Trump is now bragging about being down in the polls

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by samcraig, Oct 16, 2016.

  1. samcraig macrumors P6

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  2. Tmelon macrumors 6502a

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    If I had to guess, I'd say he's trying to hype up a comeback as other polls have shown him down 8-11 points. Showing that a victory is within reach will help to mobilize his discouraged supporters on election day.
     
  3. Benjamin Frost Suspended

    Benjamin Frost

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    The polls in the UK were hopelessly wrong for Brexit. They persistently gave a lead of several points to the Remain camp, and the likelihood of a Brexit victory was calculated at about 30%.

    Judging from the consistently huge crowds at the many Trump rallies compared to the pitifully small drabs at the few Clinton rallies, America is looking forward to a decisive victory for Trump in November.
     
  4. thermodynamic Suspended

    thermodynamic

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  5. Benjamin Frost Suspended

    Benjamin Frost

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    Yep. The election is on November 8th, I believe.
     
  6. steve knight macrumors 68020

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    right he tends to attract fanatics not normal Americans. and with his mouth and deeds it will just get worse then better. You must not have seen the last Clinton rally.
     
  7. Tmelon macrumors 6502a

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    Clinton's rally in Colorado definitely had an excellent turnout. But to be fair, Trump frequently has huge crowds and delivers significantly more public speeches than Clinton who seems to prefer having her surrogates campaign in her absence.
     
  8. steve knight macrumors 68020

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    well yes because he is the reality star and loves to show himself to the public. he is an entertainer after all.
     
  9. Fancuku macrumors 6502a

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    It's clear that very few are excited about Clinton but it doesn't really mean that Trump will win. If he does win, which I don't think he will, it would be the most unlikely win probably ever.
     
  10. thermodynamic Suspended

    thermodynamic

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    Not since election 2000 (popular vs electoral count, popular data being promptly ditched though in retrospect Al Gore might not have had 9/11 or Iraq to deal with but not much else would have been different. Probably would be better off, arguably $6T in debt or less, as opposed to the $10T Bush left (not including the balance sheets where he hid war costs to artificially look better... Obama put the proper costs back and all of a sudden he created all $20T of debt on his very own... :rolleyes: )
     
  11. IronWaffle macrumors 6502

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    I'm sure plenty of people in-the-know are as concerned (if not more) than we in the peanut gallery are. At the time I'm posting this, these are the popular vote numbers:

    Hillary Clinton 48.9%
    Donald Trump 43.7%
    Δ 5.2%​

    Their numbers have remained fairly consistent for at least a week. This is the first time I've noticed Johnson, who's been polling in the 7%-7.2% range drop to 5.9% A few hours ago, fivethirtyeight also posted this analysis [note: emphases mine]:

    For my part, the surprise result for Brexit hangs over all these numbers and I won't be comfortable with any predictions until after the election. I've read elsewhere on the net ("conspiratorial lamestream rigged media", so make of it what you will) that there are indications that Trump's numbers haven't softened much in the turbulent last week, but some polls are indicating less enthusiasm among pro-Trump respondents. If that's the case then Republicans will have to redouble their turnout efforts. For her part, Clinton needs to do this as well. I'm sure it's been reported but I haven't read it: I feel Clinton needs a larger than recently normal turnout and popular vote to counter the increasing conspiracy rhetoric coming from the Trump camp. If she gets it -- and I hope she does -- I hope it's not (misinterpreted as a mandate. I sense no mandate from either side; definitely not from the Democrats. Increased turnout, from my vantage point, will be anti-Trump more than anti-GOP (e.g., Ryan & Congress) -- depending, of course, on down-ballot votes.
     
  12. Tmelon macrumors 6502a

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    The issue that both candidates face on Election Day is actually mobilizing their potential voters. Clinton without a doubt has a strong lead in the polls, but she shouldn't get cocky as her lead in polls could actually discourage her potential voters from showing up as they already presume her to win (similar to Brexit). Trump's issue is the many key demographics that he's missing, so for him to have a victory he would need exceptional voter turnout from his base with simultaneous poor turnout from Clinton's.
     
  13. MadeTheSwitch, Oct 16, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2016

    MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

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    1. Brexit was one big national pool of votes. Not similar to a U.S. presidential election at all which is decided on an electoral state by state basis. Thus the math is much different. A great deal of the population lives in blue states. Thus the path to victory for a Republican president is much more narrow and difficult. I think Trump's own words turn off a great many people. You have a situation where both voters and newspaper endorsements have crossed party lines for the first time ever. Papers who have endorsed only Republicans for over a century are backing a democrat. In fact, to date Trump only has one single endorsement from a paper in Santa Barbara. That is unheard of and unprecedented.
    2. Rally crowds in no way determine outcome of elections. I didn't go to a single rally this year. Doesn't mean I won't vote. Fact is most people do not go to rallies. I have only been to one in my entire life.
    But if you are hung up on size, this wasn't small last week:

    image.jpeg

    It's November 28th per Trump. :D
     
  14. Bobby Corwen macrumors 68030

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    Thats a myth. Lots of people who support trump are normal and intlligent. The rednecks dont define us.

    It would be like saying only blacks and mexicans support hillary and most of them are criminals on welfare (which is statistically a fact)

    So I would say Democrats are the ghetto ones by far.

    Look at which demographics commit the most crimes and their education levels...

    There is no room to comment about the intelligence of Trump supporters. Hillary supporters are literally the scum and gutters of society getting carried on welfare and UI by Trump supporters.

    To say Trump supporters are dumb is disgraceful and hypocritical.
     
  15. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

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    Well, Trump has to be out more. He doesn't have very many people willing to be his surrogates.

    Even Trump's crowds are deserting him.

    Obama Draws Twice As Many People To Same NC Venue As Trump Crowd Size Plummets
     
  16. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    I'm voting for Hillary. Am I the scum and gutter of society Bobby? Do you think I am on welfare and UI? And do you really think there aren't any Trump supporters on welfare or UI???
     
  17. Tech198 macrumors G4

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  18. samcraig thread starter macrumors P6

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    Voter turnout is important. That being said - Trump hasn't done much to expand his base. That's his undoing.
     
  19. Bobby Corwen macrumors 68030

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    No thats what Im saying.

    Its a fallacy when people keep trying to paint all Trump supporters as dumb, aka "deplorables" when in fact there are lots of different people from all walks of life, same with Hillary.

    But if we really break down the maojor groups, deplorable for deplorable, Hillary has way more of them statistically.
    --- Post Merged, Oct 16, 2016 ---
    Polls mean nothing. Trump voters are out in force. No one seems to realise this, they think polls of 1000 democrats are more representative of American views than rally turnouts.

    Tim Kaine for example had less than 50 people show up for one of his rallies in Miami. Democrats dont really care this time.

    http://wsvn.com/news/politics/tim-kaine-campaigns-for-clinton-in-rally-at-miami-dade-college/

    Less than 50 people!! loll
     
  20. samcraig thread starter macrumors P6

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    Rallies don't mean anything. I never said polls meant anything. Trump is the one living and dying by them.

    Like I said - Trump has his core supporters - but he hasn't widened his base. He's in trouble.
     
  21. StarShot macrumors 6502

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  22. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    Mike Pence has had to cancel some of his appearances lately for lack of interest..so...not sure what point you think you are making here.

    But again, rally size and votes don't go hand in hand. Again, I have only been to one rally in my life. And it wasn't even for anyone that was on the ballot. Yet, I have voted in every single election since 1980. But you sure wouldn't know that by my (lack of) rally attendance!
     
  23. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    Do terrorist define Muslims?
     
  24. samiwas macrumors 65816

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    Here's the thing....likely every single Trump supporter goes to his rallies. They are pretty obsessed. On the other hand, people like myself would never, ever, go to a political rally, no matter who the candidate is. Most people I know (on the left) feel this way.

    I'm generally pretty ambivalent on voting. If I can do it, I do it. If I can't, I don't. But with this election, I will not let anything stop me from getting to the polls.
    --- Post Merged, Oct 16, 2016 ---
    Hahahahahhahahaha

    The last time I took a government dollar was about a month of unemployment during a scheduled month off work about 18 years ago. I am quite liberal. Most of my friends are Hillary supporters, and most are doing quite well for themselves. I do not know a single one living off Trump supporters. I do have a few Trump supporter friends, though. Most of them either live off of their wives or otherwise complain about how much their job sucks.

    But let's face it, you're just another post-bot anyway.
     
  25. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    It reminds me of the Grateful Dead ... always guaranteed to draw a faithful crowd of true believers.
     

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