What do you think - more FUD or is there some truth in this?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by ravenvii, Sep 22, 2009.

  1. ravenvii macrumors 604

    ravenvii

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    #1
  2. jav6454 macrumors P6

    jav6454

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  3. Shivetya macrumors 65816

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    #3
    I do agree the dollar will be near worthless soon. This orgy of spending us into debt is going to bite us in the ass. The one problem or many that many of us Conservatives had with Bush was his free spending habits. He didn't seem willing to veto any budget busting bill. Gutless.

    Now that we have a real idiot in the White House who thinks he can pass a magnitude of debt great that Bush to our kids. Of course the psycho spenders in Congress aren't helping one bit. So of course its going to tank the dollar.

    As such the only place to put your money is into companies which line up with whats coming in the future. As for airlines, I think he smoking crack. Any industry trapped by petroleum products is toast.
     
  4. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #4
    Looks like FUD has already claimed one victim.
     
  5. miloblithe macrumors 68020

    miloblithe

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    #5
    Could you define near worthless? Worthless relative to what?

    Say, then there's your investment...
     
  6. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #6
    I don't exactly see $1 = 1 Vietnamese dong :p.
     
  7. miloblithe macrumors 68020

    miloblithe

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    #7
    Considering the dollar has risen from 11,000+ Dong to the dollar in 1995 to over 18,000 today, me neither.

    I'd really like to see a concrete prediction from Shivetya, who seems to confident in the dollar's imminent collapse.
     
  8. jav6454 macrumors P6

    jav6454

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    [citation needed]


    =Me Thinks=
    Also, How is the dollar become worthless if my own home currency (Honduran Lempira) went from $1.00 = 18.54 to $1.00 = 19.02.

    I have reason to believe the dollar might be gaining strength.
     
  9. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #9
    With consumers having shifted to saving, the oilfield output is a little bit ahead of demand. That's holding prices relatively low. Foreign airlines don't have as high an operating overhead as do U.S. airlines, so for a while they may well see increased business as Asian countries expand. I don't believe it's a long-term good investment, however.

    The dollar is in a long-term trend of decline against various foreign currencies. The Euro is kissing $1.48 again. The Brazilian Real is now around 1.82, vice 2.02 some six or eight months ago. The Loonie, the Kiwi and the Aussie $ are all up. So is the Norwegian Krone, which should continue to do well due to its energy independence. Everbank.com's "Daily Pfennig" is an excellent source of very-knowledgeable commentary about money trends.

    The monetary policies of Obama/Geithner/Bernanke/Congress are adding to the national debt at an unprecedented rate, and the interest on that will suck up more tax dollars than are readily available in the face of the other increases in federal deficit spendng. Numerous arguments abound as to WHEN there will be Bad Things--but not IF.

    Overall, outside of short-term gambling actions in the NYSE, there is little there in which to safely invest. Not with an average P/E somewhere above 120, anyway. Why buy into unprofitable corporations? Many knowledgeable investors are bailing out, moving their money to BRIC equities or in countries which sell into BRIC. China buys iron ore from Australia, e.g., and food from Brazil.

    Foreign oil corporations, oilfield service companies (even in the U.S.), natural gas pipeline companies: These are reasonably wise arenas for investing if one does adequate homework.

    So, by and large, Faber is correct; the article doesn't speak to timing and length of term, unfortunately.

    'Rat
     
  10. Zombie Acorn macrumors 65816

    Zombie Acorn

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    #10
    I have a small amount invested in foreign currency, the market is too unpredictable at this point for me to drop any real money into it. I still think we are going to see another drop. As for the stability of the US dollar, I don't really have much faith, especially if we have very little to no regulation on the people handling/printing our money.
     
  11. miloblithe macrumors 68020

    miloblithe

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    Rat, I fail to see how "long term decline" (which I agree with) and "soon will be worthless" equate to the same thing.
     
  12. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #12
    Hey, I'm an optimist; Faber et al are pessimists. :D

    However: If foreign central banks and major corporations do stop buying our debt, the dollar could indeed fall way down toward "worthless".

    I remember when it took 350 Yen to buy a dollar. Now? 90. (In 1950 in Yokohama, I gave twelve greenback dollars for a pair of Nikon 7x50 binoculars. Infinitely superior to Bausch & Lomb. :))

    All other world fiat currencies have declined, obviously; eventhe Yen. That's the history of all fiat currencies, ever: Governments cause the degradation by inflating the currency. Gresham's Law always wins. It did in the days of the Roman Empire, and it hasn't yet stopped.
     
  13. Arran macrumors 68040

    Arran

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    #13
    IMHO, anyone dispensing free financial advice to the masses has got to be a little bit suspect.

    If you want good advice, you have to pay for it (or do your own research). Advantage comes from knowing something that everyone else doesn't.
     
  14. bradl macrumors 68040

    bradl

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    #14
    Not for nothing, but isn't the US dollar already worthless? I mean, for all intents and purposes, it's been worthless for the past 38 years, since Nixon took the dollar off the Gold Standard.

    BL.
     
  15. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #15
    Arran, anybody can offer an opinion on anything, just as you did. So Faber offered an opinion from his own knowledge--but it was generalized. If you want specifics, pay the man. A lot of us who look closely at what's going on in the world are happy as little kitty-cats to yak about what's going on. That's what people do. Whether or not to use any commentary is up to the reader/listener. But Faber has been publicly outspoken on investment ideas and trends for over twenty years that I know of, without giving specific information away as freebies.

    bradl, FDR took us away from a freely-convertible gold standard when he glommed onto our parents'/grandparents' gold coins and then devalued the dollar by 75%. Nixon put the screws to other countries' central banks by repudiating the Bretton Woods agreement and refusing to take back dollars via paying out gold--which is why DeGaulle quit NATO and threw us out of NATO's SHAPE in Paris. (Supreme Headquarters, Allied Powers, Europe. When I was stationed at HQ US European Command in Paris in 1956/1957, USAF Gen. Lauris Norstad, five stars, was the Big Bossman.)

    Anyhow, Keynesian economics is why we don't have new cars at $2,000 or nickel coffee. No Winchester Model 70s at $54. And why wages have not kept pace with living costs. The dollar has lost 95% of its buying power since the creation of the FRB, with an accelerated rate post-LBJ.

    This present bunch of twits in power are well on their way to making things one helluva lot worse than way too many folks believe. The next several years are gonna see us descend into some serious economic misery.
     
  16. rasmasyean macrumors 6502a

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    #16
    Don’t take the comment literally. He just means that “investment” and such will shift from government to private industry around the corner. At some point in the near future, people will re-invest in industry and that’s where the majority of assets will migrate toward. So when you have cash, you will be missing out on growth valuation from holding a stake in a recovery from the recession. That’s if you believe there will be a turn-around. Many people are still burnt by this long recession (though lifestyle hasn’t been that harsh, it’s been a bit lower relative to recent times). But if there IS a recovery, then by the time you act on it, it would be too late, and hence your “US dollar” would have been a lemon during all that time you were holding it.

    And from what I’ve seen with these “economic predictions” it’s mostly hindsite that gives “pundits” their name. They often have some interest to rate this buy and rate that sell and whatever based on their own biased attempts to manipulate the market. Not to mention that they have no control over polito-economico-technologico-forces that come into play at random.
     
  17. rasmasyean macrumors 6502a

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    #17
    Yes, and that's called insider trading! :D
     
  18. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #18
    Faber is one of a group whose "hindsight" comes from knowledge of economic history. He is one among many whose predictive competency has led to many profitable investments. He is in no way unique.

    One method is to have some understanding of economics and trends, and take advantage. It's an old saying, "The trend is your friend," whether going long or going short.

    Consider: One reason Faber is interviewed is because of his track record of success...

    One guy worth tracking for economic data is Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Check out http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/.../Money-figures-show-theres-trouble-ahead.html

    'Rat
     

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