UK General Election, 2015

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Blue Velvet, Mar 30, 2015.

  1. Blue Velvet Moderator emeritus

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    #1
    Parliament is now dissolved. Election day: Thursday 7 May. 650 seats in total, 326 seats needed for a majority.

    A roundup of recent polling puts Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck, although due to the complications of electoral boundaries, this translates to an overall Labour advantage in key marginals. It's estimated that the Conservatives will need to be regularly polling about 2-3% ahead of Labour to be even in the number of seats.

    Key facts:

    • The Conservative party has not won an overall majority for 23 years.
    • No governing party has increased its party share of votes since 1974.



    Vote Labour.
     
  2. VulchR macrumors 68020

    VulchR

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    #2
    What I do not understand is why Labour are being so negative about the SNP. I know they're worried about middle-England backlash about the SNP, but I would have thought it would have been better to point out that things are so crappy in middle England because the English elected the Tories to power, not becuase of a small minority party in Scotland.
     
  3. Peterkro, Mar 31, 2015
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2015

    Peterkro macrumors 68020

    Peterkro

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    #3
    The difference between the Tories and Labour is so small you'd be hard pressed to get a Rizla between them.Unfortunately a huge amount of people live in that gap,so as usual I'll hold my nose and vote Labour,this time it's personal as I now live in the cretin Simon Hughes constituency and it will give me great satisfaction to toss the homophobic twat out (in spite of being bi-sexual himself he's a complete cockwomble).It is to be hoped the SNP hold the balance of power which will inch Labour to the left.
    As an outside chance what do you think of the possibility of Sinn Fein holding their noses and taking the oath of allegiance thereby using their five seats to again drag the Labour party left (don't think it's going to happen but it is possible).
     
  4. mojolicious macrumors 68000

    mojolicious

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    #4
    I don't think that the Labour Party would for one second entertain the idea of SF forming part of a coalition / voting bloc / whatever. The vast majority of the mainland UK electorate still associate the SF with balaclavas and Kalashnikovs. It would be the mother of all PR disasters.

    If it comes down to the choice between being stuck in opposition or forming a government with SNP backing then I'm sure that Labour will go for the latter, even if they're unwilling to admit it prior to the election.
     
  5. Peterkro macrumors 68020

    Peterkro

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    #5
    You are taking a very naive point of view, certainly Sinn Fien would lose their republican voters although they may get them back if they haul the Labour party to the left.It would be a perhaps a step too far to take the oath of allegiance (I would never take a republican seriously again if they did that) but don't forget the DUP will vote for anyone if they get a sniff of power.I can forsee a situation where SF hold the balance of power and even if they cross their fingers behind their backs they may well do it knowing their supporters will support them.The whole Klashnikovs and Balacava's bollocks will be seen through by voters in many places not least Scotland and London.
     
  6. bandrews macrumors 6502a

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    #6
    Labour are being negative about the SNP because they could potentially lose a lot of Scottish seats to SNP which, combined with their poor track record with Plaid Cymru in Wales could cost them the election.
     
  7. Dagless macrumors Core

    Dagless

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    #7
    I usually vote for one of the big 3, depending on recent performances and policies (and how likely they are to enact them). This time I'll be voting for a smaller party, and no not UKIP :p.

    Worried about UKIP, it's really a toss up between Labour and Conservatives at this point, smaller parties looking more promising... crazy days these.

    https://voteforpolicies.org.uk/ < helpful site if you're still undecided.
     
  8. mojolicious macrumors 68000

    mojolicious

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    #8
    You're the one who's being naïve if you don't believe that should the Labour Party enter into any sort of agreement with SF in order to govern then they won't be crucified by 90% of the UK press for the next five years.

    I don't know how SF MPs taking their seats in the Commons would play with their own voters, but in the (not happening) event of an agreement between the two parties the majority of SF voters are pragmatic enough to wait and see what a Labour government would promise them.

    Regarding the 'Klashnikovs and Balacavas bollocks', it might be ignored in Kilburn and half of Glasgow, but for the rest of the electorate it's very much a part of its perception of SF and will remain so for decades.

    ----------

    I wouldn't be. The might win a seat, but their main contribution to the election will be costing the Tories a couple of dozen marginals. Hopefully.
     
  9. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    #9
    I need some remedial lessons in British government.

    The way you word that makes it sound as if Parliament recently dissolved and that once dissolved an election was called for in a little over a month.

    Is that right?

    Please forgive me for my ignorance of your system and current events. I am, after all, a fine American with tunnel vision that rarely extends beyond my own borders.

    ----------

    How is homophobia expressed in the UK? Is he trying to pass laws against it? Or is he just making statements?
     
  10. anti-microsoft macrumors 68000

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    #10
    UKIP are on track to win 4 seats at best come May. How they'll have anymore "kingmaking" power than the Greens is beyond me...

    Goes to show how the media love kicking up a fuss and inspiring fear.

    I think however the vote goes, our First Past the Post system is the real threat. It needs to change, and even though it will benefit the likes of the SNP this time round, I'm glad they're seeking reform on this issue.

    For anyone in England, Wales or Northern Ireland scared of the SNP, don't be. I think they've made it quite clear that:

    1. They will not enter a formal coalition with Labour, more a vote-by-vote arrangement.
    2. They will do as much as possible to keep the Conservatives out (after all, it is England that swings which way the UK votes as a whole, purely based on the number of constituencies)
    3. They will not vote on issues that are English-only issues, unless they have knock-on effects for Scotland.

    They're position during and after the referendum has always been: For Scotland to win, the rest of the UK doesn't have to necessarily loose.

    They have a reasonable track-record in both minority and majority government in Scotland. Under Nicola Sturgeon's leadership and 75,000 new members, I think the SNP will go on to do great things...

    Including restoring old Labour values to the Labour party, a few of which have seem to have been lost throughout the years...
     
  11. mojolicious macrumors 68000

    mojolicious

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    #11
    The dissolution is a consequence of the setting of a date for the general election, rather than the other way around: "Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 a Parliament is dissolved 25 working days before the general election."

    Upon dissolution MPs cease to be MPs. It basically means everyone (bar the upper echelons of Government, who are usually in safe seats) can campaign for (re)election without the distractions of being in office.

    Everything you ever wanted to know, and more
     
  12. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #12

    How odd. Across the pond, our politicians are constantly campaigning only to be distracted by their jobs.
     
  13. zin macrumors 6502

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    #13
    Under current law, Parliament has terms that are fixed. The Prime Minister used to be able to call an election by asking the Queen to dissolve Parliament whenever he wished, even before the Parliament expired after 5 years. This is no longer the case.

    It is current law that the next election will take place on May 7, therefore the Parliament by law must be dissolved on March 30 (because polling starts a certain number of working days after this).

    The new Government will assume office when the current Prime Minister asks the Queen to summon it, which will be on May 18.

    We don't have any of the fancy codified stuff you Americans have. It's all tradition involving the Queen over here! ;)
     
  14. mojolicious macrumors 68000

    mojolicious

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    #14
    Heh, I don't understand how a President seeking a second term can get anything done. The re-election campaign seems to start around the same time as the inauguration.
     
  15. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    #15
    What's interesting to me is the period leading up to the dissolution. Is there a tendency for that to be a stagnant, "lame duck" period as campaigning and maneuvering for the next election supersede the desire to compromise and legislate?
     
  16. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #16
    some of them don't even let their jobs distract them from campaigning
     
  17. Happybunny macrumors 68000

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    #17
    But WILL the UK will still have a referendum about the EU, and leave.:)
     
  18. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #18
    Why?

    How many Brits died because the Labour Party sent them to Iraq to stop Saddam's mythical WMD program?
     
  19. cambookpro macrumors 603

    cambookpro

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    #19
    A few months out of being able to vote (I can pay income tax, get married, have children, gamble, drive but can't vote on who's going to run the country... :rolleyes: ), but it's definitely going to be a very interesting election.

    I think Labour's seats will be decimated in Scotland by the SNP, though obviously they'll make gains elsewhere in England, probably with large swings from LD. UKIP will do well to get more than a couple of seats, and I'm not sure Farage will even win in his own constituency. Although it's impossible to call right now, if I had to guess I'd say we're heading towards a Labour minority government.

    It's interesting that basically every major party's economic plan centres on reducing the deficit - I read a very interesting article on how the deficit perhaps isn't really that important at all, and really we should focus on growth. Interesting to hear what other people think - I'm personally not completely convinced, but it does make some good arguments. (Article I read is here.)

    Anyway, I'm looking forward to the debate on Thursday - though I'm not sure if it's going to work all that well with seven people!
     
  20. VulchR macrumors 68020

    VulchR

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    #20
    I think Labour might be looking at annihilation in Scotland just like the Tories did. Many people are supporting SNP because they want a fairer society, not because of the independence thing. It is a pity that Labour doesn't hold that high ground any more.
     
  21. Peterkro macrumors 68020

    Peterkro

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    #21
    Homophobia is not really an issue except for some of the loonies in Ukip and the wilder parts of the Tory party.Hughes and Tatchell fought the 1983 by-election possibly the dirtiest campaign in the UK. I lived in the next constituency and campaigned for Tatchell,Hughes fought a dirty campaign based on his sexuality and the fact he was born in Australia.Tatchell has said he forgives Hughes but many others including me do not and now I've moved to his constituency will gladly vote to get him out.

    "The divisions in the Labour Party, which Tatchell's far left views had exposed, and his homosexuality (which he refused to confirm or deny in media appearances), were used against him, in an election campaign widely regarded as one of the dirtiest and most violent in modern British history. Tatchell was assaulted in the street, had his flat attacked, and had a death threat and a live bullet put through his letterbox in the night. Although the Bermondsey seat had long been a Labour stronghold, the Liberal candidate, Simon Hughes, won the election. During the campaign, allegations were made[who?] that some Liberal canvassers stirred up xenophobia and homophobia on the doorsteps, playing up the fact that Tatchell was born in Australia and making an issue of his homosexuality. Members of the Liberal Gay Action Group campaigned wearing lapel badges emblazoned with the words, "I've been kissed by Peter Tatchell" as a protest against the perception that he was attempting to hide his sexuality (see Bermondsey by-election, 1983). One of Hughes' campaign leaflets was condemned[who?] for claiming the election was "a straight choice" between Liberal and Labour, but this phrase is regularly used by many parties within the UK, and Hughes has since apologised for what may have been perceived as an inadvertent slur.[27] Hughes later came out as bisexual in 2006.[28]

    In the mid- and late 1980s, Tatchell wrote books including The Battle for Bermondsey (the story of the by-election), Democratic Defence and a ground-breaking guide to surviving with HIV and AIDS, AIDS: A Guide to Survival. His book Europe in the Pink described the varying laws on homosexuality through the European Union. In 1990 Tatchell sought (unsuccessfully) the Labour nomination for Hampstead and Highgate, but was defeated by actress Glenda Jackson".

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Tatchell


    (see my raising of the possibility of Sinn Fein taking their seats [ain't going to happen,no Republican is going to swear an oath to the Queen] raised hackles,arf)
     
  22. mojolicious macrumors 68000

    mojolicious

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    #22
    Not in the least, sir. But, even ignoring the unlikelihood of SF going to Westminster, Labour simply could not and would not enter into any kind of agreement with them.
     
  23. zin macrumors 6502

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    #23
    Yes, definitely.

    That doesn't mean they won't rush through policy or legislation to prevent the next administration from reversing course, though. Things like privatisations or long-term outsourcing contracts are popular for governments here to get done if they fear they're about to lose (see: Eurostar privatisation earlier this month and the East Coast Rail franchise last month, for instance).

    Oh, and giveaways in the last budget before the election. They tend to be big on scrambling to find as much £££ as possible to entice voters with last minute giveaways.
     
  24. bandrews macrumors 6502a

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    #24
    You live in Bermondsey? I used to live on Grange Road.
     
  25. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #25

    "They smelt of pubs in Wormwood Scrubs."

    Sorry. I love U.K. place names.
     

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