Trump's end, just three states

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by 63dot, Mar 23, 2016.

  1. 63dot, Mar 23, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2016

    63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #1
    With the poor showing in Texas on Super Tuesday, loss of all delegates in Ohio, and all delegates in Utah last night, Trump could not attain a knock out punch at the three places he could have this season, and does not have clear path to nomination. But neither does Cruz.

    Trump would have to receive a portion of votes remaining that is just too big to attain.

    Unless something completely unforeseen happens and not the numerically predictable GOP race up until now, we have a contested GOP convention coming up.

    Thoughts?
     
  2. VulchR macrumors 68020

    VulchR

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    #2
    The GOP has gone stark raving mad.

    Their only hope is Kasich.
     
  3. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #3
    True.

    Trump and Cruz are so nutty that neither one of them will be able to win in November. I do think Kasich is the only one capable of beating Hillary.
     
  4. vrDrew macrumors 65816

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    #4


    I think that the California primary, coming up on June 7, is going to be the make/break point for the Trump campaign.

    California is a tough sell for Trump. Its well-educated; ethnically diverse; and less subject to the rust-belt disaffections that have motivated many Trump voters. But its also a huge delegate trove.

    If Trump wins California, I think he is all but guaranteed of securing the Republican nomination. If he doesn't, its going to come down to a contested convention. With all the political fallout that ensues as a result.

    The bad news? We've all got to endure two and a half more months of listening to Donald Trump's blithering idiocy and reckless bigotry.
     
  5. pooleman Suspended

    pooleman

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    #5
    Kasich is a fool.
     
  6. FieldingMellish Suspended

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    #6
    The latest entry in almost a year's worth of endless Trump downfall lines in the sand.
     
  7. Huntn macrumors G5

    Huntn

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    #7
    Popcorn or clam dip? :)

    I'd love to hear why, your party's only salvation for President this time around described as such.
     
  8. haxrnick macrumors 6502a

    haxrnick

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    #8
    [​IMG]
     
  9. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

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    #9
    try changing the channel, catch up on the walking dead, start Dexter & Breaking bad, G.O.T., plenty of decent TV out there. I am yet to watch a single debate :D
     
  10. 63dot, Mar 23, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2016

    63dot thread starter macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #10
    Past all the rhetoric, it's the math. With so little time left and losing all of Utah, Trump will have to be "more" popular in upcoming states. Yes, he's popular but can he become more popular? I don't think so. He will, however, under any model I have seen, have the most delegates by far at the end of this. No, not 1,237 but still the most.

    Cruz only has hopes because Kasich took winner take all Ohio. But on the defense of Cruz, he got more than 50% percent of Utah and captured all the delegates holding Trump from increasing his lead by much. Somehow, even though hated by many in Texas, Ted also got that and stopped Trump from a numerical certainty of getting the nomination back on Super Tuesday.

    But like mentioned, in delegate rich California, if Trump captures most of that state (113 or so), then he will have the needed delegates. But as mentioned, we aren't the rust belt nor the Bible Belt (whom thought would go to Cruz) so anything can happen.

    Most models, as seen on RCP, shows Trump with just over 1,200 delegates (1,208) and now maybe 1,180 or 1,190 since the incredibly poor showing in Utah that made it a winner take all for Cruz. This only slightly helps Cruz in his quest for 1,237 but he's incredibly unlikely to get it. Ted would also have to become more popular but I don't see that happening, either. Ted has surpassed the popularity most have predicted, but still I think Ted's at his peak and may only capture a few more states and be hundreds behind Trump.

    At the end of the day, let's say Trump walks in with 1,137 and the next closest is Cruz wallowing down below 700. How can Cruz make a case for himself? And how can the GOP rightly pick another because Donald was just 100 points short? These will be key questions coming up very soon. Trump under almost any scenario is going to get over 1,000 delegates and the Trump supporters will stay loyal to him and this can split the GOP in two with just 2,472 total delegates.
     
  11. Qbnkelt macrumors 65816

    Qbnkelt

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    #11
    I'd go with The Walking Dead. Stuff's getting serious.
     
  12. 63dot, Mar 23, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2016

    63dot thread starter macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #12
    Trump is at 1,188 projected delegates after last night, but Cruz is only at 656 for final tally.

    It's unlikely to vary much from that unless one or both either greatly increase in popularity or decrease in popularity.

    Trump won't get 1,237 if past races are taken into account, but may make strong case for nomination because Cruz will be well below 700 on today's projection model. Kasich would have to drop out and back, and campaign for Cruz and this WON'T happen in any universe.

    I think if Trump doesn't get it, due to insufficient majority, or a few delegates refraining from voting, then Mitt Romney will be hailed as the hero of putting up statistically insurmountable stops in Ohio (maybe?, or was it Kasich) and Utah.

    As hero, Mitt can be asked (hmm, against his will) to be the nominee. Mitt may reluctantly take it, and while it may not have been Mitt's original strategy, would you turn down a second chance at POTUS against a Hilary who has the second highest negative ratings (behind Trump)? Mitt would waltz into the White House. And Mitt's no hero and perhaps Ohio and Utah would have given all their delegates to someone other than Trump anyway, but you know the Mitt people will offer him up as some sort of republican hero.

    I thought we saw the last of 1%-er Mitt but at this time next year we could all be bitching about how to impeach him and have conservatives and liberals on the same page!
     
  13. throAU macrumors 601

    throAU

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    #13
    He has tiny hands, no idea, no policies, and this song was written for him.

     
  14. 63dot thread starter macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #14
    Great song!

    GOP and Fox follows RCP more than liberal only slanted polls and this has them worried. Secretary Clinton opens up biggest lead over Trump in 7 months. I think it could be smarter to run Mitt however unfair this seems but delegates are not about being fair, but a process that's in play and they will do what they do.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
     
  15. Gjwilly macrumors 68030

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    #15
    Under the current rules, only Trump, Cruz, and possibly Kasich will be eligible for consideration during a brokered convention.
    The only way Romney, Rubio, Ryan, or anyone else could even get in would be for a rule change before the convention and while that's nothing unusual, in this climate where many already see a brokered convention as a way to screw Trump and his supporters, a rule change on top of everything else would be seen as dirty dealings indeed.
     
  16. thewap, Mar 23, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2016

    thewap macrumors demi-god

    thewap

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    #16
    MSM, both parties, again spells doom for Trump ! LOL. the reporting these days (if you can call it that) I consider wishful thinking news amid the panic and disbelief of the coalition of powers trying to derail Trump. In reality if anyone wanted to see the cockroaches scramble, all Trump had to do is shine a light on them, which he did.

    Trump threatens the powers that be, threatens the cushy positions of all the corrupt politicians and their minions's jobs which they have held for years in total disregard of the people they represent , obvious in the collusion by both parties.

    Now the republicans neocons are even trying to derail it's own party to let Hillary win, because Hillary plays their game well , so their power and connections would stay intact under Hillary rule.

    But this time whether Trump wins or not, the duopoly of the elite is so obvious, both the left and right paradigm is in mortal danger to those that can see with eyes wide open, it is almost comical.

    Truth is, far from doom and what has both parties or the elite if you will, in total panic is that Trump still can win the nomination and the golden number.

    739 is where Trump stands after AZ. With 2 months to go and three key states approaching, where Trump has a large lead (NY-95, CA-179, CT- 50), Trump only needs to win these three take all states to win the nomination. He could even loose CA but pickup NJ-51 and Delaware-16 and he would win the magic number with States where Trump wins as well are Wisconsin-42, Maryland-38, Pennsylvania-71, and Rhode Island-19.

    So spin all they want, both parties, MSM, are pulling their hairs out in disbelief that their smear propaganda has not worked to derail Trump yet - most all of them with egg on their smug "I can brainwash anyone" faces as they look in sheer horror at the Trump Train plowing everything in it's path.

    One thing is for sure, when the GOP brokers the convention they will have effectively destroyed their party. One thing that is not for sure is that the delegates would make the switch to the establishment's choice, rather than stick it out with Trump.
     
  17. shinji macrumors 65816

    shinji

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    #17
    If Trump is just shy of 1237, he'll almost certainly still get the nomination because of how few unpledged delegates he'll need for a first ballot majority. Cruz and Kasich will need to do much better than they currently are.
     
  18. 63dot thread starter macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #18
    If he gets it then GOP will move to plan B and run any third party conservative. They just don't want Trump to ruin their party with four years of reckless abandon. They will sacrifice four years for the next 100.
     
  19. vrDrew macrumors 65816

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    #19
    I'm not at all sure that will happen. There simply isn't any way that could turn out well for the GOP.

    A Third Party "Real GOP" candidate would simply split the conservative vote, all but ensuring a Democratic landslide of historic proportions. It could very likely lead to even deeper downticket losses among GOP Senate and Congressional seats. It would also cast grave doubts about the very legitimacy of Republicanism as a governing philosophy. It would furthermore exacerbate the split between the populist wing of the GOP and its more establishment roots.

    I think that when all is said and done, the GOP would be better off tacitly conceding the election to Hillary Clinton; and doing their best to preserve whatever Congressional majorities they can hold on to. They might not like Hillary Clinton, but she is someone they can work with. The "smart" money on the GOP would be for them to concede the 2016 Presidential to Clinton, even if it means losing (temporary) control of the Senate. But then wait for the inevitable economic recession and voter dissatisfaction to kick in - allowing a Republican sweep in 2020.

    Of course, in the final analysis, "Smart" and GOP are not usually two phrases found in close proximity. Republicans have been vastly over-estimating the popularity of many of their policy positions for many years now. So maybe we will see Romney2016 bumperstickers before too much longer.
     
  20. Gjwilly macrumors 68030

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    #20
    They're ok splitting the vote as long as they can also split the electoral college (not very likely).
    If they can stop Hillary or Trump from reaching the magic number of electorates then it's the House of Representatives that gets to pick the President.
     
  21. thewitt macrumors 68020

    thewitt

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    #21
    A third party GOP candidate would ensure Hillary wins. Nothing more.
     
  22. DUCKofD3ATH Suspended

    DUCKofD3ATH

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    #22
    I predict terrorist attacks in the US causing everybody to scramble to vote for Trump.
     
  23. thermodynamic Suspended

    thermodynamic

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    #23
    Thoughts:

    If no single candidate earns enough electoral college votes, 270, then congress gets to decide the winner. The GOP has a better chance at winning than what people think, which also explains their gambit in obstructing Obama (despite all the compromising and catering he's done to appease them, the guy's patience is sainthood-worthy...)

    And arguably the most disgusting thought of all time: I prefer rocky road to strawberry ice cream.
     
  24. 63dot thread starter macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #24
    Very possible.
    --- Post Merged, Mar 23, 2016 ---
    That's the GOP best case scenario and it may work.
     
  25. vrDrew macrumors 65816

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    #25
    Why would terrorists want people to vote for Donald Trump? (Other than the the obvious answer that any country that elected such a baboon would be worthy of worldwide ridicule?)

    Why would Americans vote for Donald Trump is response? Because of his high level of diplomatic, military, and intelligence experience? His skill at ordering top secret intelligence operations?

    At the end of a very twisted and delusional thought process you could maybe rationalize buying a gun to keep you safe from terrorism. Voting for Donald Trump holds not the slightest hope. Donald Trump can't make a "deal" with ISIL. He can't take the country into bankruptcy to provide protection from our enemies. And he certainly can't fire would-be suicide bombers.

    In fact, if you look at what happened in France and Belgium, it is precisely because of the sort of anti-Muslim hysteria being peddled by Trump that they have the problems that they do. Muslim communities in the United States phone the FBI and local cops to report suspicious activity. In the ghettos of Brussels and the banlieus of Paris they throw stones at the cops.
     

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