Wall Street

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by MBX, Sep 17, 2008.

  1. MBX macrumors 65816

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2006
    #1
    We're ****ed. The U.S. + Worldwide economy is going down the drain.

    Life was so comfy just a few years ago. Then Bush came into power, the bogus 9/11 war and everything else it brought with it. And i guess just masses of stupid people who thought they need material stuff they can't afford really but take on credit.
     
  2. forcesteeler macrumors 6502

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2007
    #2
    USA- RIP 2009.

    It was fun while it lasted. Everybody cannot stay on top forever just like the

    Ancient Egyptians
    Rome
    Engish Empire
    Nazi Germany
    USA?
     
  3. miloblithe macrumors 68020

    miloblithe

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2003
    Location:
    Washington, DC
    #3
    Nazi Germany doesn't exactly cut it as a long-lasting great power. You might want to replace them on that list with Spain, the Ottoman Empire, Russian Empire, Mongol Empire, China....
     
  4. Rodimus Prime macrumors G4

    Rodimus Prime

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2006
    #4
    hate to tell you this but the current problems are not largely caused by Bush. Yes partly but largely no.
    The housing problem has been building for years. Bush not at fault for it. It was more the fed rate got dropped near or at record lows after 9-11 and though 2002-2004. So a lot of people where getting 5 year ARM. It is 2008 a little over 5 years after these record low interested rates and 5 ARM where made. So it just started a domino effect.

    The record low was not Bushes fault. The housing problem started building a long time before Bush. It just came crashing down as ARM started going up in rates and very quickly from like 3-4% to 8+% it is going to hurt.

    The economy look at history it goes up and down over 6-10 years. It been 6 years since the last true boom and now it is going down. Hell the entire world is going down. Not Bushes fault.

    Reason people blame bush. PEOPLE ARE IDIOTS and just want to blame one person. They can not handle the truth or take the time to look at the history.


    Not that I expect any one to get this far but Bush is an idiot and a crappy president. I am glad he is leaving office. either to candidate is better than him and they both are pieces of crap. I think they both are going to make more of a mess and I do not want either one in office.
     
  5. MBX thread starter macrumors 65816

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2006
    #5
    When i say Bush i don't mean one person. I'm rather talking about this era, about the Bush administration and everything that came with it incl. the congress and the feds. Those entities usually go hand in hand with an era or regime.

    But again i don't really blame just the Bush administration.
     
  6. Rodimus Prime macrumors G4

    Rodimus Prime

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2006
    #6
    you clearly made it look like bush.

    Looking back at history many of the problems today (credit crunch) date back to early 90's. During Clinton terms in office.

    Clinton had years to head them off before they would of gotten out of hand.

    Bush should of tired harder but during his time many of the problems where already to big to solve.
     
  7. Desertrat macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2003
    Location:
    Terlingua, Texas
    #7
    I'd have to say it's a bit more complex than looking at just the government, or any particular part of it or timing.

    For instance: The last time we had really hard times was when Volcker raised interest rates high to stop the inflation that had started with LBJ's guns'n'butter and continued on through Nixon and Carter. 1981/1982 were rough.

    As a society, we basically screamed that we didn't want hard landings at the end of any sort of boom period. So, the Fed and the Treasury worked to juggle interest rates and money supply to give us the soft landings after those early 1980s.

    All well and good, but true corrections were merely deferred. 1987's meltdown was short-lived. Same sort of soft landing for the Bush I recession. Clinton presided over the dot-com bubble of good times, and then came another soft landing that led to the housing bubble.

    Too much free Bubble-Up, and now it's way past time to burp the baby. We've avoided what would have been rather mild hard landings, and now it's time for the Biggie.

    What's happening now is offering proof that the Austrian school of economic theory was correct, and the Keynesians have been wrong.

    Interesting times...

    'Rat
     
  8. jplan2008 macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2008
    #8
    As people have mentioned in a lot of threads, deregulation plays a big part, which started with Reagan, and continued through George W.

    Bush's "Three trillion dollar war" has also played a big part.

    If you truly believe this is just a normal six-year cycle, this interview will be far too long for you, but for anyone who's interested (also has real casualty numbers and information about the no-bid contracts, and treatment of veterans, etc.), here's the link, or buy the book:

    http://www.democracynow.org/2008/2/29/exclusive_the_three_trillion_dollar_war
     
  9. Prof. macrumors 601

    Prof.

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2007
    Location:
    Chicago
    #9
    FOR SALE: The United States of America​
    PRICE: Best offer accepted​

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Ugg macrumors 68000

    Ugg

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2003
    Location:
    Penryn
    #10
    Can you imagine how disastrous this crunch would have been if bushco had privatized social security?
     
  11. Desertrat macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2003
    Location:
    Terlingua, Texas
    #11
    Back to regulation for a moment: Remember Long Term Capital Management? Directed by Nobel Laureates in Economics? In 1998 they lost $4.6 billion. TreasSec Rubin directed a bailout, by such as Lehman, Morgan Stanley and others of a consortium.

    At that time, Credit Default Swaps, CDS, were but a blip on the horizon. Now, they total some $62 trillion. Tell me: What regulations in place before 1998 would have mattered? And, if something does not exist, how could you write regulations concerning such an activity? Further, as CDS developed, they were regarded as wise insurance against losses--so what's to regulate?

    Remember Enron? That collapse began with wrong estimates of the direction of CDS movements. That's what cost Enron the money that the directors tried to recapture by crookedness. Question: Who even knew that such estimates could go so wrong? Same for the Barclay's bank failure which began in Singapore with wrong estimates on these derivatives.

    The insiders at such as Bear Stearns admitted in public that they did not fully understand all the computer programs which directed the investment/trading decisions. What outsider could? What would a regulator regulate? "Thou shalt not use computer models?" Or, "Thou shalt not develop complex trading models?"

    Then you have the ancient people problem: Who's gonna write the regs? Anybody smart enough to foresee all the ramifications isn't gonna be some GS-9 at the SEC. He's gonna be making several million bucks a year at some equivalent of Lehman. And having a typical GS-9 write such regs is about like having a blacksmith teach brain surgery at med school.

    This stuff is way too complex to regulate. An outsider can see trends for good or ill, but the details remain mysterious to insider and outsider alike. How do you regulate a trend?

    'Rat
     
  12. pooky macrumors 6502

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2003
    #12
    It's really incredible the amount of overreaction people seem to be having. Yes, the economy is in a major downturn. Yes, the r-word is appropriate, even if the government refuses to use it. Yes, some aspects of the situation are nearly unprecedented.

    But it's not the end of the world. Nor the end of society. Nor the end of the USA. It's not even the end of the USA as a world power. It's a correction. An admittedly big one, and one that will be painful for many people. But governments and nations have weathered such corrections many times in the past, and they will continue to do so in the future.

    I wonder if most of the crowd that screams about the end of the world is younger? Young enough that they don't remember previous tough times?
     
  13. Thanatoast macrumors 6502a

    Thanatoast

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2002
    Location:
    Denver
    #13
    Well, after the last eight years of "you deserve everything you want" is it any wonder people are freaking out? Our leaders have been telling us bedtime stories about the economy for decades. They said that de-regulation and the "invisible hand" would make everyone prosperous, and they finally got the chance to implement it. Now we've found that the opposite is true. We're betrayed.

    I just wish the asshats who got us into this mess would actually have some hardship put upon them. Sadly, they're all bazillionaires who can now live off their ill-gotten lucre
     
  14. solvs macrumors 603

    solvs

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2002
    Location:
    LaLaLand, CA
    #14
    Not exactly, but his administration and the GOP in Congress paid a much larger part than some of you seem to think. As I've posted, and as Eliot Spitzer pointed out just before getting caught, Bush's HUD dept (which was filled with his cronies) was threatening to cut off funding to states who enacted already put in place regulation to deal with some of the issues with sub prime mortgages. Issues that came about because of people like Phil Graham cutting back regulation, supported by the Bush administration pushing their own cuts to those who would oversea such things, allowing for speculation with oil pricing, and a list of other things along the same lines. Not to mention the ever increasing national debt, which isn't helping either.

    So yeah, we kinda can blame the GOP and Bush administration, who could have helped against the impending disaster, but instead made things far worse.
     
  15. Desertrat macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2003
    Location:
    Terlingua, Texas
    #15
    Gramm's contribution, from Wikipedia:

    "Later in his Senate career, Gramm spearheaded efforts to pass banking reform laws, including the landmark Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act in 1999, which served to reduce government regulations in existence since the Great Depression separating banking, insurance and brokerage activities.

    Years later, critics of Gramm point out that this same legislation may have been pivotal in encouraging the corporate practices that led to the 2008 mortgage crises in America."

    Who was president in 1999? Y'know, the guy who signed off on the bill?

    You might take a browse through http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gramm-Leach-Bliley_Act

    Note the vote margin in the House of Representatives, and the input from the Democrats in Congress as well as from the White House.

    Something to consider about the motivations for all this consolidation of economic power: All these financials are competing with those of other nations. For a while, a Japanese bank had the largest accumulation of assets. Now, IIRC, it's China, unless one of the sovereign wealth funds such as that of Dubai is larger.

    'Rat
     
  16. Wotan31 macrumors 6502

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2008
    #16
    O RLY?
     
  17. Wotan31 macrumors 6502

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2008
    #17
    I just love all this doom and gloom talk. It's easy to blow things out of proportion, particularly when the media is feeding the frenzy as they always do.

    The fact is there will always be ups and downs. The Great Depression was *far* worse than today's economy, and even that faded after a few years.

    Want in on a little insider secret? "Buy low sell high". Yes thats right! A novel concept isn't it? You buy real estate and stock when the market is down, then watch them appreciate as the market recovers, then dump them at the peak and reap your rewards. Easy!

    Unfortunately, loads of people bought homes at the peak of the housing bubble and now they're defaulting on their loans. Remember the Tech Stock bubble? Same thing, if you bought at the peak, you got screwed big time.

    If anyone is responsible for this down economy, it's the idiots who bought more home than they could afford, and the idiots who lent them the money. And the idiots who lent money to people with awful credit records who never should have been approved for a mortgage in the first place. This is the real source of the economic conditions today, and why the Fed is having to bail out Fannie and Freddie and AIG and...

    But I suppose it's just easier to blame Bush.
     

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