ideas straight to the voters and have the voters pressure Congress. Obama has the ability, but is too idealogical to compromise like the other 2.

    Hillary is not well liked and doesn't have charisma so I don't think that will work.

    Also, the Dems must be in full panic mode today: Nate Silver only has Clinton up 52-48. Wasn't she up on his site like 90-10 a month ago?
     
  16. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #16
    I wonder if anyone can truly break through the gridlock. Everyone seems so dug in now.
     
  17. nfl46 macrumors 604

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    #17
    Oops, :)
    upload_2016-9-26_15-28-49.png
     
  18. nfl46 macrumors 604

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    #19
  19. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    (Sigh) I feel like one big game of tug o war is being played here. Back and forth, back and forth the white cloth in the middle goes.

    I think a lot of this polling is absolute nonsense. Swings when something big happens like conventions and Hillary nearly collapsing make sense. But what accounts for the back and forth seen the last few weeks? I don't think Hillary has done anything particularly bad or Trump anything particularly good. In other words, there really haven't been any major stumbles by either campaign the last 2 weeks nor have there been huge giant successes. And yet, the numbers keep moving back and forth all over the place? Why?
     
  20. zin, Sep 26, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2016

    zin Suspended

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    #21
    It isn't a back-and-forth. It is a visible long-term and substantial drop in Hillary's numbers that started months ago.

    [​IMG]

    For perspective, Obama had an 82% chance of winning by 538's models on this day in 2012, and was trending up for the entire cycle.
     
  21. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #22
    No...the weekly polling has been fluctuating. You know that. What is causing that? You can see it in your graph even. She has a dip, he has a spike. He has a dip, she has a spike. Why? And what cause Trump to drop like a cliff in August?

    Saying it is a long term substantial drop that started months ago isn't even supported by your own posted data.

    Are people really this fickle? To me if anything the numbers should be what you think they are....a slope towards one candidate or the other. But that graph above does not resemble a slope at all. Instead it shows a coming together and then a pulling apart. Then coming together and pulling apart. Then coming together and..... Well we shall see I guess in the weeks ahead.
     
  22. impulse462 macrumors 68000

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  23. Herdfan macrumors 6502

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    #24
    Ummm fainting at the 9/11 Memorial. That was not one, but two huge strikes against Hillary. First, it turns out she was sick (I know just pneumonia, but still sick) and second she kept it from the people and further cemented not being truthful about her health with the voters.

    And he has learned to keep his mouth shut.
     
  24. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #25
    I said the last two weeks. And really, I don't call someone getting pneumonia a stumble anyway. Is that what they do at your work when you get sick? Oh that Herdfan, he was doing okay but man he got that pneumonia....it wasn't his fault, but we're going to have to let him go anyway.

    Punemonia ≠ terminal cancer diagnosis.

    I do agree about the less that truthful thing, but my goodness, how many things has Trump been less that truthful on? Why is he being graded on a curve? If another candidate couldn't get away with little knowledge and a brash temper, than neither should he.
     

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