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Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by mcrain, Dec 2, 2010.
not worth the paper it is printed on unless jobs are being created at a number greater than 125k per month. Other wise it just means more people are giving up looking for work than being added to the work force.
Basicly giving a false unemployment number being done.
At this point the only number that matters is U6.
and job creation numbers.
Also U6 is still way WAY to high to get happy over this.
Ok, so I agree not to be "happy about this" if you agree that we should be pleased that we are heading in the right direction...
The following is from September, and October and November were also positive for job creation.
Those Gallup numbers mean nothing.
Oh wait, too early?
All that is confirmed what I said before. It is not even enough to make it to the break even point. So that means not worth anything. It just means more people added to the workforce that can not find jobs.
Are you seriously saying that the unemployment, underemployment, and job creation numbers show NOTHING? They show no trends? They show no improvement? Nothing? Wow.
So, until things are perfect, the numbers that show things are improving mean nothing? You do realize we were shedding jobs like crazy before, right? (edit) You can't get to the breakeven point until you turn around the damage and start heading back in the right direction. All that is confirmed is that things have turned around and are starting to head in the right direction. You can at least agree that the numbers show that much. Right?
No what I am saying is it means to me is it confirms the unemployment numbers are full of lies and screwed with to much.
When less than 125-150k per month unemployment needs to go up not down.
Basically at this point "official" unemployment numbers means jack **** to me. Job creation is the only numbers worth anything because it is harder to screw with them but I have a feeling that will change in the future as well because people are wising up and seeing the unemployment numbers are only a 1/2 truth.
Why don't you try rereading that sentence?
Those Gallup numbers mean nothing. As in, the information they give in terms of the percentage of people unemployed do not accurately reflect what they are trying to portray.
RP has already point why the Gallup numbers are flawed and inaccurate. So to me, yes, they mean nothing. Unless you like drawing inaccurate conclusions off inaccurate data.
Those numbers are just feel good numbers. For you, I see they've done their job. You looked at the numbers, felt good and decided to post them here.
So, the big a** chart above shows job creation is improving too. So, are you done being debbie downer? Can you admit that you were just being contrary to be contrary. Things are in fact improving compared to what they were?
Why don't you try to show where in the last year Gallup changed their methodology to make the numbers look better or worse.
If they didn't change how they calculate their numbers, regardless of how flawed they are, they still show a trend. You can compare their flawed number from a year ago to their flawed number of today.
Just because the thermometer is broken and shows a temperature that is WRONG, doesn't mean that it can't still show when the temperature is getting warmer or colder.
THE ENTIRE POINT is the trends, not that ONLY 8.8% of the population is unemployed.
Let's asked the millions unemployed above the 8.8%, that Gallup didn't take into account, how they feel then. I'm pretty sure they wouldn't describe RP as 'Debbie Downer' they'd probably say he's 'Realistic Ralph'.
Feel free to show me where I said that the numbers didn't show trends and that jobs weren't being added.
I said that the numbers Gallup gave were inaccurate as they did not accurately show the true number of unemployed people, which is higher than 8.8%.
Why am I so harsh? I refuse to be "happy" about the real unemployment numbers going up. I refuse to start cheering that things are going worse at a very fast past to just a slower pace. End of the day things are getting worse for people not better.
You can cheer about it but I want to make it clear until there are real positive improvement in the employment things are still bad and getting worse. More people are added to work force every day and there is not even enough new jobs to break even much less reduce the millions with out jobs.
I got screwed by the system and I refuse to call it good until I see some real improvement. Right now it just not getting worse at at quick of a pace. But still getting worse out there for millions.
For the contributors who are talking down job numbers, I wonder if this is a neutral critique or if this has a partisan element associated with it?
Where am I in these numbers? I was unemployed for over a year then I got a gig that paid me off the books. Unemployment ran out. Got a 1099 gig that I lost as that company looks to be on their way out of business. How are they counting me since no taxes will be paid on that money until I file for the year?
The thread is worth this sentence.
Gallup in the ORIGINAL POST said unemployment as calculated by Gallup fell from a sucky number to a less sucky number, and the immediate reaction is Gallup's numbers are wrong, don't be happy.
The WHOLE FREAKING POINT is not that things are wonderful, but that the number fell!
What do you not understand?
Inaccurate is still inaccurate.
Unless ignorance is bliss, in which case, please don't bother reading the offending posts.
Can someone please post these accurate numbers? I see that many of you are disagreeing with the numbers and say they are much worse, but I don't see any facts to back it up.
Any of these numbers are likely to be somewhat inaccurate simply because of the nuances of who got what kind of job when, etc. They may also not match our feeling on what is going on, but in the end the trending seems to be at least somewhat positive.
No one is breaking out the champaign but I think we are at least cautiously optimistic that things are starting to turn the corner. So can't we be encouraged by the trend?
Here's another article that explains why the official number and method used to get those numbers is flawed.
Someone posts that at least the numbers are dropping, which is a good sign, and STILL people have to be negative and post that the numbers are flawed, etc.
Instead of combing teh internetz to find reasons to downplay this and be negative about it, how about changing your bloody mindsets and see that while it isn't happening at the speed you want (instant gratification), IT IS HAPPENING.
Glass Half full, everyone... geez.