Who will blink first in US-NK "Mexican standoff"

PracticalMac

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Trump has dropped 3 bombs (Syria, Afghanistan, Pence) and he is using it as a huge threat against Un (chi)

Trump is using his full business aggressiveness to force Un (chi) to back down.

I would be completely shocked if Trump backs down. He takes his time, changes tactics or put on back burner, but (almost?) never backs down.

I think it is 90% in China's court now.

PS, "Unchi" is a Japanese word (look up translation).
 
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0007776

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Jul 11, 2006
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North Korea will back down.
No they won't. One of three things will happen, Trump will back down, NK will do nothing anymore aggressive than they have in the recent past, and Trump will use something as an excuse to launch a preemptive strike, which will turn Russia and China against us. Or Trump will be like a 3 year old poking a hornets nest without realizing the potential consequences and he will get stung. Alaska is in range of the North's missiles that we know work, so if they are able to put a nuke on one of them Anchorage or Fairbanks might make a tempting target to say that they struck the US. Otherwise they might put one in a container and detonate it in a major port, like LA, San Francisco, or Seattle.
 

steve knight

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Jan 28, 2009
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Nk can keep on doing what they do and unless we attack them nothing has to change on their end. But now we have a rooster that loves to crow and Seems to be about as smart with his feathers are all ruffled. Nk has jot done anything new but our new king is all butt hurt about it.
 

PracticalMac

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North Korea will back down.
Un(chi) is basically a teen age brat who also thinks he is a bully.

China is only one who could take Un(chi)'s toys away.

The NK generals would probably like to see a war, also.
Reminisce about the old days in 1952.
 

yaxomoxay

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Mar 3, 2010
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Trump has dropped 3 bombs (Syria, Afghanistan, Pence) and he is using it as a huge threat against Un (chi)

Trump is using his full business aggressiveness to force Un (chi) to back down.

I would be completely shocked if Trump backs down. He takes his time, changes tactics or put on back burner, but (almost?) never backs down.

I think it is 90% in China's court now.

PS, "Unchi" is a Japanese word (look up translation).
If there is anyone backing down...
If it's unilateral, Trump will back down.
If China is deeply involved and seriously cooperating with the US - as I suspect - then NK will back down.
 

Eraserhead

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Nov 3, 2005
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I think China isn't stupid. They may not like Trump, but North Korea needs dealing with.
 

T'hain Esh Kelch

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Maybe China doesn't actually have any real power with North Korea. People have been assuming it did but perhaps not.
I guess they only have long term power over them, in the form of blocking the majority of goods transport in and out of the country. I think the NK leaders are too crazy to care about what either the Chinese or US says.
 

martint235

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Apr 13, 2016
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China are threatening oil sanctions against NK but I don't think it will come to that. NK will do a few weeks of missile tests and Trumpster will beat his chest and shout at them but then something else will grab his over-sugared attention and he'll go off and annoy another country for a bit. The world will continue to spin.
 

vrDrew

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Jan 31, 2010
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I would be completely shocked if Trump backs down. He takes his time, changes tactics or put on back burner, but (almost?) never backs down.
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You are correct. And that's what worries me.

Trump doesn't back down. But he also has a record that is considerably less than 100% when it comes to his reckless gambles. (See Trump Air, Trump Taj Mahal, Trump University, etc etc.)

The difference in this case, of course, is that the stakes are infinitely higher. A failed, or disastrous, North Korea policy doesn't just let the US declare strategic bankruptcy and walk away, leaving suppliers and lenders with unpaid bills. It leaves thousands of people dead; US strategic positions and partnerships in tatters; and the US itself considerably weakened for another generation.

Trump play checkers like a talented 10-year-old. But he's going up against a culture, and leaders, whose whole philosophy is more akin to that of the Go (围棋) master.

The situation vis-a-vis North Korea is infinitely more complicated than Trump understands. A fact that even he acknowledged after a few minutes sharing chocolate cake (which he understands) and chatting with the Chinese President (whom he doesn't.)

The United States ultimately won the Vietnam War. But it certainly didn't seem like it at the time. At the time it seemed like a tragic, disastrous humiliation. Which it was. But it could have been "won" decades earlier, with the consequent saving of millions of lives and trillions in treasure, with a well-executed strategic retreat.

By the way: Does anybody think that China lost the Vietnam War?

I'm not optimistic about the prospect of our bad-tempered checkers player charging headfirst into Asian geopolitics.
 

Huntn

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May 5, 2008
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No they won't. One of three things will happen, Trump will back down, NK will do nothing anymore aggressive than they have in the recent past, and Trump will use something as an excuse to launch a preemptive strike, which will turn Russia and China against us. Or Trump will be like a 3 year old poking a hornets nest without realizing the potential consequences and he will get stung. Alaska is in range of the North's missiles that we know work, so if they are able to put a nuke on one of them Anchorage or Fairbanks might make a tempting target to say that they struck the US. Otherwise they might put one in a container and detonate it in a major port, like LA, San Francisco, or Seattle.
According to this article, it's not been verified that N. Korea has a missile sized nuke, not that that clears up anything in the slightest. It's still a game of chicken, of which I don't believe Trump has any experience with where lives are at stake.
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People seem to forget that there is zero evidence of NK possessing nuclear weapons.
My impression is that they have conducted successful, but small ground tests. (Link) It's unknown if they have small missile/mortar capable devices.
 
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sim667

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Maybe China doesn't actually have any real power with North Korea. People have been assuming it did but perhaps not.
China will always want to maintain the status quo with DPRK, its a buffer between them and South Korea, where the US has bases.
 
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Mousse

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No they won't. One of three things will happen, Trump will back down, NK will do nothing anymore aggressive than they have in the recent past, and Trump will use something as an excuse to launch a preemptive strike, which will turn Russia and China against us. Or Trump will be like a 3 year old poking a hornets nest without realizing the potential consequences and he will get stung. Alaska is in range of the North's missiles that we know work, so if they are able to put a nuke on one of them Anchorage or Fairbanks might make a tempting target to say that they struck the US. Otherwise they might put one in a container and detonate it in a major port, like LA, San Francisco, or Seattle.
Where's option 4: The spooks (CIA) send in assassins who works with that Crazy Fat Kid's relatives to have an unfortunate accident befall him. If their ever was a dysfunctional family in the work, Crazy Fat Kid's family is it. I don't know may people who would have his own uncle killed.:confused: Uncles are the coolest family members a kid can have, second only to Grandmothers. Grandmothers are the best.:cool:
 
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Chew Toy McCoy

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North Korea Successfully Shoots Can Off Fence, Wiped Off Map By US. Fox News Airs 2 Hour Celebratory Orgy.
 

jpietrzak8

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Where's option 4: The spooks (CIA) send in assassins who works with that Crazy Fat Kid's relatives to have an unfortunate accident befall him.
And that will fix what? NK has set up a very powerful dictatorship, with the guy in control of the military having absolute control over the country. You bump off Crazy Fat Kid, I suspect Crazy Fat Kid's most powerful advisor, now in control of the military, will become dictator. You bump off advisor #1, somebody else gains control of the military, and becomes dictator.

Regime change is not pretty, nor easy. Killing a single man will not make NK's nukes disappear, nor its army, nor its governing philosophy.
 

unlinked

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Regime change is not pretty, nor easy. Killing a single man will not make NK's nukes disappear, nor its army, nor its governing philosophy.
I don't think governing philosophy is really the chief problem unless you consider it a nutocracy.
Even being ruled by a nut isn't usually that big a deal as long you don't have a nuke.
 

Mousse

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And that will fix what? NK has set up a very powerful dictatorship, with the guy in control of the military having absolute control over the country. You bump off Crazy Fat Kid, I suspect Crazy Fat Kid's most powerful advisor, now in control of the military, will become dictator. You bump off advisor #1, somebody else gains control of the military, and becomes dictator.

Regime change is not pretty, nor easy. Killing a single man will not make NK's nukes disappear, nor its army, nor its governing philosophy.
The only way a dictatorship can be held together is with a strongman. Kill off Crazy Fat Kid and let his lackeys and relatives fight among themselves for power. The top military guy might not be the guy who wrests control of the Gub'ment. If he already commanded enough loyalty from the rest of the North, he would have killed Fat Boy in a coup and become King in the North.

My only concern is Beijing might step in and turn NK to a puppet state. That's probably why the CIA's has not disposed of the teapot despot.
 

noekozz

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The only way I see NK backing down is with the influence of China. Personally I do not see them backing down, they've been preparing and fantasizing about this moment for decades, there's no real incentive for them to back down unless the pressure comes from China. Unless someone takes him out directly.
 

jpietrzak8

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I don't think governing philosophy is really the chief problem unless you consider it a nutocracy.
Even being ruled by a nut isn't usually that big a deal as long you don't have a nuke.
Ok, question: how does a "nutocracy" design, construct, and successfully test a nuke? How does a "nutocracy" survive in the first place?

No, the North Korean people are as patriotic as any other group of people. We may see them as oddballs, but they are going about the business of their lives successfully enough that the country has survived for decades now. Generations have grown up within the NK system.

Getting rid of a single man isn't going to suddenly turn them into Americans or something. No more so than getting rid of Saddam Hussein turned Iraqis into Americans.
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The only way a dictatorship can be held together is with a strongman. Kill off Crazy Fat Kid and let his lackeys and relatives fight among themselves for power. The top military guy might not be the guy who wrests control of the Gub'ment. If he already commanded enough loyalty from the rest of the North, he would have killed Fat Boy in a coup and become King in the North.
Fat Boy feels more like a puppet to me than the actual guy pulling the strings. The guys actually running the state would probably still be able to run the state just fine without him. Sure, they've made him the figurehead, and it'd take a bit of effort to construct a new figurehead, but it isn't all that hard to do.