What effect do you think the VP debate can have?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by abijnk, Sep 26, 2008.

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What effect do you think the VP debate can have?

  1. No effect

    4 vote(s)
    6.9%
  2. Little effect

    20 vote(s)
    34.5%
  3. Moderate effect

    15 vote(s)
    25.9%
  4. Game changer

    19 vote(s)
    32.8%
  1. abijnk macrumors 68040

    abijnk

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    #1
    What effect do you think the VP debate can have?

    For my answer, I think the VP debate will further undermine Palin's credibility, but I don't necessarily think it will have a huge effect.
     
  2. DakotaGuy macrumors 68040

    DakotaGuy

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    #2
    Considering McCain's age and his general overall health, I think a lot of people will watch this closely. Most people figure that Joe Biden has the experience and leadership ability to step in on a moments notice, but people will watch Palin closely. They will want to see if she really is the best choice for the position and if she appears to be ready to step in at any moment. If McCain was 10 years younger and did not have any health issues people might not put as much importance on it.

    If she has the same performance in the debate that she had during Katie Couric's interview it could very well be a game changer.
     
  3. Ugg macrumors 68000

    Ugg

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    #3
    Palin will come up a loser in a big way. Once it sets in that old and tired McCain could possibly die in office and she would become president, I think a lot of people will end up voting for Obama.
     
  4. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #4
    My guess is that Biden will wipe Palin out but this will have little effect on the outcome. The whole crux of this will be on what Obama and McCain say in the next debate or two, and what they say to the press. All scandals, if any, are out, and people know the two have separate visions.

    A small percentage of this election's moderates may vote one way or the other based on the VP debate if they 1) really think they already know McCain and Obama, and are 2) really on the fence on this election.

    So far, Palin seemed to initially help for a week, but then seemed to be a liability for McCain. On the bright side for Palin, if she totally blows this debate, her weakening effect on McCain won't change.
     
  5. Prof. macrumors 601

    Prof.

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    #5
    I personally think the VP debate will destroy any credibility Palin may have. Biden is gonna tear her a new hole. I can't wait to watch the bloodbath...errr I mean debate.:D
     
  6. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #6
    Don't you think McCain's three or four point drop in recent weeks was attributed to that and the damage of Palin has already peaked? What are the odds of people thinking of McCain dying at this point and realizing all of a sudden that Palin is green. Everybody knows that already and if they are voting for the GOP ticket, they are probably hoping absolutely nothing happens to McCain.

    Palin, to me, is not scary based on her views, in the context that she was Alaska's governor in that conservative state, but by the fact she has almost no experience on a large level in population or in budget. Just think how much closer this race would be if McCain chose someone with much more experience that was already known like Romney. To go with an unknown was a most unwise move for McCain.
     
  7. motulist macrumors 68040

    motulist

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    #7
    It CAN be a game changer. I'm not saying it will, but it definitely has that potential. If people see that Palin is completely uneducated about almost everything, while Biden just shows that he's competent, then I think it will sway a lot of people.

    If she shows her ignorance and unpreparedness then not only will people not want her to be a heartbeat away from the presidency, but they will also rightly conclude that McCain's judgement these days is terrible even on matters of great importance. If the McCain from 10 or 15 years ago were running for president against Obama, I'd be very torn about who to vote for. But McCain has SERIOUSLY changed from who he once was, and his decision to select Palin for VP shows that the McCain of today is a hollow shell of his former self. If Palin looks stupid and unprepared to be president then people will see that the John McCain of today is not a man they want making decisions as their president.

    EDIT:

    Look at this. THIS is the woman who will be a heartbeat away from being the president. And this is the woman who John McCain judged to be most qualified to be president if he is unable to.

    Palin is the most ignorant, incapable, ill-informed, and unprepared politician to ever be this close to the presidency. This is scary stuff folks. And this is the person who McCain decided was the best person to be president in his stead.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZ9bP_AqHPg
     
  8. .Andy macrumors 68030

    .Andy

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  9. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #9
    Ordinarily I'd say the VP debate would have little effect. But this time it's different. With McCain's age and health being a factor, and the fact that this woman could become the President of the United States -- that suddenly raises the stakes.

    I don't think it'll be a game-changer, but I do think the imminent slaughter of Palin by Biden will send more votes Obama's way.
     
  10. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #10
    I think it will be big. We've had 3 interviews from her so far and she has shown that she is wholly uninformed on the issues. She even looked like a fool being interviewed by Hannity who lobbed softballs. The thing is, much of America has not seen these and I think many will tune into the debate. Wait until America gets a load of her and this takes over a 24 hour news cycle.

    What format is this debate taking? Will the candidates address each other directly like lat night's? If so, Biden will obliterate her.
     
  11. JG271 macrumors 6502a

    JG271

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    #11
    A moderate effect, i think. I think it will mostly move the remaining Hillary supporters firmly onto Obama's side. I've no idea how Biden can even debate with someone that doesn't even know what question she's just been asked.

    If Biden handles it well and is clever about how he deals with her, it'll damage the McCain campaign significantly. If he appears arrogant or insulting her intelligence (which would be hard not to do, if i was in his situation!) then maybe then it will only have a minimal effect.

    Either way, I'm looking forward to it. Maybe more for the comedy than the politics.
     
  12. BoyBach macrumors 68040

    BoyBach

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    #12
    Whilst I don't believe that a VP can win an election, a poor choice could certainly lose one.
     
  13. SwiftLives macrumors 65816

    SwiftLives

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    #13
    The expectations for Palin are incredibly low, and by extension, the expectations for Biden are incredibly high. If Biden makes any gaffe - no matter how small (and with Biden's track record, that's not outside the realm of possibility), Palin wins. Heck - If Palin even shows up to the debate, she's got an advantage. Personally, I don't think it's going to be the slaughterfest that people are expecting. And anything less than a slaughterfest is going to mean that Palin "exceeded expectations" and wins the debate.
     
  14. Erwin-Br macrumors 6502a

    Erwin-Br

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    #14
    Yes, I think so too. I also think they're training Palin around the clock now, so I doubt she'll make the big mistakes some might expect.
     
  15. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #15
    At the very least, it will provide me with some prime time entertainment :D
     
  16. bobber205 macrumors 68020

    bobber205

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    #16
    Next Thursday, if there IS a debate, will be the last day McCain has a chance in hell of winning... :D
     
  17. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #17
    I don't think, if you are believe all the presidential polls, in context tossing out the ultra conservative and ultra liberal ones, that McCain stands any chance, anywhere.

    Five thirty eight, and electoral-vote show no movement towards McCain after this debate, and if anything, a slight gain for Obama.

    McCain has no chance to reinvent himself this late in the game. America would have to suddenly be scared of a black man leading this country, and thus relive the California "Bradley" effect. During a California governor's race where Bradley, a black candidate, was way up in the polls the night before the election, many of his supporters flip flopped when they got to the polling booth and voted for the underdog white candidate. This has been long attributed to racism and thus called the "Bradley" effect. This shocked many political watchers since California is not exactly the easiest state to have a lackluster Republican candidate win.
     
  18. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

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    #18
    I think Sarah Palin will be the beneficiary of the soft bigotry of low expectations. Said low expectations will allow her to "win" the debate as long as she doesn't drool on herself.
     
  19. SwiftLives macrumors 65816

    SwiftLives

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    #19
    It's waaaay to early to be drawing conclusions from polling. Three days minimum before we see any movement from the debates. And in all likelihood, it will be a week.
     
  20. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #20
    Where are you getting that from? Did you watch the erractic, and instantaneous behavior in polling during the tug of war during the Democratic primaries? We live in a world with the internet now, and polls abound. But see my next paragraph.

    However, that being said, perhaps the old pre-internet polls which did take about 3 days (I worked for one of those companies many years ago) are probably to be trusted a lot more. When we would gather poll data for many companies like Gallup and Nielsen, a lot of what was worked out was the statistics of different samples. People would pay us a lot of money for our checking of stats for nationwide polls and my department put out the final report. But due to the internet and software that supposedly makes calculations quicker, polls have become far quicker to post, but somewhat less accurate.

    Day 1 would be gathering data via telegram, telephone fax, etc.

    Day 2 usually involved the stats from the analysts and putting together the report. I did late day 2 tasks.

    Day 3 included the next day air dispatches of this information.

    EDIT: There is movement 325-212 Obama, as of 9:55 pm pst sunday night, and he now has a better than 80% percent probability of winning. The presidential debate did not do well for McCain and now he has to rely on Sarah next? fivethirtyeight.com
     
  21. SwiftLives macrumors 65816

    SwiftLives

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    #21
    Well, the debate ended at 10:30 last night. That's a bit late for any polling. And I'm not referring to the snap polls, but rather the tracking polls used in such sites as electoral-vote.com and fivethiryeight.

    Personally, I'm not expecting any significant movement from this debate.
     
  22. shecky Guest

    shecky

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    #22
    Palin sounded so much like the Ms Teen USA bimbo that i am now even more frightened of her in a position of power.

    [​IMG]
     
  23. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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  24. Teh Don Ditty macrumors G4

    Teh Don Ditty

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  25. abijnk thread starter macrumors 68040

    abijnk

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    #25
    Well, what do you interpret it to be? :eek:
     

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