What about Kosovo?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Ugg, Dec 6, 2007.

  1. Ugg macrumors 68000

    Ugg

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    The way I see it is the outcome of the Kosovo question has little to do with Serbia and everything to do with Putin's muscle flexing.

    Should the EU support Kosovo's bid for independence, which IMO is a sure thing, Putin will cut off or at least threaten to cut off gas supplies to Europe.

    The Serbs really don't want war, they want a shot at EU entry, they've suffered enough from Slobodan's failed "Greater Serbia" campaign of the 90s. Kosovoans don't want war, they've suffered enough under Slobodan and their own inability to reign in corruption.

    Sure, there are a lot of hard liners out there who think that "principles" are ultimately more important than the lives of their grandchildren. There will probably be some guerilla fighting but unless Putin provides Serbia with its own noose, I doubt there will be major conflict.

    The question is, will Putin win?


     
  2. Sayhey macrumors 68000

    Sayhey

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    I find it very unlikely that Russia would cut off gas supplies to Europe. This trade makes enormous amounts of money for Russia and they are not going to sacrifice this for the Serbians. Certainly they might veto any Security Council resolution on Kosovo, but beyond that I think we are talking mostly bluster from Putin. Nor do I think the Serbians can really follow through on these rogue military threats.

    However, I'm not even sure you can find unanimity among the EU on how to handle this question. There are a lot of European states who are made very nervous by independence for Kosovo because of national minorities within their own borders. We will see, but my bet is the Kosovars declare independence on their own while the EU tries to figure out what to do. What happens next is anyone's guess, but a unrecognized, but very vocal Kosovo seems very likely to me.
     
  3. Ugg thread starter macrumors 68000

    Ugg

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    I'm sure that the "threat" of cutting off supplies will be a powerful bargaining chip for Putin, especially since as you state, the EU's stance hasn't coalesced into a single voice.

    As far as rogue threats go, I think it's quite serious. There may be no government sanctioned revolt, but there will definitely be a private revolt. Tempers run too hot in the Balkans for there not to be.

    While the volume level may be turned up in Pristina, if there's any substantial Serbian flow of migrants from Kosovo into Serbia, their voice won't carry much weight.

    Serbia also controls the electricity that flows into Kosovo. Whatever ends up happening, it isn't going to be pretty.
     
  4. takao macrumors 68040

    takao

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    #4
    i doubt putin will use the gas reserves ... i think it will end up lots of big words and that's about it
    if it were the ukraine joining the EU i would agree but kosovo ? there is little of economical interest there as well as in serbia who both are still recovering and too far off from russia to put a serious influence there

    over the next years the influence of the Eu in the balkan will only grow (croatia is very close and will very likely be the next) and sooner or later serbia will be surrounded by EU countries
     
  5. Ugg thread starter macrumors 68000

    Ugg

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    Well, it's gotten off to a mild start so far.

    I was sort of surprised that Russia has taken such a low key approach. Time will tell....
     
  6. solvs macrumors 603

    solvs

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    #6
    Though they're making a big stink right now, in the long run, do you think they'll really care that much? Maybe I just don't see the negatives. To be honest though, I don't know that much about it.
     

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