Violent crime down?!?!

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by lostngone, Feb 20, 2014.

  1. lostngone macrumors demi-god

    lostngone

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    #1
    After the last 3 major mass shootings gun sales have gone through the roof, to the point that gun stores were having a hard time keeping firearms on the shelves and some calibers of ammo are almost impossible to find.

    Yet somehow violent crime in the first half of 2013 is down by over 5% according to the latest FBI numbers, how can this be??? I thought more guns on the street meant more violent crimes???

    http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/preliminary-semiannual-uniform-crime-report-january-june-2013

    Quote: "Preliminary figures indicate that, as a whole, law enforcement agencies throughout the nation reported a decrease of 5.4 percent in the number of violent crimes brought to their attention for the first 6 months of 2013 when compared with figures reported for the same time in 2012."
     
  2. Michael Goff macrumors G3

    Michael Goff

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    #2
    Do you have any statistics that show that there is a higher gun access rate than before? Gun sales are great, but if it's people buying their second, third, fourth gun? It isn't exactly going to be the best 'more guns = more safe' proof.
     
  3. lostngone, Feb 20, 2014
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2014

    lostngone thread starter macrumors demi-god

    lostngone

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    #3
    In this thread I didn't say,
    I was just showing that even with the increase of sales we didn't see an increase in violent crimes.
     
  4. jamezr macrumors G3

    jamezr

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    #4
    Yes…this would seem to go against the theory that more guns mean more violence. But i am sure you won't see that in the evening news……..
     
  5. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    #5
    U.S. reported crime rate is very similar to Canada's, peaking in the 1990's and on a downward trend since then.

    The trend explained ...

    Or not ...


    The one thing I haven't seen put forth is the opinion that increased guns in society are scaring criminals from perpetrating their dark deeds.

    Please cite any reputable source that suggests it. I'd be interested in seeing it.
     
  6. Michael Goff macrumors G3

    Michael Goff

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    #6
    I for one have never argued that more guns means your e necessarily less safe, just that more guns wont make you more safe. Also, I would like to see the change in gun related crimes during that time.
     
  7. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    #7
    Whose theory?

    Please source.
     
  8. jamezr macrumors G3

    jamezr

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    #8
    The theory in other threads in this section that guns are causing more violence and should be banned or more strictly controlled than they are presently.
    I will let you find them on your own.....
     
  9. lannister80 macrumors 6502

    lannister80

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    #9
    Maybe violent crime would be down EVEN MORE if not for the flood of guns.

    There are many variables at play here.
     
  10. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

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    #10
    I made a penny selling all my stuff at the height of the crisis :D

    it will be a while before I get my toys back. still it is better to be able to have the CHOICE to defend your loved ones if the need EVER arises

    [​IMG]

    ----------

    "Maybe" some thugs realized that there are laws protecting citizens out there who defend themselves from crime while on the streets, not just at home.
     
  11. ElectronGuru macrumors 65816

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    #11
    Where is the thread about abortion and crime rate?
     
  12. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    #12
    So by "theory" you really mean "other people's personal opinion" which are often wrong ... on both sides of this issue.

    That's why I prefer to rely on science. One study that I (and others) have cited a number of times talks about the increased risk of homicide and suicide that one takes on when owning a firearm.

    But I think one needs to be careful to note what that study is comparing. The increased risk is compared to people who don't own firearms. It says nothing about crime rate increasing or decreasing. It's comparing people who own and don't own firearms. Even if crime is decreasing overall, that higher risk remains.

    So it's important to understand exactly what that theory is claiming.

    Here's another example, an excerpt from a brief article originally published in the British Medical Journal [bolding mine] ...


    If you read this incorrectly you might assume that it states, "if you have more guns you will have an increase in violence" and you'll wonder why the U.S. is seeing a drop in violent crimes despite an increased number of firearms. But that isn't what that article is stating. Just as with the other study it matters who you're comparing and what claims you're making based on that comparison.

    I'd suggest that you're falling for the age-old habit of mashing opposing opinion into a "theory" that doesn't really exist, but one that fits your assumptions.

    So let's examine the science instead. IMO, it's a much better place to start from.
     
  13. Raid macrumors 68020

    Raid

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    #13
    I think you are looking for the freakonomics article.
     
  14. tgara macrumors 6502a

    tgara

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    #14
    Increased gun sales are due in part to the President demonizing gun owners and the gun industry.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-20/record-u-s-gun-production-as-obama-demonized-on-issue.html

     
  15. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #15
  16. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

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    #16
    Clinton set a bad example, the people simply took precautions, others like myself made a pretty penny by selling everything :D
     
  17. vrDrew macrumors 65816

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    #17
    There are probably hundreds of factors that go into the overall drop in violent crime: increased rates of incarceration, demographic factors; changes in policing strategies; and the greater economic environment.

    One thing that plays very little, if any, role is the number of guns bought and played with by scared, silly, middle-aged white men.

    Oh, it might add the tiniest statistical uptick in the number of suicides and accidental shootings. But Joe Sixpack buying yet another AR-15 or bull pup M17 isn't going to do anything at all to discourage the wife-beater down the street or the drunken bar fight across town.

    The most interesting theory I've come across is the one that suggests a strong link between the elimination of environmental lead and the lowering of crime.

    Note: At one time I worked in the paint business. I can remember quite vividly how the old-time house painters bewailed the fact that lead had been banned from paint since the late 1970s. In all fairness, lead paints did have have a unique silky glow. But seeing the terrible damage lead does to people who are exposed to it - we should be grateful indeed it is gone from our gas tanks and window frames.
     
  18. jamezr macrumors G3

    jamezr

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    #18
    The problem i have is comparing the US with other countries. There is no other country like the US in the world. The conditions that exist here do not exist anywhere else. We can only compare US to US.
     
  19. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #19
    Wait so Clinton set a bad example did he? Must be why firearms deaths dropped so much while he was president...

    image.jpg
     
  20. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #20
    How many other countries have you visited?
     
  21. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

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    #21
    [​IMG]
    did they drop because of the ban? :)
     
  22. astrorider macrumors 6502

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    #22
    This seems like a good starting point for sources:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/More_Guns,_Less_Crime#Reception
     
  23. ElectronGuru macrumors 65816

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    #23
    Thank you.


    I prefer this one myself. To the OP: the problem with applying anything to the overall rate is the raw number of possible factors. Even with all the ability to isolate causality from correlation with lead, we would need to put lead back into the equation to know for sure. And the only lead still in wide consumer use is in bullets.
     
  24. jamezr macrumors G3

    jamezr

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    #24
    That question makes no sense....
    Why? Would that affect my ability to read? Are you from the US?
     
  25. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #25
    It would affect your ability to credibly claim the US can't be compared to other countries.

    ----------

    Who knows?
     

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