Unemployment drops to 7.8%

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by mcrain, Oct 5, 2012.

  1. mcrain macrumors 68000

    mcrain

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    #1
    In other news, Mitt Romney's speach writers are furiously rewriting their stump speach.

    Everyone knows we were falling off a cliff at the end of the Bush years into the deepest recession anyone had seen since the great depression. What is amazing is that if you compare the numbers, we are basically exactly where we were in January when the President took office (except we are obviously on an upward trajectory instead of falling off the edge).

    When Obama was elected, at the height of the recession, did anyone think we would have been able to dig out in only four years? (Yes, I know... everyone knows... we still have a long way to go to get back to the January when Bush took office) Despite the naysayers and obstructionists, this recovery has been pretty amazing.)
     
  2. Coleman2010 macrumors 68000

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    #2
    If Republicans had voted for President Obama's American Jobs Act the unemployment rate would be lower than when Reagan was reelected.


    Ahh... No wonder they didn't vote for it!
     
  3. applesith macrumors 68030

    applesith

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    #3
  4. mcrain thread starter macrumors 68000

    mcrain

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    #4
    That's awesome news! That means those lazy people living off welfare and unemployment are pulling themselves up by their bootstraps and being productive members of society instead of sucking off the government teat. Sorry, I was anticipating the GOP response.

    Big business needs to bring real, good jobs back to this country and they need to pay living wages or every job will be a lower paying job with less hours.
     
  5. thewitt macrumors 68020

    thewitt

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    #5
    While U-6 stayed flat at 14.7%, largely because the jobs added were mostly temp or part time positions..

    "The broader unemployment rate, known as the “U-6″ for its data classification by the Labor Department, includes everyone in the official rate plus “marginally attached workers” — those who are neither working nor looking for work, but say they want a job and have looked for work recently; and people who are employed part-time for economic reasons, meaning they want full-time work but took a part-time schedule instead because that’s all they could find."

    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/10/05/why-did-the-unemployment-rate-drop-9/
     
  6. applesith macrumors 68030

    applesith

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    #6
    Yes people should bring themselves up by their bootstraps and be productive members of society. Private companies are not reluctant to hire people when they can. Hiring for just the hell of it or at higher wages doesn't make sense.
     
  7. Zombie Acorn macrumors 65816

    Zombie Acorn

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    #7
    After seeing the debate people went to go get a job because the gravy train looks like it may be over :eek:












    ;)
     
  8. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    #8
    For those who wish to use the U-6 figures ...

    If the Obama changed the way we defined unemployment, then that would be one thing.

    If however, 7.8% is measured by the same criteria by which other administrations have been judged, then that is a fair number.
     
  9. likemyorbs macrumors 68000

    likemyorbs

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    #9
    Well this is sure to give Obama a boost, he needs it after his pathetic performance on Wednesday.
     
  10. applesith macrumors 68030

    applesith

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    #10
    Did I say anything about using U6 for some or U3 for others? No. I believe in always looking at the U6 and U3 together to see the discrepancies between the two to see what's actually going on. There is something to be said when U3 decreases while U6 remains nearly constant or has minor decreases.
     
  11. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    #11
    According to this site, here's a chart of U-6 unemployment from 1994 to present. The chart shows that Obama has been successful at lowering that number.

    What's more important in my mind is that the rate of decrease is consistent with other rates of decrease, indicating to me that the real difference here is the height from which these numbers started and not the policies Obama has implemented as being the reason they are still high.

    This has been a little moment of rationality.

    I hope you've enjoyed it.
     

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  12. applesith macrumors 68030

    applesith

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    #12
    Yes and compare that to the U3 (Notice the change in scale because U6 is always greater). U3 has been dropping at a faster rate than the U6. Less people are looking for work or are taking lower paying jobs and/or working less hours.
     

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  13. Bug-Creator macrumors 6502

    Bug-Creator

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    #13
    Huh ?

    When I look at U6 from 2010 till today I see an about 2% drop not much different than in those U3 figures.
     
  14. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    #14
    It seems pretty clear to me that Obama has been successful in bringing these numbers down regardless of how they are measured.

    Again, the only reason the numbers are as high as they are is that they started from a much higher point to begin with.
     
  15. BladesOfSteel macrumors regular

    BladesOfSteel

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    #15
    This number is great for the president, on a political view of things. He can go around and say that he has brought the unemployment rate below 8.

    Congratulations.

    However, I think this number shows that the economy is still very, very bad. This isn't a recovery as Mcrain would like to think.

    Look at the numbers. The general consensus is that the economy has to add 150k jobs monthly for unemployment to stay level. (the 150k number is even widely quoted on MSNBC).

    In September, 114k jobs were added, but yet unemployment dropped? How does that work?

    Oh, more people stopped looking for jobs.
     
  16. eric/, Oct 5, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2012

    eric/ Guest

    eric/

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    #16
    It doesn't really mean much. It could easily change in the next month. If it becomes sustained than it's a huge deal.
     
  17. AhmedFaisal, Oct 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 10, 2013
  18. BladesOfSteel macrumors regular

    BladesOfSteel

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    #18
    Compared to Obama? Yes.
     
  19. AhmedFaisal, Oct 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 10, 2013
  20. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    #20
    I find that highly doubtful. As you can see by the charts below, the rate that unemployment has gone down under the Obama Administration is even greater than the rate it's gone down in previous administrations. I think you'd have a point if Obama's rate was not as dramatic. On what basis do you assume Romney could do better?
     
  21. elistan macrumors 6502a

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    #21
    Actually, no - it's because a lot of people took part-time jobs not reflected in the 114k number.

    These are two different surveys of two different groups. Unemployment rate is determined by asking households "Are you working, looking, etc?" Jobs numbers are determined by asking employers "How many did you hire? Fire?"

    On one hand, 873,000 additional people reported being employed September. Therefore, U3 unemployment rate goes down. But 582,000 of those jobs were part-time jobs. (Actually, AFAIK some other number of people reported taking part-time work, and that was extrapolated to the entire population. It's not like the BLS personally talked to millions of people.)

    On the other hand, employers reported adding 114,000 jobs. (Or rather, again, some number of employers who responded to a survey reported a number of hirings that when extrapolated to the entire US indicated 114k jobs added.)

    Note that there is not necessarily any correlation between the two groups who are surveyed.
     
  22. vega07 macrumors 65816

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    #22
    Right-wingers around the country are calling the numbers cooked.

    I wish they would ****.

    Just stick to your story that the economy is not improving enough.
     
  23. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #23
    Watching the right wing rubes on Twitter claiming Obama cooked the unemployment numbers is priceless.
     
  24. astrorider macrumors 6502

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    #24
    The federal NAEP test shows only 1/3rd of 4th, 8th, and 12th graders are proficient in science and tech, and you're holding education up as your example of things Romney would change for the worse?
     
  25. BladesOfSteel macrumors regular

    BladesOfSteel

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    #25
    And I believe Romney could have done better, given the same situation.

    The bigger the recession/depression, the bigger the comeback, and at a quicker pace. While Obama's rate is all fine and good, had he not stalled the climb with GM bailout money, green jobs kickbacks and obamacare it would have been awesome.
     

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