Who thinks Obama can still pull it off?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by halfprep455, Jan 20, 2008.

  1. halfprep455 macrumors regular

    halfprep455

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    #1
    I know this question has probably been asked before in this forum but who still thinks that Obama has a chance of winning the nomination? I personally hope he wins I'm tired of Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton. I also really don't want to have to vote for McCain b/c I can't stand Clinton. It looks like Obama might win South Carolina but I think the Clintons are trying to portray him as another Al Sharpton.Lets hope that he can carry a few states on super Tuesday.
     
  2. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #2
    I think he still has a chance...


    And give me a break, Hillary is not worse than McCain or any of the repubs running.
     
  3. KingYaba macrumors 68040

    KingYaba

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    #3
    Obama certainly has a chance. It's the Edwards camp who are in trouble.
     
  4. Ugg macrumors 68000

    Ugg

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    #4
    I live in CA and vote by mail.

    This last week I got my ballot and sat down and for the first time, took a good hard look at the candidates. There's a lot I like about Obama but he's too centrist for my tastes and his lack of knowledge about foreign affairs scares me. We've had seven years of "Fortress America" mentality and that's enough.

    Hilary got my vote.
     
  5. Unspeaked macrumors 68020

    Unspeaked

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    #5
    If you take "super delegates" into account, Obama has no realistic chance.

    Hilary will probably win because she's the choice of the "establishment" (John Kerry not withstanding).

    I think what John Edwards decides to do as far as when to pull out, who to throw his support behind and what opportunities to pursue may still be the huge X factor in this, but at this point Obama isn't as close to Clinton as the media likes to report...
     
  6. themadchemist macrumors 68030

    themadchemist

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    #6
    I still don't think this will go to a floor fight at the convention, because that doesn't look good on television and is thus bad for the party. If it doesn't go all the way to the convention, the superdelegates will just break to the winner. If it is really close and it does end up going, then the delegates will matter. But remember, many of the superD's haven't spoken yet and you can be sure that more than a few will support Obama.
     
  7. Dont Hurt Me macrumors 603

    Dont Hurt Me

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    #7
    Im not a big fan of Hillary and am leaning OBama here in S.C. but who better to undo all the crap Bushco did the past 8 yrs?
     
  8. mrkramer macrumors 603

    mrkramer

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    #8
    I hope Obama is able to come back, but I am starting to think that he doesn't have much of a chance anymore.
     
  9. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #9
    Three primaries, all very close. I don't see how either candidate can be called out. Even Edwards still has an outside chance.

    The Democratic Party in California has allowed unaffiliated voters such as myself to vote in the primary. I'm going for Obama -- so I cancelled out Ugg. ;)
     
  10. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #10
    This would bother me, but Obama seems smart enough to have good advisors rather than surrounding himself with a bunch of "yes-men" as our current leader does. I have faith that the cabinet would be staffed with many qualified individuals who will compliment him and more than make up for any inexperience he might have.

    Of course by the time the primaries get to TX, it will probably be all but decided, and the chances of TX going Dem in the election are about as good as Kucinich getting the nomination.
     
  11. Lord Blackadder macrumors G5

    Lord Blackadder

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    #11
    Ohio's primary isn't till March 4, but I'm probably leaning towards Obama. We shall see.

    I agree that Obama, Clinton and Edwards are all still in it - and the GOP has by no means decided yet either.
     
  12. kainjow Moderator emeritus

    kainjow

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    #12
    I haven't been able to find this out yet, but do you know if in Ohio we have to be affiliated with a party to vote for someone?
     
  13. Lord Blackadder macrumors G5

    Lord Blackadder

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    #13
    Off the top of my head I believe you do - but you can register as a party member when you vote IIRC.

    I think I'm still registered Republican because I vote for McCain in the primary back in 2000...
     
  14. Unspeaked macrumors 68020

    Unspeaked

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    #14
    I agree Edwards is still theoretically in it, but his only chance at this point is to pull off a Super Tuesday miracle akin to Bill Clinton in '92 and I just don't see how that can happen with his lack of momentum - he's being all but ignored by the media and even his own party.

    The Time magazine cover was nice, but it can only take you so far...
     
  15. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #15
    If Clinton and Obama keep beating up on each other, who knows?
     
  16. Lord Blackadder macrumors G5

    Lord Blackadder

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    #16
    Edwards is probably hoping that Obama and Clinton get into a nasty mudslinging match that damages both of their images...that's the only way he'll make up lost ground as far as I can imagine.

    EDIT: IJ beat me to it....
     
  17. themadchemist macrumors 68030

    themadchemist

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    #17
    Unlike Clinton in '92, Edwards doesn't have a convincing, optimistic narrative for the media. There's no logical story to string together that would suggest that the Edwards campaign is still in this, no "comeback kid" phenomenon.
     
  18. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #18
    Obama is probably the odds on favorite for the nomination......in 2012 that is.......unless Gore runs and then it could be wide open.

    As for this year, time is running out. Obama has to start winning big or it's over. Certainly he'll win the South Carolina primary this saturday, but then he has to do really well in Florida on tuesday in order to have much hope of success on "Super Tuesday" the following week.
     
  19. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #19
    I don't understand this analysis. Obama wins Iowa. Clinton wins New Hampshire (by a nose). Nevada is a virtual tie, with delegates probably being awarded equally to Obama and Clinton. So why does Obama have to start "winning big or it's over?"
     
  20. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #20
    well, tis just my view of the situation.....YMMV......but wanna put a wager on it?

    Super Tuesday is now less than 2 weeks away and by the end of it, half of the states will have had their primaries. As of today, Clinton already has more delegates than Obama and Edwards combined (a tally). Big states such as Florida, New York, New Jersey, California and Illinois will all have voted by the end of Super Tuesday.

    At the moment only Illinois is looking like an Obama state (polls often are wrong of course!). If Obama's not in the lead after Super Tuesday, where's he going to get the votes to win?

    I think Obama supporters tend to look at New Hampshire and only see the small margin of Clinton's victory, however the majority of the reporting was about what a dramamtic comeback Clinton had made given the expectation of another big Obama win after his huge win in Iowa. The momentum Obama gained from Iowa faded significantly and now, unless he starts winning fast and big, he's stuck as an attractive but second place challenger to the front runner.
     
  21. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #21
    The only problem with that chart is that the Super Delegates can still change their minds, so those numbers don't necessarily mean anything. The current Delegate count has Obama ahead by 2 for pledged delegates, with the rest "leaning" one way, but still able to change their minds. The race is still very much in flux and while the Super Delegates may be indicating a preference a strong momentum shift by any candidate could change a lot of their minds.
     
  22. KingYaba macrumors 68040

    KingYaba

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    #22
    I fail to see how Clinton "won" the debate between the Three.

    Obama does have a point about Reagan. I think Clinton just wants to stir emotion and controversy because Obama recognized a Republican actually had the right idea ;) He appealed to both sides and I think that was his point?
     
  23. Dont Hurt Me macrumors 603

    Dont Hurt Me

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    #23
    Clinton is making a mistake using the Reagan thing. Reagan was well liked and I voted for him and so did millions of democrats.
     
  24. Pittsax macrumors 6502

    Pittsax

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    #24
    He never said Reagan was right about any of his ideas, just that he was able to bring both parties together with his vision of America. The fact that the Clintons have twisted that into somehow being an endorsement of Reagan and "Reaganomics" is crazy.

    I think Obama still has a chance, but only if he stops chasing Bill Clinton around and goes back to his initial message that won him the primary in Iowa.
     
  25. dsnort macrumors 68000

    dsnort

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    #25
    Obama is an appealing candidate in that he seems to speak from his convictions. He is reminiscent of the Jimmy Stewart character in the movie "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington."

    Unfortunately, "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington" was a movie, and in real life I fully expect to see Obama tread under the grinding wheels of the establishment, in this case, Hillary. Welcome to "Politics American". Where what you say is more important than what you are, or what you believe.

    (In case you're curious, I happen to believe that ALL the candidates for any office believe EXACTLY the same thing. That you should vote for them.)
     

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