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Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by wordmunger, Nov 4, 2008.
Fivethirtyeight.com says that over two million Americans were polled in this election. Were you?
It still hurts.
No. None of my family was polled either.
I think this poll has a dangerous probability of becoming self-aware.
I was not.
If you were polled why are there no "yes" votes in this poll ?
I was thinking the same thing. Maybe they didn't vote, just posted a comment? Maybe they posted in the wrong thread...
While my comment was just being silly, seeing as I have not actually been polled, I didnt see the point to ruin the actual poll.
I was polled twice. First time was in August and then about 10 days ago.
I passed a pollster leaving my polling place but she talking to another voter.
Ha ha ha... now that you say that, your post is funny. I guess I wasn't thinking that way when I read it.
Interesting results so far -- way more people than expected have been polled. With around 200 million voters nationwide, only about 1 percent should have been polled.
Of course, people who've been polled are much more likely to respond to this poll! But ten times more likely?
No, but I got a robocall today.
I've gotten at least 20 robocalls. Plus about 50 direct-mailings. That's what you get for being in a new "swing state."
I haven't been polled, though. (Most polls are now robocalls too!)
That'll larn ya to take off your Halloween costume before election day!
Nope, no polling for me either.
The poll results to me mean pretty much nothing. All it means is that "of the people that have been 'polled', the results are...."
So, you ask a different group of people, you'll get a different answer. They need to either ask everyone, or ask a diverse group of people.
Sure, if you ask a selection of Democrats, you'll get a larger percentage of Democrat answers.
If you ask a majority of Republicans, you'll get a larger percentage of people in favor of the Republican candidate.
For a poll to mean anything, you need to ask a roughly comparable number of Republicans, Democrats, Independents, Undeclared's, and so on. And, you need to pull the sample from all over the country.
So, say 4 million of each, with only a few from each given district / county permitted.
If you pull your respondents from similar areas, and similar life styles, you'll get common answers.
I don't really see any way for a Poll to mean anything significant.
All it means is that they asked a bunch of people, and this is what those people said. Ask other people, and they'll say something different.
And, then there's those who will lie to you because they don't want to admit being in favor of the other candidate.
All that really matters is the final vote.
Personally, I believe that the polls are more a "tool" to get people to believe that everyone wants someone in particular, and therefore gain your vote for that individual because you will naturally think he must be better if everyone else wants him.
Oddly, I received no robocalls. I was at my mom's on Sunday and she got 3 in the 6 hours I was there. She lives one county over.
Where'd you get the 4 million figure? That's not at all necessary statistically speaking. You're right that it's important to get a broad statistical sample, though. Pollsters are actually on top of this. They also know there are many other sources of error, such as people who don't have land-lines, people who don't like to answer polls, people who won't actually vote, etc.
A random but substantially large number to insure a wide sample.
Obviously better than say we asked 10 people and 6 of them said that they like candidate X, so 60% are for candidate X.
Likewise, I don't think a few thousand would be substantially large enough to provide an accurate estimate for a country this large. Maybe a few thousand from each state, and if you grab a few from each county / district. But, then you'd still find that you only had around 100K people sampled, and they could still be 100K people who don't accurate represent who will show up to vote.
If this is what I think it means..... LOL... that is pretty good. If not, carry on.
My parents work for the State of Washington and the house got a phone call one night. I can't recall who/what organization called but the question was something like "Who are you going to vote for Governor?" I answered Democratic candidate. I think I answered for my parents. Oh well.
The political party comes second to the individual for me. I first evaluate the person, and then consider the implications of their party.
If I truly like the candidate, but have concerns about the party's current trends, then I consider whether the individual shares those views or whether they will stand up against their party in those areas.
This years ballot had a mix of Republicans and Democrats when I was done filling it in.
But I was polled over and over about stuff in 2004, but this year, not one call, not even a robot spam call asking me to vote for anybody. But I got a call or two about propositions on the ballot.
But I must have received 20 e-mails from the Obama campaign, and a few asked questions, so I guess that could be considered polling but I never answered anything. For many months I knew he was going to win and I liberally gave the Democrats a lot of nods on the ballot, but for Prez, it was Green Party for me this time around. I am still very happy for Obama's huge win and hopeful in the long term.
I tried to get exit polled after I saw a woman writing down my demographics. I go out of my way to try and get polled, because I believe voters are influenced by them.
I live in Oregon.
Presidents and would-be's don't bother campaigning here. I don't get robo calls. I don't get polled.
I was lucky enough to see Obama speak three times though, twice here in Eugene on campus (primary race) at the Univ. of Oregon and when I was working in Berlin this summer.