UK election 2017

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by unlinked, Apr 23, 2017.

  1. unlinked macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2010
    Location:
    Ireland
    #1
    Should be an interesting election.


    Looks like the SNP is in line to lose 9 MPs. Not too surprising as the Brexit voters presumably are going to line up behind behind the Conservative and Unionist party, at least until Labour can work out what its Brexit policy is.

    https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/gener...re-set-to-soar-while-labour-face-more-misery/


    Meanwhile Labour is issuing statements to assure people it is still behind Trident despite their party leader not seeming so sure. One of Labours MPs has even committed to not voting for Jeremy Corbyn as PM should the chance arise. Seems like a relatively unpresented statement for a parties MP to make.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politic...r-support-trident-nuclear-deterrent-manifesto

    http://www.itv.com/news/granada/2017-04-19/barrows-labour-mp-i-cant-vote-for-corbyn-to-be-pm/
     
  2. VulchR macrumors 68020

    VulchR

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2009
    Location:
    Scotland
    #2
    Not so sure about those SNP predicted losses, mostly because I cannot imagine anybody feeling moved to vote Tory. But that's just me...
     
  3. unlinked thread starter macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2010
    Location:
    Ireland
    #3
    I guess you should know but it makes sense to me since Labour seems iffy on Scottish independence (with Corbyn in place anyway) and Brexit. Anyone who was against the former and pro the latter would seem more at home with the Conservatives.
     
  4. Scepticalscribe, Apr 23, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2017

    Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2008
    Location:
    The Far Horizon
    #4
    Quite candidly, I think the Tory leader in Scotland - Ruth Davidson - is exceptionally impressive - and, almost alone among Tories (with the possible exception of Ken Clark) she was a passionate Remainer and was absolutely superb in one of the TV debates alongside Sadiq Khan (himself a very impressive individual) when both argued strongly and passionately for Remain.

    So, a few Tory gains in Scotland would not come as a complete surprise.

    Actually, the quality of the Scottish leaders (they are blessed with three very good leaders, who happen to be female, Nicola Sturgeon, Ruth Davidson, and Kezia Dugdale) - whether you agree with them or not - puts those fronting the Westminster parties (especially Mr Corbyn and Mr Farron) to shame.
     
  5. The-Real-Deal82 macrumors 601

    The-Real-Deal82

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2013
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    #5
    I can't bring myself to vote for Corbyn, I don't trust him with the countries cheque book and find him pretty weak as a leader. The anti Tory stuff all over social media gets on my wick too and right now I can't see a better Prime Minister to follow through with Brexit than May. I don't agree with everything the Tories are doing, especially with the NHS but we had cuts under labour with 29 A&E departments under threat back in 2006.

    I'll vote Plaid Cymru in the local elections as Labour are far too complacent here and despite Blaenau Gwent paying the most council tax in all of Wales, the councillors have all received significant pay rises, put our rates up and had the cheek to ask residents to litter pick in every street to help out. They only pop out of the woodwork at ejection time.
     
  6. Peterkro macrumors 68020

    Peterkro

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2004
    Location:
    Communard de Londres
    #6
    Is a strong leader a good idea, have a look around the world at the "strong leaders" are you sure that would be better than someone who asks the advice of party members before making important decisions.
    Of course representative "democracy" is a loaded game and regardless of who you vote for a politician will be elected.
     
  7. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2005
    Location:
    UK
    #7
    It's ****ing tired. Sports team politics at its worst.
     
  8. Scepticalscribe, Apr 23, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2017

    Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2008
    Location:
    The Far Horizon
    #8
    Point well taken (and very nicely made) about the dubious attractions of "strong men", but a leader who will actually give some sort of leadership would be nice.

    As a leader of the opposition, Mr Corbyn has been uniquely dreadful, failing completely to hold the Government to account, and failing to see what is happening as part of a bigger picture. My fear is that he is still stuck fighting the ideological battles of the 70s, but the world has moved on.

    Worse, it is becoming increasingly clear that Mrs May - personally - plays host to a positive plethora of authoritarian instincts, and strongly dislikes her motives or actions coming under any sort of serious scrutiny.

    Personally, I am appalled at the craven and gutless leadership Mr Corbyn supplied as leader of the Opposition over Brexit and the triggering of Article 50; he failed entirely to even attempt to hold Theresa May to account, and failed, also, to model Labour as an alternative Government.

    Moreover, I cannot see a single reason why he facilitated Theresa May's desire to side-step the constraints of the Fixed Term Parliament Act by enabling her wish to call a general election. If I were one of his advisors, I would have counselled, or recommended, that he - and Labour - vote against her proposal, thereby keeping pressure on her.

    Actually, I think that Mr Corbyn completely lacks political "nous", political cop-on, and any sense of tactical or strategic awareness in a political context.
     
  9. The-Real-Deal82 macrumors 601

    The-Real-Deal82

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2013
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    #9
    I think we need a leader that can be firm with Brexit negotiations and I feel Corbyn hasn't adapted to the notion we are actually leaving the EU. We need a PM with a business head who is able to make the best of what is a bad situation.

    Indeed, it's seems to be trend of late. During the EU referendum it got bad but has ramped up since the leave vote was not thrown out. If I believed every meme with appalling grammar I would think the government want every hospital closed and all our children to die. You'd also think we lived in utter paradise up until 2010 yet every government is unpopular once they are in power. Labour gambled away civil service pensions and increased our taxes but now are perceived as the saviours to guide us through the next decade of uncertainty.

    I'm in the process now of blocking every political outlet on Facebook that springs up. Lol
     
  10. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2005
    Location:
    UK
    #10
    Even his public holidays policy is ****ing stupid. Who wants more public holidays in March, April and November. I'd take one at the end of June or in July/August over those four. At least the weather would be likely to be nice.

    Plus it's a nightmare for business. I've been scheduling work and the three holidays we have at the end of April and early May are bad enough.
    --- Post Merged, Apr 23, 2017 ---
    Honestly it would have been worse if leave had lost. The leave campaigners would have continued their poison and fail to have expose their chronic lack of policies.

    And if leave had lost big the EU would be acting even further up their own arse than they currently are.
     
  11. VulchR macrumors 68020

    VulchR

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2009
    Location:
    Scotland
    #11
    Well, many people have a right to be negative about the Tory government.
     
  12. The-Real-Deal82 macrumors 601

    The-Real-Deal82

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2013
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    #12
    I live in the Steel and Coal heartland of the South Wales Valleys where the Tories are despised and am well aware of that. People here still vote Labour because of what happened in 1984. The Tories could give everybody £5k extra a year and they would still be hated here, so I understand.

    However it's 2017 and we need to focus on now. Not the hash the Tories made in the 80's or the mess Labour left us in 2010. It's now that counts.
     
  13. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2005
    Location:
    UK
    #13
    Corbyn has shown he can't organise a piss-up in a brewery.
     
  14. Scepticalscribe, Apr 23, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2017

    Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2008
    Location:
    The Far Horizon
    #14
    Unfortunately, that seems to be all too true.
    --- Post Merged, Apr 23, 2017 ---
    Actually, I think that Mr Corbyn is one of those "Seventies Socialists" who was always somewhat opposed to Europe, but has been blindsided by events in that he never expected Leave to win the referendum.

    The tragedy is that other options exist to that of a Hard Brexit, and he has signally failed to nail the Government on this matter, and, equally, has failed to come up with credible alternatives (and they do exist).

    "Firm" is not the issue - the EU holds the whip hand in negotiations, not the UK, and most of the Government (but not, I suspect, Mrs May herself, which may have been one of the main reasons she has called the election) seem to have failed to begin to see this - but, rather, "flexible" is.

    Negotiations in, or with, the EU have usually been based on give-and-take, something the UK side has signally failed to understand in the Brexit negotiations to date; the "throw the toys out of the pram" approach to negotiations will not cut any ice with Brussels, and personally, I don't think I have ever seen a more incompetent, clueless, gormless, and unprepared diplomatic and political initiative in my life than the one currently being advanced by the British Government in Brussels.
     
  15. unlinked thread starter macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2010
    Location:
    Ireland
    #15
    Will that hold true if brexit is a big election issue?
    Wales voted to leave and UKIP did decently in assembly elections iirc.
     
  16. The-Real-Deal82 macrumors 601

    The-Real-Deal82

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2013
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    #16
    Blaenau Gwent voted strongly to leave but is a Labour stronghold. The same can be said of Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney. You are right that it'll be very interesting to see what comes in this GE but I really think the hate for the Tories here is so strong, I can't see people here voting for them. It's often a very simplistic reason too. I encounter so many people who say they vote Labour because the family vote Labour and always will because of what the Tories did to British Steel in Ebbw Vale etc etc. Even the turn out is low.

    Labour are also the only party that make any effort here. The Tories face so much abuse they don't bother pitching for votes. I can't even remember ever having a Conservative party piece of literature through my front door? I'm not sure many of those who voted to leave in this part of wales fully follow politics where they'd know what party is best for Brexit. We shall see.
     
  17. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2005
    Location:
    UK
    #17
    I mean he could have literally quoted eureferendum.com word for word.
     
  18. niploteksi macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2016
    #18
    I think they're all in the "assume crash positions mode". They have no idea what to do or where this is heading and they are all deathly afraid of damaging their careers.
     
  19. Scepticalscribe, Apr 23, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2017

    Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2008
    Location:
    The Far Horizon
    #19
    Fools. They should be more worried about damaging the UK - institutionally, constitutionally, economically, politically, socially and geographically than worried about damaging their own careers - which, are, after all, - in theory at least - supposed to be dedicated to the principle of the "public interest".
     
  20. Peterkro macrumors 68020

    Peterkro

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2004
    Location:
    Communard de Londres
    #20
    Thanks for compliment and I must say I look forward to your posts although I fundamentally disagree with a lot of them.
    Your being a bit disingenuous about the attractions of "strong men" I was referring to leaders male and female.While admittedly women seldom get in the position to misuse power, historically and now they are perfectly capable to be every bit as nasty and stupid as men.
    I don't really support Corbyn as parliamentary politics is a dead end with no chance of ordinary people having an unfettered choice.However he at least is not a power crazed warmonger like most of the others including the Blairites,the Lib Dems and above all the tories.
     
  21. VulchR, Apr 24, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2017

    VulchR macrumors 68020

    VulchR

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2009
    Location:
    Scotland
    #21
    Agreed, but the Tories are hurting people now, and seem to have every intention of continuing to do that. Just my opinion...
    --- Post Merged, Apr 24, 2017 ---
    Sadly I agree, but the answer is not the Tories IMO.
     
  22. The-Real-Deal82 macrumors 601

    The-Real-Deal82

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2013
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    #22
    I think every government makes decisions that don't suit everybody though. The Tories need to focus more on higher earners rather than stinging the poor, but Labour often promise big changes like Corbyn is now, yet tax the wrong people to fund it.

    This extra bank holiday pledge is popular right now but it's 4 extra days and millions of hours lost in productivity. I just fear Labour will reduce our economy to the way it was 7 years ago with over spending and popularity points.

    Another worrying point is Trident. Corbyn refuses to back it but Labour as a party do? I just don't understand how we can vote in a potential PM that leads a party with so little faith in him. He's undoubtedly more a working class mans politician and I admire him for that, but he's in a very weak position and that doesn't bode well for the UK IMHO.
     
  23. sim667 macrumors 65816

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2010
    #23
    What about the mess that Cameron's Tories left us in?
    --- Post Merged, Apr 24, 2017 ---
    I genuinely couldn't care less.
     
  24. Scepticalscribe, Apr 24, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2017

    Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2008
    Location:
    The Far Horizon
    #24
    Actually, I don't think that I was being "disingenuous" (by seeming to excluding women from the discussion) on the topic of "Strong Men", and certainly didn't think that my post - which was in response to yours raising and discussing this topic - came across as such. It wasn't intended to.

    More to the point, nor had I intended to convey the impression, or make the assumption that women couldn't be every bit as authoritarian and appalling by instinct - or, in pursuit of, and/or in the actual practice of, political power - as some of the dictators of yore. Needless to say, I know perfectly well that they can be.

    You had introduced the topic of the contemporary dubious attraction of "Strong Men", and, as I am an historian by background, I simply assumed that you were referring to the lamentable example that 1930s history offers us (and not only the obvious examples; Eastern Europe, too, was stuffed full of such creatures, happily lauded by their own people as "Strong Men".)

    Granted, Mr Corbyn is not a crazed warmonger, - which is a wholly admirable position even if I have come to a place where I would not necessarily fully agree with him (although I probably would have done so as an undergrad).

    Quite apart from moral absolutes, (all wars are wrong) and moral imperatives (not all wars of an interventionist nature are wrong, some may need to happen - prompted by what had happened in places such as Bosnia, Rwanda), - and the dismal recent example of going to war knowingly and worse - knowingly and mendaciously - which meant a morally rotten war (yes, Iraq) - there are other matters to be considered here.

    The first is that sometimes what people say they are going to war for - the "why" they are going to war, the reasons, the motivations, the justifications - are very often not the reasons they are really going to war.

    This is one of the reasons post war "solutions" so often subsequently fail, because - when embarking on military adventure (especially the sort of adventure that leads to an "easy" military victory) very often, you haven't a clue why you are really there, and have no plan whatsoever (apart from the idiocy of "we all live happily ever after while I - or we, or us - plunder your resources") for what to do with the country when the fighting is over.

    Which is why the post war settlement can fall into the trap of score-settling, as previously oppressed minorities seize the opportunity supplied by the presence of international occupying forces - who often rely on them, having overthrown their oppressors who were the previous regime - to settle scores, sometimes in a very ugly and surprisingly comprehensive manner indeed. Enabling such score-settling (or, being an unwitting, clueless and uninformed enabler to such score-settling) simply makes political solutions that are inclusive of all core & key groups a lot harder to subsequently achieve.

    And it is very often why the "mandate" - or the stated reasons for going to war - are retroactively, and retrospectively - and sometimes sneakily, changed, or transformed beyond all recognition after the immediate conflict may have ended.

    Nevertheless, military solutions to political problems very often miss the point.

    Secondly, even when wars may seem justified, the problem is the lessons learned and being applied are frequently the lessons painfully learned from mistakes made in a, or the, previous conflict, and that applying them in a new context might not work. (Bosnia and Kosovo come to mind).

    And thirdly, - and this is for Mr Blair - who is currently talking perfect - fluent, articulate, sensible, intelligent, informed, sane, thoughtful - sense on the EU, Brexit, immigration, - but, unfortunately, and tragically (in the Shakespearean sense), and ironically, has lost the right to be listened to on account of his mendacity about - and subsequent participation in and facilitation of - the matter of the Iraq war.

    Moreover, then, there is his somewhat tasteless but quite marked flagrant preference for the company of the exceedingly wealthy and supremely powerful. This last would matter a lot less if he had been a Tory, but a Labour leader is expected to at least question the bona fides of global elites, not eagerly seek to join them.

    If the basis of your arguments comes from your occupancy of the moral high ground, then you had better be seen to adhere to the standards you preach, (in your life and in the policies you pursue) otherwise your credibility will come under scrutiny. Occupancy of the moral high ground - and using ethics as an argument - is an expression soft power at its most potent, but it only works if you are seen to embody these values yourself.
     
  25. unlinked, Apr 24, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2017

    unlinked thread starter macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2010
    Location:
    Ireland
    #25
    Is he? If you look at the polls by social grade Labour aren't any more popular with DE than with ABC. The conservatives lean slightly DE , Lib Dems heavily ABC and UKIP heavily DE. The conservatives have twice the working class support that labour currently do.

    If anything it is working class support that has collapsed for Labour since he took over.

    ABC1

    CON2015 41-45
    CON 47
    LAB2015 26-29
    LAB 25


    C2DE

    CON2015 27-32
    CON 50
    LAB2015 32-41
    LAB 25

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.n...tz9dxy8t29/SundayTimesResults_170421_VI_W.pdf
     

Share This Page