Uh-oh...Democrats gain in generic poll

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Thomas Veil, Aug 2, 2017.

  1. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #1
    All right, let's dispense with all the usual objections, okay? It's a generic poll; it's national-based, not state-by-state; lots of things can change from now till 2018; yada yada ad infinitum.

    Still...

    That's worrisome for the GOP. Then comes the biggest shoe-drop:

    That's definitely not a good sign for the GOP in 2018.
     
  2. linuxcooldude macrumors 68020

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    #2
    I prefer to wait till the next election to see how that pans out.
     
  3. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

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  4. steve knight macrumors 68020

    steve knight

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    #4
    make america great again they said.
     
  5. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

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    #5
  6. DanielDD macrumors 6502

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  7. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

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  8. bradl macrumors 68040

    bradl

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    #8
  9. blackfox macrumors 65816

    blackfox

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    #9
    I would likely think the thread title should be "GOP ineptitude has them sliding in Generic Poll".
     
  10. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #10
    Hope springs eternal! :D
     
  11. blackfox macrumors 65816

    blackfox

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    Well, we're going to Privatize that spring...hope is better managed by the free-market.
     
  12. Mac'nCheese macrumors 68030

    Mac'nCheese

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    #12
  13. IronWaffle, Aug 3, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2017

    IronWaffle macrumors 6502

    IronWaffle

    #13
    This morning I dug into the latest Quinnipiac poll. Yes, it always polls Trump on the lower end of the major polls but even if one wants to discount it on that front, I highly recommend checking it out [here]. Yes, even you Trump supporters that aren't reading this post. When you do, then Ctrl+F/Cmd+F the file and search for "TRENDING." Look at the month-to-month numbers.

    When I ran a marketing department, I never forgot these words from the person who had trained me: "there's lies, damn lies, and then there's statistics." Thing is, even a fairly sound but biased poll has value in the trend lines over time. The relative numbers in this study are a pretty clear signal that Trump's supporters have softened (less passionate, more skeptical) even if they're supporting him still. Also, even a glance at the first page shows that beginning in June many "fence sitters" got off the fence -- and they moved "against."

    If you have more patience, then dig into the "Independent" and "Republican" numbers. Those would be most valuable by using comparative data from previous months; unfortunately, that's not included in the trend summaries. For that, you'd have to go to their page and collate the data manually. Still, it'd likely bear out the same trend toward softening. I'm curious what it will look like in October. We're now in August (aka. "The Silly Season" -- which is hard to quantify this year) so I'm not expecting any major shifts unless North Korea or Russia significantly intensify or if Trump wins in Gen. Kelly v. Twitter. So September's numbers may be a stronger indicator, especially after Congress returns and has taken their constituents' temperatures closer up and had a chance to sort out what they can do before year's end.

    Update: also check out 538's interactive aggregate tracker.
     
  14. VulchR macrumors 68020

    VulchR

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    #14
    Not really - not if you listened closely and understand measurement error.
    --- Post Merged, Aug 3, 2017 ---
    Mark Twain attributed this to Benjamin Disraeli, a British politician, but the history is uncertain.

    In any case, there are liars, damned lairs and politicians. You heard it here first. :p
     
  15. samcraig macrumors P6

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  16. Thomas Veil thread starter macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #16
    Guess you've gotta hang your hat on something.

    But with all the other crap Trump and the Republicans do, pointing to the Dow is not a good argument. It's like a relationship where the husband abuses his wife and isolates her from her friends and thinks it's okay because he buys her a diamond ring. Fine, she's got nice stuff, but the relationship is fundamentally unhealthy.
     
  17. BoxerGT2.5 macrumors 68000

    BoxerGT2.5

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    #17
    Because the polling was so accurate running up to the presidential election.
     
  18. spacemnspiff macrumors 6502a

    spacemnspiff

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    #18
  19. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

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    #19
    does it have scenic views? can I charge a toll on it?
     
  20. spacemnspiff macrumors 6502a

    spacemnspiff

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    #20
    Yes you can, and also included is the 'White House'.
    Sign here>
     
  21. Dagless macrumors Core

    Dagless

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    #21
    Yeah, this is confusing. I thought Trump was supposed to “MAGA”. If that is/was the case then surely there should be a surge in his polls and his approval ratings.

    This is making no sense.
     

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