Wall Street tanks…. Recession is coming?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Solomani, Aug 14, 2019.

  1. Solomani macrumors 68040

    Solomani

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    #1
  2. Solver, Aug 14, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2019

    Solver macrumors 6502a

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    #2
    A recession IS coming.
    When is the trillion dollar question.
     
  3. LordVic macrumors 603

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    #3
    It's coming. all the indicators are there. the world playing trade games with the biggest players (US, CHINA) willingly screwing over their own peoples to prove points.

    The rest of the world will just be along for the ride.

    the Fed dropping rates already showed a lack of consumer spending confidence. we're also 10ish years off the last recession, and these things tend to be cyclical.

    the US Gov could be trying to stem off recession by not doing partisan tax cuts and upping spending on infrastructure projects (which keep people working and help stimulate economic circulation). but alas, more Tariffs and tax cuts for vote pandering is the name of the game.


    Just hope that the rest of us can make it through this recession as smooth as possible while the US and China play their moronic games. Because there's zero confidence in Trump having any clue on what to do to try and reduce a recessions impact. (This is the international opinion)
     
  4. Solomani thread starter macrumors 68040

    Solomani

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    IF the stock market indicators are fairly accurate…. then it's most likely within a year?

    But again, still speculation, which is why there is a ? at the end of the thread title.

    IMHO…. there has to be other solid indicators as well, to really point to recession. For example, if the number of unemployment rises significantly in the next few months, or maybe if the home sales suddenly show a sharp decline in the next few months….. then we're really on to something.
     
  5. Falhófnir macrumors 68040

    Falhófnir

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  6. NT1440 macrumors G5

    NT1440

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    The Manufacturing sector (the canary in the coal mine) is already officially in global recession.

    While I’m sure we’ll blame the match strike on the trade wars, it can’t be blamed for the absurd levels of corporate debt (record levels yet again) and over leveraging (again, historical records) that is going to fuel a bigger recession than 07/08.

    We fixed nothing, we learned nothing. The question is whether we’re going to let our corporate overlords get away with it yet again.
     
  7. LordVic macrumors 603

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    #7
    There are many ways for a recession to hit. The last one was housing and de-regulation related, but hat also helped keep it fairly localized in country

    The current issues I believe are going to be even bigger as we are dealing directly with trade. If the stock market tanks because of it, that will wipe out trillions of dollars in equity almost over night.

    the biggest money owners aren't going to accept that and will demand corporations they sit on the boards to to cut costs to increase margins in a futile attempt to pump stock value back up. This unfortunately will snowball, since cutting costs at the bottom almost always ends up cutting staff. less people working for less money.

    our modern day reliance on the stock market for an economic barometer is a recipe for disaster.

    I think it'll be within the next 1-2 years. 6 months if Trump does something serious to hurt stock prices.
     
  8. Rhonindk macrumors 68040

    Rhonindk

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    #8
    Prediction: 2021 or 2022.

    Right now it looks to be more supposition and rumor than anything substantive.
    I don't see Trump or his administration putting the holiday season at risk.
     
  9. Solomani thread starter macrumors 68040

    Solomani

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    #9
    Yup. And as an example, most of the major urban areas (like LA, NYC, SF, Seattle, etc) are in another over-priced housing bubble again. Home prices are at near-record highs. And of course, the average young American family cannot afford a starter home. Sounds similar to the Housing Market (subprime) crash the catalyzed the 07-08 recession. We didn't learn our lesson.
     
  10. duffman9000 macrumors 68000

    duffman9000

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    Of course we’ll bail them out. And then another ******* will come along and say that the rules are constraining business and it will happen all over again.
     
  11. dannyyankou macrumors G3

    dannyyankou

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    #11
    Yield curve has inverted. For those that know anything about economics, this isn’t good at all.

    37AC95E8-31C6-4965-A8CE-F4066792A2C9.png
     
  12. jkcerda macrumors 6502a

    jkcerda

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    #12
    only the big dogs get bailed out, the little dogs like my shop are left to rot :(

    for the record there should be no bailouts.
     
  13. dannyyankou macrumors G3

    dannyyankou

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    #13
    One thing I see democrats and republicans agree on a lot. So it makes you wonder why it happens so often.
     
  14. Rogifan macrumors Core

    Rogifan

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  15. Rhonindk macrumors 68040

    Rhonindk

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    #15
    Very location dependent I suspect. I lived here in LA through the last "bubble". Prices here in LA didn't really change much in areas I am interested in (coastal). It just took weeks instead of days to sell on average. What I bought my place in Ventura a few years back, houses in the same area are going pretty much for the price they were back then. Sales have slowed on the lower end but high end homes are still moving so are some of the older neighborhoods. The number of listings has also dropped.

    Yes, I am looking at opportunities in my area. Doesn't look like we will get much of a buyers market for a couple of years yet.
     
  16. yaxomoxay macrumors 68040

    yaxomoxay

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    #16
    yep.
     
  17. Solver macrumors 6502a

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    #17
    Because it has gotten really easy for politicians to spend other people’s money.
     
  18. LIVEFRMNYC macrumors 604

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    I have a good amount of funds in my brokerage account, just waiting on another recession. Last recession I cleaned up well.
     
  19. Chew Toy McCoy macrumors regular

    Chew Toy McCoy

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    #19
    I get a good laugh when people thank or blame a single presidential administration for the state of the economy when it’s both parties that allow top players to game the system for short term profits over stability and realistic growth and we throw out terms like “cyclical”, “correction”, and “normal” like it’s unavoidable. It’s completely predictable and avoidable.
     
  20. stylinexpat macrumors 65816

    stylinexpat

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    #20
    If it it’s up 500 points tomorrow I will open up another short position :)
     
  21. mikef07 macrumors 6502

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    #21
    You apparently did not understand what happened last time and it is no where near the same thing. Almost all homes that are bought have a minimum of 20% equity and most far more. Houses are not over priced. Houses are priced for what they can sell for which is why they are still selling. Last time houses were underwater. Not the case this time. Last time people had liar loans (Stated income). Not the case this time. Last time people were in interest only loans with no payback of any principal for many years. Not the case this time. Last time people were in teaser rates. Not the case this time. Last times risky mortgages were packaged in MBS and sold without proper risk assessment. Not the case this time.
     
  22. senseless macrumors 68000

    senseless

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    My junior high school history is coming back to me now. Something about the Smoot-Hawley tariff act of 1930...
     
  23. yaxomoxay macrumors 68040

    yaxomoxay

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    All this volatility is just good for speculators.
     
  24. Rogifan macrumors Core

    Rogifan

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    It will be if Trump keeps acting like a moron. Now he’s blaming the Fed and Hong Kong. And keeps referring to an inverted yield curve. I guarantee you he doesn’t have a clue what an inverted yield curve is. Oh and he appointed Powell to lead the Federal Reserve, so if Powell is the problem he only has himself to blame.
     
  25. pshufd macrumors 65816

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    #25
    Global markets have been tanking since Summer 2018. The US has been relatively strong and I note that the $SPX is down 7% from its all-time-high less than a month ago and is up 14% YTD. Q2 earnings are running at +2.2% YoY and CPI was reported at +2.1% yesterday. Does this sound like a recession to you? Of course not. Do the employment numbers sound like a recession to you? Of course not. What does sound like a recession? South Korea. China. Japan. Singapore. Germany. The US is getting dragged down by the rest of the world. Can you predict when we will see a recession? I don't think so. The Federal Reserve has a lot of bullets in the chamber before even having to resort to unconventional measures. Is a recession coming? Absolutely. But I would expect to see an earnings recession before a classical recession. And we need to see two quarters of earnings declines for that. Q2 is showing earnings growth which means that we would have to have earnings declines in Q3 and Q4 and we'd have to wait until at least the end of January to declare an earnings recession and I'd expect at least one quarter before a classical recession would hit.
     

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