When do we find out election results

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Watabou, Nov 1, 2008.

  1. Watabou macrumors 68040

    Watabou

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    United States
    #1
    I've heard teachers and couple of people saying that they cant wait to find who the next president is going to be on November 5, while some say January 5. When do we exactly know? Surely it doesnt take just 1 day to count all the votes? :confused:

    Sorry if this is a stupid question but I just want to know. I'm getting anxious lol.
     
  2. TheAnswer macrumors 68030

    TheAnswer

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    #2
    We will find out on December 15th when the Electoral College meets.

    However, we should have a pretty accurate idea of how they will vote by late on next Tuesday or early next Wednesday.
     
  3. Watabou thread starter macrumors 68040

    Watabou

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  4. macfan881 macrumors 68020

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    #4
    unless it seems at a lanslide to or till someone concedes
     
  5. Ntombi macrumors 68040

    Ntombi

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    #5
    It takes less than one day to count the votes, which are done on a county basis. Even in the huge LA County (over 4.1 million registered--more than 30 states), where I live and work on election day, the votes are mostly counted within hours.

    There are provisional and absentee ballots, which take days, but the regular ballots go through readers almost immediately, and the results can be extrapolated from there. They aren't officially certified by the officials until later, but except in extreme cases, like Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004, the early results stand.

    I can tell you, as someone who runs a precinct, by the time we close and count our ballots (not the votes, just the ballots), and pack up everything to take to the drop-off site, they are ready right there to take the ballots up in a helicopter to be read at the county office. They do that all night, and we get really good preliminary results within an hour or so of closing, which get fleshed out as the night goes on. If you watch your local station, you'll see the results with the percentage of precincts reporting, and after a couple of hours, the results are pretty set.


    Even with the debacle of 2000, it didn't take until January for the Supreme Court to stop the count in FL, so there's no way it will take until January in this election. I'd be surprised if we don't have an answer by midnight PST.
     
  6. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #6
    Based on statistical models, within a 4% percent margin of error, ABC News radio has decided to project the winner of the election as early as the polls open on Tuesday, if possible, but earlier than any other news agency, which it can be due to the huge volume of polls taken on the historic numbers of voters who have voted absentee or early.

    Some states on the east coast will have projected winners with just a few percent of precincts reporting in, adding to inferences polls from absentee and early voters. Based solely on electoral votes, a winner will be very easy for ABC News to predict, however, and exact projection of popular vote tallies will be very hard to determine with great accuracy until the next day perhaps.

    A cavemen can predict, based on polls, who is likely to win most states, and which ones, during the morning of the 4th, but anybody who claims they can properly guess the exact popular vote numbers is either clairvoyant or just guessing, even in the very red states or very blue states.

    States like Indiana, Montana, Arizona, North Dakota, and Missouri won't be declared until the night of the 4th unless something drastically happens to the polls in the next 46.33 hours.

    I predict by noon EST, ABC will declare South Carolia "likely" to go for McCain, and New York "likely" to go for Obama. Later that afternoon, ABC News will put Pennsylvania as "likely" to go to Obama, as will "New Jersey" and a few other EST states. By that night, I think, ABC will declare Georgia for McCain and Florida for Obama, but those are pure guesses.

    Anyway, Utah for McCain for sure as I sit here right now, Sunday, November 2nd, 1:40 a.m. EST, and Hawaii for Obama. If I had cash, I would bet on those as sure things, but I am broke. And I say McCain takes Utah by more than 10 points and Obama takes Hawaii by more than ten points.
     
  7. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #7
    Typically, the news outlets will not call a state until the polls have closed, even the obvious ones like New York and California.

    And I doubt Florida will be called until nearly every vote is counted so we don't have a repeat of 2000. Plus, it will be too close to call anyways.
     
  8. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #8
    Only ABC news radio, California, has declared that they will do so. In 2004, they called it early and got every state right they broadcasted, but withheld their guesses on Ohio and a couple of other states. Their declarations will be called the "projected" winner, as opposed to the "actual" winner which can only be known once all the votes have been counted. I was glued to the radio that day and night, and to my knowledge, the earliest "projected" winners were the extremely obvious ones. Caveman logic. I bet we on Macrumors can call the states, one by one as soon as ABC does and be pretty accurate save a few battleground states.

    I have to say your state, Missouri, will likely be a very close one and could be projected as late as the wee hours on November 5th. What do you think?

    However, by the time Florida and Missouri are counted, Obama will have well over 300 EVs safely projected in his camp.
     
  9. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #9
    Which I've always wondered about. If somebody concedes, there is no force of law behind that, is there? I mean, if very late returns break in that person's favor, they've still won, right, even though they've "conceded"?

    "I find that offensive."

    [​IMG]

    (You knew somebody was going to do that, didn't you?)
     
  10. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #10
    I was waiting for that, thank you. :)
     
  11. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #11
    Missouri will be a tough one indeed. St. Louis and Kansas City are always the last areas to report. In the 2006 senate race, Jim Talent was ahead all night until at the very end when STL and KC came in and put Claire McCaskill over the top. Same thing happened in the primary, Clinton was a head until the very end when STL and KC came in and put Obama the top. That could very well be the case again Tuesday night.
     
  12. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

    Joined:
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    #13
    I will take your two weeks, and raise it by 8.5 months. :)

    McCain had a statistical lead in January, maybe, and February, maybe, but since then, it's been Obama, all the way!
     

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