We might have a fight on our hands with Iran

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by darksithpro, Aug 27, 2018.

  1. darksithpro macrumors 6502a

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    #1
    Iran just came out and said they have full control of the Strait of Hormuz. They're going to bully and control all commercial ships going in and out from what they claim.

    http://thehill.com/policy/defense/403748-iran-no-need-for-us-navy-in-gulf

    "A general in Iran said Monday that the country has control of the Persian Gulf and warned the U.S. Navy to not have a presence there, Reuters reported.

    General Alireza Tangsiri, the head of the navy of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, told Tasnim news that Iran has control of the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

    “We can ensure the security of the Persian Gulf and there is no need for the presence of aliens like the U.S. and the countries whose home is not in here,” he said, according to Reuters. “All the carriers and military and nonmilitary ships will be controlled and there is full supervision over the Persian Gulf. Our presence in the region is physical and constant and night and day.”

    Additionally, Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari said any conflict between Iran and its enemies “will not be beneficial” for Iran’s enemies."
     
  2. Eraserhead macrumors G4

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  3. rafark macrumors 6502a

    rafark

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  4. DearthnVader macrumors 6502a

    DearthnVader

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    #4
    Concerning news for peaceniks.

    I mean the hippy in me doesn't want to see this, but then I gotta love some doom p0rn.
     
  5. mtneer macrumors 68030

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  6. RootBeerMan macrumors 65816

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    Just the usual sabre rattling from their military. Not going to worry my head about it. Of more worry is the idiot Trump pushing them around when had a perfectly good deal with them vis a vis their nuclear program. Trump really looks like he wants a war and has picked out Iran to be the one he does it to. As @rafark said, "their sea, their rules. Their border runs halfway out to the middle of the gulf and the Strait is overlooked by them. They are in a unique position to control it. And, as has been pointed out many times in the past, the American vessels there in the Gulf are sitting ducks. I wouldn't want to be a sailor on one of them for all the tea in China.
     
  7. cube macrumors P6

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  8. RootBeerMan macrumors 65816

    RootBeerMan

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  9. cube macrumors P6

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    #9
    Yes, they also have shore-based anti-ship missiles.
     
  10. darksithpro thread starter macrumors 6502a

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    #10
    And the narrowest point across is only 21 miles.
     
  11. A.Goldberg macrumors 68020

    A.Goldberg

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    They can claim control all they want. It doesn’t really mean anything unless they start a blockade or interfere with shipping.

    They should also be reminded the last time they tried a blockade in the 80’s. The US Navy pretty much decimated half the Iranian Navy in a single day.

    Times have changed a bit, things would probably be a little more complex, but Iran does now have some decent technologies and theoretically appealing tactics, but we also have a lot of new technologies as welll. Iran probably wouldn’t last more than a
    few days. The US wouldn’t be the only country to be upset about this either so Iran’s chances are even bleaker.

    Forming a blockade Iran risks losing much of their naval force, for the second time. At worst the US and it’s allies instead of addressing the blockade directly could opt for the more severe option and decimate Iran’s infrastructure all over their country choking off their navy that way- which in a way might even be easier.

    I suspect given that a blockade has occurred before and the Straight of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, I’m sure the US Navy has numerous plans to deal with the problem if it arises.

    I doubt Iran is stupid enough to have this amount to anything.
     
  12. VulchR macrumors 68020

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  13. lowendlinux Contributor

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    I'm confused what does a USN gas station have anything to to do with the straight of Hormuz?
     
  14. A.Goldberg macrumors 68020

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    They have plenty of land based anti-ship missiles and SAMs- most of which are S300’s or older. Recent history shows they’re reluctant to use these due to the extremely expensive cost of use. Their Air Force is pretty dated in terms of aircraft. If Iran was stupid enough to block the Straight of Hormuz the US and it’s allies would probably first come through and wipe out Iran’s air defenses and missile batteries. After clearing the air space, they could then safely track and destroy Iran’s submarines. After that, naval ships could move in and address Iran’s larger naval ships and sweep any mines. As for the small swarm boats they’d probably wipe them out with missile equipped helicopters or maybe even something like A10’s. Naval ships can also use their smaller missile systems, rail guns, and laser weapons. It would all probably end pretty quickly without many casualties.

    As I mentioned earlier, the alternative would be ignoring the blockade and obliterate Iran’s mainland infrastructure to choke off their Navy.

    Iran could potentially inflict a fair amount of damage if they utilized the element of surprise in forming a blockade because of the limited US resources in the area. But I imagine now that they’ve used incendiary language more US resources are on their way. That said, blocking the straight would piss off pretty much everyone else so the US wouldn’t be the only country who would retaliate. The only country that might support Iran is Syria but their hands are full with their civil war and the last thing they want to do is get into a direct conflict with the US.

    In conclusion, I think Iran’s statement is all just a bunch of show with no substance.
     
  15. matrix07 macrumors 601

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    I’m surprised people worried about Iran blocking Hormuz. Like @A.Goldberg said it’d been done before & didn’t succeed. Giving the restless atmosphere in Iran now with all the protests I very doubt they would even want to try, and much less they could succeed.
    Their missiles positions will be a sitting duck and it will open the door for US to destroy as many as Iranian military installations as they so choose. One target might even be the nuclear facility Israel is looking at.
     
  16. cube macrumors P6

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    #16
    They also have lots of howitzers.
     
  17. BoxerGT2.5 macrumors 68000

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    If it affects other countries commerce then let them deal with it. Bring in the almighty Hungarian navy and let them start swinging, that should pull the rest of the EU in and they could actually stand up and take a LEADING AND ACTIVE role in something for once instead of huddling around Brussels simply to talk about it.
     
  18. VulchR macrumors 68020

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    #18
    It is also an airbase (think B52's, B1's, B2's). I'm pretty certain that if Iran kicked off with its navy, Trump would respond by not only destroying ships but also destroying bases and oil facilities.
     
  19. ActionableMango macrumors G3

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    #19
    That would be an astonishing admission on their part. But I read the entire article twice trying to find where they made that claim and I cannot find what you are referring to.
     
  20. stylinexpat macrumors 65816

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    In case you forgot, Israel does the same with Palestine. The Palestinians get bullied and are not allowed to have ships coming in and out freely or allowed to trade freely. If you support free trade then you should allow all countries to trade freely including Iran. If you are going to impose trade restrictions upon others then others will also impose the same upon you. This is common sense.
     
  21. lowendlinux Contributor

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    #21
    Meanwhile back at the ranch Iran can impose anything they'd like but can enforce virtually nothing.
     
  22. stylinexpat macrumors 65816

    stylinexpat

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    You must remember that there was no unanimous vote at the UN to impose a trade embargo upon them meant to create a financial crisis upon them in order to destabilize their government
     
  23. lowendlinux Contributor

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    I shall restate anyone can impose anything few can actually enforce, if the Iranian navy wants to see the difference they'll block the strait.
     
  24. stylinexpat macrumors 65816

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    #24
    If One has the ability or capability to steal or bully others that does not make theft and bullying right or acceptable.
     
  25. lowendlinux Contributor

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    #25
    Welcome to realpolitik
     

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78 August 27, 2018